Still waiting . . .


 . . . for the PMs to break one way or another. All major support levels we've been looking at held last week.

The silver weekly chart fell below the "grey zone" early in the week, but (somewhat predictably) didn't close there:





The linear chart of daily closing prices is probably the most interesting gold chart. The purple dotted line connects the two peaks of August/September. The $1635 level is now the new $1620, below which we're probably looking at a steep fall.

Can the weekly gold chart in euros (below) really break down here? The Fed/Wall St/Government/Media thieves and clowns have successfully fooled idiot Americans into thinking things are improving, but can Europeans be even stupider?




The $CCI has bounced off the 61% Fibonacci line we've been looking at.

Also keep an eye on the gold-silver ratio, approaching long term resistance, having drawn a nice, sloping head and shoulders pattern






4 comments:

Dr Durden said...
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Dr Durden said...

Looks like the CCI has found support at it's 38.2% retracement not it's 61.8%?

I was looking at silver weekly and the slow stoch's have popped up nicely over 20. Also, we did have a weekly higher high close to justify the momentum. And sentiment still seems crappy as ever.

That's all I gots. Carry on...

GM Jenkins said...

Hey Dr.D, thanks for dropping by ... good to know someone's reading this crap ;P

Not sure I get your pt about 38% vs. 62% ... haven't we retraced back down to a certain percentage of the high-low differential, which in this case (roughly) is [61.8% of $(690-325)] + $325?

I was in a rush and forgot to add it to the $CCI chart, but the 50 day and 21 day moving averages have looked very important since the September correction; we closed right above the 21-day, and I'm betting on a move to the 50-day at $576.

From the perspective of the Fed/USGov central planners, I take $CCI to be a proxy for the inflation that people feel, whatever might be said of "hedonics," seasonal adjustment, and all those other accounting tricks (which is not to say they have no merit at all; but people generally care about nominal values of things they really need, like food). Well, the 21-day is what I'd look at, since it's the average value of the index for the past trading month. Interestingly, the 21-day is now right at it's March 2008 peak (after which $CCI tanked 7.5% in a few days, only to rise quickly in the July 2008 bull trap preceding the collapse), and the 21-day MA is the lowest its been since Oct 2010, right at the midpoint of the strong QE2-related jump (that actually started getting priced in in June). Looking at it this waym it's interesting to me that QE1, QE2, and Operation Twist have had only a marginal effect on the $CCI ...

Ol'FordTrk said...

Don't worry GM, there are plenty folks reading the blog. Many, like myself, are in the same boat....still waiting. Not really too much to add. I was disappointed when gold dropped below its 150 dma. It held it for several years. Waiting with baited breath, not for the moon shot but for support!