I haven't been trading much, partly because I've been busy with other stuff, and partly because I'm convinced gold and silver (as you'll see below) are going to break up or down by the end of this month and I'm waiting for a signal. (I want nothing to do with the palpably fraudulent stock market; it will grind higher until it or the bond market collapses in a major way.) But though I'll be keeping an eye out for trading opportunities, my guess is that the first half of 2013 will be a snoozer, playing out much like the first half of 2010, with stocks peaking in the spring, and gold holding its own, surviving periodic beat downs, and not making headlines. My guess is that $2000 will be challenged this fall.
Short term, silver looks ok, definitely better than gold. Let's see if it can bust out of the wedge on the weekly (log) chart:
Silver, linear daily; note the purple band has crossed $30.
I have been following the 34-week and 55-week moving averages for a long time now. Note that throughout silver's secular bull market, the 34-week MA (pink) has generally remained above the 55-week (green). The pink crossed the green in July 2003, marking the beginning of silver's long-awaited ascent over $5. It has fallen below only twice since: Oct 2008, then in Jan 2012. Well, unless silver gets smashed, pink will cross green in the next 2 weeks (it will happen this week if silver is up). If it happens, I'd weigh it pretty heavily with respect to gauging when silver's correction will end.
Gold on the other hand is looking weak. If it doesn't close February above the 21-month MA (broken only once), I'd bet on a further downward close at the 36-month MA.
This is already shaping up to be the longest correction in the present bull market (see green and purple dashed horizontal lines below), but that shouldn't be surprising as I mentioned before. First, gold hasn't corrected with respect to price as much as in 2008, so it should correct more with respect to time; and second, $2000 is highly symbolic.
The "10-yr yields in gold" chart did not break out of the parabolic channel this week. I'll be watching that too.