I apologize for being out of commission lately. Frankly, I haven't had much to say since pointing out the obvious on Friday, April 12, that hugely important support had been broken and all bets were off. I've found all the subsequent talk about the "8 standard deviation event" (or whatever) that followed mildly ridiculous. I'm not sure how one gets those numbers, but had the ensuing crash been spread out over a few days, far from being a one in a trillion event, it would've been positively expected.
I mean, going back to the Screwtape silver symposium way back in February of last year, on the topic "When to buy silver?", our very own JdA warned that the day would come when
"you can say hello to $22 silver before you can mutter "I think I'd better log into my trading account". That's when you should buy."
Granted, she's hated silver ever since I brewed her some homemade "Silvershlager" and turned her blue, but I don't think she was predicting an 8 std deviation event.
[As an aside, looking back, I see that my contribution to the symposium was an exhortation to buy silver. And, in fact, those who took my advice would've made a 10% profit over the following 2 weeks. I also distinctly recall telling my readers to sell at precisely that point, but only in my subscription letter.]
Anyway, speaking of "standard deviations," back on Dec 31, I half-seriously expressed my 2013 prediction for silver in those terms. I felt at that time that a yearly close at the conservative blue trend line would've constituted a 3 standard deviation event.