tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post1302991322818687122..comments2023-09-10T09:54:59.309+01:00Comments on Screwtape Files: Chasing Chinese BarsLouis Cypherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07670126160101669248noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-31611834205895126262012-12-02T15:03:42.670+00:002012-12-02T15:03:42.670+00:00Warren,
Is this of interest?
http://www.spdrgold...Warren,<br /><br />Is this of interest?<br /><br />http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/media/GLD/file/Inspectorate_Certificate_Oct12_2011.pdfS Rochehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18070519576321568415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-45544500007354650062012-12-01T10:25:53.781+00:002012-12-01T10:25:53.781+00:00"Besides I admire the impressive list of enem..."Besides I admire the impressive list of enemies you are making in the silver community. I feel I can make a modest contribution to expanding that list just by posting here since I'm kinda 'pre-loathed' among the silverbugs."<br /><br />Ahhahahahah.<br /><br />I am starting to really like STF. Their growing list of enemies only raises their esteem in my eyes. :D<br /><br />TFMotley Foolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06902761012772262091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-32643440836096224012012-11-27T18:08:23.212+00:002012-11-27T18:08:23.212+00:00Warren,
Huge Kudos AGAIN! As a novice trying to u...Warren,<br /><br />Huge Kudos AGAIN! As a novice trying to understand all of this, I can't tell you how beneficial your work is regarding trying to ascertain the FACTS regarding PM flow. This is not to discount the work of all the other simians, but the bar list work is fantastic<br /><br />Milambermilamberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17412309240173757052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-65833611395876560612012-11-24T23:53:55.254+00:002012-11-24T23:53:55.254+00:00For the country refinery analysis you would also n...For the country refinery analysis you would also need to look at import/export figures in addition to domestic new mine production to get a handle on potential refinery output. Bron Sucheckihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00530576934994289879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-49463275701972473122012-11-24T02:30:33.207+00:002012-11-24T02:30:33.207+00:00Hi Warren,
Thanks for the feedback. I see you are...Hi Warren,<br /><br />Thanks for the feedback. I see you are on the case.<br /><br />Even if the numbers are not precise I think we can draw some inferences that may be useful.<br /><br />Interesting to see that both Russia and China are helping to relieve the silver shortage. The silverbugs should be giving these folks more love. In the post I may suggest that the silverbugs organize a group hug with them.<br /><br />(Guinness Book of Records material for sure! And a giant step toward world peace as well.)<br /><br />It also suggests a theme song for the silver post "Can You Feel The Love Tonight". I have to log off now I'm getting choked up just thinking about it.<br /><br />Cheerscostatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17932860172715556937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-32100877390800655322012-11-24T02:13:10.533+00:002012-11-24T02:13:10.533+00:00Hi JDA,
I'm very slow with this kind of thing...Hi JDA,<br /><br />I'm very slow with this kind of thing. I don't have FOFOA's natural ability. I'll try to get an outline to you next week.<br /><br />I have a mountain of paperwork to get through as well at the moment and I'm procrastinating on that as well. So I really need to get offline and get on with it.<br /><br />Cheerscostatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17932860172715556937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-41216780395327388872012-11-24T02:10:22.731+00:002012-11-24T02:10:22.731+00:00... Russia has a lot of refineries, most of which ...... Russia has a lot of refineries, most of which are recently accredited (within the last 10-15 years).<br /><br />Like China, they appear to have been supplying a lot of silver bars to the bullion market, but comparatively few gold bars - the 0.62% Russian inventory in the GLD list is wider defined from the database as as 870 gold bars (344,446 fine gold oz) which again is a fraction of the total in the market.<br /><br />When we're looking at the data we ought to be aware that many of the bars in the ETF system have had decades in the system to propagate to their current location, an advanced version of the 'geographical argument' can also be at play - I hope to investigate this as there is time.<br /><br />This 'dark inventory' question you speak of is the topic of my upcoming post, I've done the theory but I'm still collating the data for this investigation proper. It's a massive topic!! And very interesting.Warren Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-49908974108215324322012-11-24T01:58:54.026+00:002012-11-24T01:58:54.026+00:00@costata - it's a good question and something ...@costata - it's a good question and something I've considered as part of this larger investigation (i.e. to not just single out China). I may be able to construct a graph showing those 'missing' spots.<br /><br />It does get tricky because it would need to model elements (touched on here) such as <b>local bullion supply</b> and <b>individual refiner output (yearly)</b>. Bron has explained to me that the refinery industry is incredibly guarded of their output information so good data is not readily had. Once we gather enough information however, we can begin to infer production volumes based on known sequences. For example, all we need to see is the start and end of a sequence and we can infer (using probability) all the bars in between [ Using the 'Trinity B. Wartime Tank Number Calculation Methodology' ].<br /><br />Basically, yes - we can draw up a matrix of what we can't see vs. what is approximately expected vs. country production, but it will always be blurry resolution. We are all lucky that some independent researchers (Bron Suchecki, Nick Laird, Dominic Frisby) have given serious investigation into Chinese gold data recently.<br /><br />re: Turkey. Of the 3 refiners detailed in the <a href="http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=29&title=gold_list" rel="nofollow">LBMA Gold list</a>, we have records only for two. To be exact, there are 121 bars on record from those refiners, which tally to a grand 47,415 fine gold ounces (and no silver). Which is a tiny drop in the bucket compared with the ~ 100 million gold ounces inside the ETF/Depository system - so you might be onto something there, but we run into my point above: I don't know anything about Turkey's gold mining industry so I cannot comment on that.<br /><br />Regards, WarrenWarren Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-5189590875582054202012-11-24T01:35:37.823+00:002012-11-24T01:35:37.823+00:00(as an aside: how's your silver post coming al...(as an aside: how's your silver post coming along, Mr Costata?)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-48020762649305782592012-11-24T01:19:14.414+00:002012-11-24T01:19:14.414+00:00Warren,
I have an idea about the bar list project...Warren,<br /><br />I have an idea about the bar list project. I'm wondering how many other countries with LBMA approved refineries don't have any bars outside their borders. I don't know if, say, Russia has an LBMA approved refinery but if it does and there are no Russian bars in your database it might give us a hint about the "dark" flow.<br /><br />I mention Russia because a couple of years back the Kremlin announced that they were cutting back their annual gold acquisition program to 100 m/t.<br /><br />Annual production in Russia was claimed to be 180 m/t at the time so they clearly have a surplus available for export. Production should be increasing as well given the earlier successes in the Far East.<br /><br />There's also Turkey to consider. Are there any Turkish bars in the system?costatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17932860172715556937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-58738094988562152302012-11-23T08:26:23.298+00:002012-11-23T08:26:23.298+00:00Can't help liking the Silverfuturist... zany!
...Can't help liking the Silverfuturist... zany!<br /><br />His latest offering Bid vs Ask price on Kitco.<br /><br />He makes some obvious points about Comex which are always dismissed by the Silver Bugs conspiracy.<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDdhtG5moG4&list=UUBgYfi5EKCfD7ZJiIBDArSQ&index=1&feature=plcp<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-61493469539560996592012-11-22T07:58:32.367+00:002012-11-22T07:58:32.367+00:00Screwtapers,
I'll draft an outline of what I ...Screwtapers,<br /><br />I'll draft an outline of what I have in mind and send it to JDA. The main aims of the post will be to upset everyone, kick hornets' nests and ridicule nonsense.<br /><br />Thanks for the warm reception. BTW I should mention that publishing a post here isn't a slight to FOFOA. Many of the discussants at his blog are sick of the topic of silver. So I'm hoping the Screwtape audience will be more receptive to an "evil, lying scumbag"* like Uncle costata.<br /><br />*The accolade comes from one of the legion of fans I attracted during the FOFOA blog silver open forums.<br /><br />Besides I admire the impressive list of enemies you are making in the silver community. I feel I can make a modest contribution to expanding that list just by posting here since I'm kinda 'pre-loathed' among the silverbugs.costatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17932860172715556937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-77352606245706329072012-11-22T01:37:02.679+00:002012-11-22T01:37:02.679+00:00@costata, your thoughts on silver would be most we...@costata, your thoughts on silver would be most welcome on this publishing platform - quite appropriate - most of us have followed your work in FOFOA's comment section.<br /><br />JdA's email is via her blogger profile (you are possibly already in this process so I will not intefere). Regards, WarrenWarren Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-73079560979307897532012-11-21T23:47:56.301+00:002012-11-21T23:47:56.301+00:00@costata - go on then. Send me your email address....@costata - go on then. Send me your email address.<br /><br />But don't go upsetting anyone, kicking hornets' nests, or ridiculing nonsense.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-4148119187329607512012-11-21T20:56:47.771+00:002012-11-21T20:56:47.771+00:00¡Give Uncle Costata the floor, por favor!¡Give Uncle Costata the floor, por favor!Tonyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08648066075018216854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-62668294147864259092012-11-21T18:56:53.819+00:002012-11-21T18:56:53.819+00:00I feel a silver post coming on. If Screwtape would...I feel a silver post coming on. If Screwtape would like to host it let me know.costatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17932860172715556937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-64159954253021603692012-11-21T08:25:32.483+00:002012-11-21T08:25:32.483+00:00"Silver Update 11/20/12 Massive Silver Suppre..."Silver Update 11/20/12 Massive Silver Suppression"<br /><br />Another rant by BrotherJohn using the words of BullionBulls.<br /><br />I'm becoming more and more convinced that "conspiracy" and "shortage" of Silver is just another fairy-tale like religion. There seems to be a connection between the people that specialise in Silver and religion. Ted Butler is like one of their "disciples". He writes something so the rest of the Silver gurus take it as gospel. A bit like the Bible.<br /><br />Your evidence shows no shortage of Silver. It seems to me that the Silver sellers are only to happy to go along with the "shortage and smack-down" theory because it helps sales.<br /><br />BullionVault never enters into this argument and have told me that they never have problems with Silver. Nor do Perth Mint. The only people that hint at problems are people like Sprott and people on King World News who are clever enough to promote their books.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-55016850887489756212012-11-20T23:12:45.903+00:002012-11-20T23:12:45.903+00:00[updating my comment for clarity]
@freegoldfuturi...[updating my comment for clarity]<br /><br />@freegoldfuturist, I've contacted Jim Willie asking him if those folk are the same as the <a href="http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/p/wynter-benton-myth.html" rel="nofollow">Wynter Benton Group</a>. Truth be told I am dying to know why these guys didn't show up for their price calling demo, specifically since there doesn't seem to have been any Global MF-style events lately which would account for their disappearance! Their price target of $50 silver by end of December seems attainable, but I doubt that anyone would ever attribute the price rise to their doing at this point.<br /><br />p.s. all, I've just been looking at Nick Laird's charts for China/Hong Kong gold exports ... very interesting. big spikes in the last couple of years, with China getting a lot of refined gold from Hong Kong. This is a new chart from Sharelynx, Nick is using data from <a href="http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/so230.jsp" rel="nofollow">here</a>. On the surface, this appears to nuke the 'Hong Kong is China's gold argument. I don't know what it all means but combined with everything else, it seems obvious there's a big FLOW of gold TO China. If the flow is currently in one direction then that more than accounts for the absence of LBMA gold bars. I imagine digging deeper will reveal a bit more, but I'm going to stick to my subject matter - which is bar list data - I'll leave the extrapolation to the experts.Warren Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-77380489272163854562012-11-20T11:57:13.945+00:002012-11-20T11:57:13.945+00:00Jim Willie... during the silver spike I remember h...Jim Willie... during the silver spike I remember him saying the "dirty dozen," a group of wealthy Asian buyers that he is in contact with, were going to bust the Comex.freegoldfuturisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00768423502138280251noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-3570390012667638012012-11-20T09:15:21.756+00:002012-11-20T09:15:21.756+00:00@ Lord Sidcup
That's exactly how I feel about...@ Lord Sidcup<br /><br />That's exactly how I feel about your list of "gurus"<br /><br />Great minds think alike.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-37422617916864973122012-11-20T07:36:03.206+00:002012-11-20T07:36:03.206+00:00The "raw gold" reference to 2,600t must ...The "raw gold" reference to 2,600t must be mine supply AND scrap as the Swiss don't refine all of the world's mine production!<br /><br />There are 4 refineries in Switzerland so not surprising they have a lot of gold flowing. The other big ones are Rand and Perth Mint.<br /><br />So I don't think those flows are anonymousing, just normal business for the Swiss.<br /><br />I don't place much store in Eric's claim. First he simplifies the demand change and then ignores the fact that maybe "where it is all coming from" is the 140,000t above ground stock held by private investors and in jewellery (ie he assumes no one is selling) and therefore concludes it MUST BE from central banks.Bron Sucheckihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00530576934994289879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-42974655758144881372012-11-20T05:13:19.345+00:002012-11-20T05:13:19.345+00:00Thanks everyone for your great thoughts! I will ke...Thanks everyone for your great thoughts! I will keep updating the argument list in the main article as these items get raised.<br /><br />We will also continue the data hunt for Chinese-refined gold 400oz bars, surely there has to be <i>at least one???</i> ETF Securities data is next to process and they have over 6 million gold ounces (more than Julius Baer). Regards, WarrenWarren Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-20990372805930424572012-11-20T02:40:45.252+00:002012-11-20T02:40:45.252+00:00Eric Sprott claims that there is a shortage of gol...Eric Sprott claims that there is a shortage of gold being filled by central banks. So obviously we can discount this possibility. That leaves reprocessing IMHO. I'll leave you good people in peace now.<br /><br />Cheers<br /><br />http://usawatchdog.com/central-banks-gold-likely-gone-eric-sprott/costatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17932860172715556937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-81496621562147757462012-11-20T02:25:09.329+00:002012-11-20T02:25:09.329+00:00I would also like to put this article on the table...I would also like to put this article on the table for discussion. Where is this gold coming from and where is it going to?<br /><br />According to this report (my emphasis):<br /><br /><i>It is difficult to visualise the enormous quantity of gold that arrives in Switzerland every year. In 2011, over 2,600 metric tons of <b>raw gold</b> were imported into the country, to a total value of SFr96 billion ($103 billion). This was a record, the quantity having more than doubled over the last ten years, <b>not including the gold that transits through Swiss free ports</b>.</i><br /><br />http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/Switzerland:_the_world_s_gold_hub.html?cid=33706126<br /><br />"Raw" gold? Perhaps Bron could give us a net figure for available raw gold after deducting all of the mint output worldwide. It might give us an insight into how much of the gold stock is flowing. I suppose it's possible this Swiss gold inflow is all mine supply and scrap.<br /><br />But it makes me wonder if this is some kind of "money laundering" or 'anonymousing' or downsizing of 400 oz bars on a massive scale. Perhaps all three.costatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17932860172715556937noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-22923307021744982992012-11-20T02:02:16.213+00:002012-11-20T02:02:16.213+00:00Great sleuthing Warren.
(Bron weighed in while I ...Great sleuthing Warren.<br /><br />(Bron weighed in while I was typing this comment. I just read his comments so I'll post mine with no changes.)<br /><br />The Chinese bar issue is vexing. What does it mean? I think all theories should be entertained for now. Let's look for the simplest explanation we can find.<br /><br />I haven't been following the HKMEX takeover of LME. I assume that it is proceeding. Given the huge inventories of commodities China is sitting on perhaps the plan is to shift the trade to Asia and use the LME as a branch office.<br /><br />Creating a new 1kg standard would make sense if you wanted to establish new trading hubs for gold in Asia that are big enough to challenge London and other venues.<br /><br />Trade settlement doesn't wash as an argument for China to produce 400 oz bars. They run a persistent trade surplus. Any flow of gold should be inward or lateral once the ownership of the gold changes hands i.e. transit through Switzerland to another destination.<br /><br />So my contribution to the Occam's Razor competition is the Chinese aren't producing London good delivery bars in large quantities therefore they don't show up in Warren's bar list project.<br /><br />(And they couldn't give a rat's arse about silver and that is why they are shipping in size to Western markets in standard "Western" bar sizes.)costatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17932860172715556937noreply@blogger.com