tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post2312251347518592821..comments2023-09-10T09:54:59.309+01:00Comments on Screwtape Files: Martin Armstrong on GovernmentLouis Cypherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07670126160101669248noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-18855575395520866312012-01-03T06:42:54.669+00:002012-01-03T06:42:54.669+00:00Pamplona, if you're still reading this thread,...Pamplona, if you're still reading this thread, I checked out the gold:oil ratio vs. the VIX. The correlation has indeed become steadily strong (I like to look at 50 or 100 day correlations on stockcharts; otherwise there's too much noise). I guess the one objection i'd have to your interpretation is that, glancing at the 5-10 year history, I wouldn't say in general that times when the correlation btwn gold:oil and the VIX was low/negative were necessarily times of greed buying vs fear (although that certainly seems to be the case for 2011). Am i missing something? Also, I'd be interested to know why you chose gold:oil and not e.g. gold:copper (which has an even better fit, even historically).GM Jenkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-24753339175399781322012-01-02T01:36:03.525+00:002012-01-02T01:36:03.525+00:00Hi FOFOA, thanks for dropping by ;P
Hi Brian, you...Hi FOFOA, thanks for dropping by ;P<br /><br />Hi Brian, you're quite right and I should disclose that our household has been preparing for (and is prepared for) a Freegold event whether it occurs tomorrow or over the next couple of decades. FOFOA sent me a few good counterpoints to my above theory, which I'll paraphrase quickly:<br /><br /><i>1. The current demise of the dollar appears to be accelerating exponentially and Freegold will actually make fiat stable and sustainable (so it's appearance should be on the immediate horizon rather than the longer term).<br /><br />2. The Martin Armstrong graph describes the longer process of coin re-issuing, which does take time - i.e. actual gathering, melting and minting - the Roman's had to do it all by hand, they did not have an electronic printing press like we do today.<br /></i><br /><br />He also states: '<i>The contract market cannot possibly go along for the ride. It makes sense only as long as gold is still at least partly treated as just another commodity.</i>'<br /><br />I'm wondering if the large gold ETF's are going to play a role in that, as long as they are around it means that gold is still subject to all the distortions which leverage brings, and when I observe the market I see the ETF's growing in size, not diminishing in structure.<br /><br />Anyway, I'll be keeping an eye on this over 2012 and trying to refine my theories - supported by data of course, from my database which I am constantly working on. But I'm confident and happy that 2012 will <b>not</b> bring societal collapse <b>nor</b> destruction of the Euro - it won't have a comex default either (a $60 price tag on silver would be nice though, I'm bullish).Warren Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-61226329301282816812012-01-01T17:23:20.833+00:002012-01-01T17:23:20.833+00:00Indeed Warren, even if you believe in the long tim...Indeed Warren, even if you believe in the long timeframe revaluation theory, why take the risk by not positioning yourself for it now?Spicy Guacamolehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01838769139269608716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-63578216834380864302012-01-01T08:30:38.686+00:002012-01-01T08:30:38.686+00:00"For the first time ever, I find myself in di...<i>"For the first time ever, I find myself in disagreement..."</i> <br /><br />Say WAT? Have you lost your mind, Warren?? <br /><br />Happy New Year!! ;)FOFOAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17152544684132776239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-53373290812778810472012-01-01T03:37:20.100+00:002012-01-01T03:37:20.100+00:00[Anyone evaluating my 'decades of freegold'...[Anyone evaluating my 'decades of freegold' theory should also reference FOFOA's <a href="http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/12/happy-new-year.html" rel="nofollow">Happy New Year</a>, in which he reminds his readers that a Ponzi unwind is often a sudden event, and puts forward a good case for why a controlled collapse rarely notifies folk in advance. For the first time ever, I find myself in disagreement (only about the timing) and am sticking with my long-timeframe revaluation theory.] :pWarren Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-25079850901340198172012-01-01T01:39:49.918+00:002012-01-01T01:39:49.918+00:00Thanks Pamplona - I'll look at that and get ba...Thanks Pamplona - I'll look at that and get back to you.GM Jenkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-86947391903662233902012-01-01T01:39:04.937+00:002012-01-01T01:39:04.937+00:00Michael H - you're right - I was talking about...Michael H - you're right - I was talking about purported raison d'etre, not actual history. (I think of Nietzsche's put down of those who presumed social contracts were behind society; the conquering tribes who enslaved other cultures: "what had they to do with contracts!") On the other hand, even with the most cynical view of government, there's a continuum of what you may call justice, wherein the US was originally pretty good. But Ben Franklin's quote is apropos: "A republic, if you can keep it."GM Jenkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-63084631308503423642011-12-30T21:27:59.164+00:002011-12-30T21:27:59.164+00:00GM, do you have any opinions on Gold Oil Ratio vs ...GM, do you have any opinions on Gold Oil Ratio vs VIX? The two seem to show strong correlation. The reason I ask is, in my mind, this would seem to indicate that gold is still much more of a fear trade than a greed-fueled bubble, even at the highs earlier in the year.<br />Thanks in advancePamplonahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15060439383588029457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-62095550474684256402011-12-30T17:48:58.620+00:002011-12-30T17:48:58.620+00:00Warren,
I like your 100 year timeline for the fre...Warren,<br /><br />I like your 100 year timeline for the freegold transition. In particular, I have two hangups with a flash revaluation: 1. the resulting mining and panning boom, and 2. the response of people with wedding bands, etc.<br /><br />On a longer timeline, these issues will sort themselves out naturally.<br /><br />GM,<br /><br /><i>"governments now exist almost entirely for themselves, when of course their original raison d'etre was service to the common good."</i><br /><br />Why is it "of course" that governments originally existed for the common good?<br /><br />I think governments exist to protect the powerful few from the powerless many. In previous time, power meant violence so this relationship was pretty obvious. Nowadays power means money so the relationship is more cleverly concealed.<br /><br />What is true and what we are told are two different things. All governments like to tell their citizens that they work for the common good, so that they submit meekly to being ruled.<br /><br />What is changing is not the government, but the recognition of what the government was always about.Michael Hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08900572113023618278noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-4763858979560048942011-12-29T15:39:43.066+00:002011-12-29T15:39:43.066+00:00GM, I'll ensure your painted portrait is in my...GM, I'll ensure your painted portrait is in my house if you help me negotiate these markets... my new theories give me a weird feeling of confidence. If the direction of gold is set to move strongly upward over many years and there is no prospect of physical-contract decoupling, then navigating the peaks and troughs is all that's required to (mix metaphors) shoot fish in the barrel.<br /><br />The 100-year theme is sobering. What is certain is that these words will live on in the Google machine (but swamped by an ever-growing digital tide). Makes you consider what legacy you will leave and whether that will be one of adding value to society or destroying it. The local government corruption and waste in this state goes pretty deep, and the middle class foot the bill for most of it.<br /><br />[Looks like Australia is similar to America in many ways. '<i>Need money for the train</i>' is (I think) identical to '<i>Need money for gas</i>' which works until you spot the same person needing more train money a week later in a different location (real story - I don't help people any more). We too have cops who sit behind their speed cameras at the base of a hill and catch the cars which naturally gain a little speed on the way down. At least Australian's are not allowed to carry guns .. your account sounds scary].Warren Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-13779465156932040012011-12-29T14:39:24.434+00:002011-12-29T14:39:24.434+00:00The story of the taxman trying to steal from your ...The story of the taxman trying to steal from your mother is infuriating, it's a really strong example of the shift that's occurred all around the world where governments now exist almost entirely for themselves, when of course their original raison d'etre was service to the common good. Unfortunately, an entity that exists for itself won't change on its own volition, ther emust be some real exogenous shock. <br /><br />On the theme of <a href="http://en.metapedia.org/wiki/Anarcho-tyranny" rel="nofollow">anarcho-tyranny</a>, last summer I bought some food and was taking a shortcut through a back alley behind stores to my car and two assholes in a car pull up with some story about needing money for gas. I didn't give them anything and kept on my way, but there was definitely tension where they didnt give me much passing room and pretty much could've shot me and no-one would've known. Anyway, I get to my car and on my short drive home i get a speeding ticket. A cop was sitting there hiding in wait like a spider waiting for someone going 45 on an empty 30 mph street. <br /><br />Re: my painting in history books, if that happens it would surely be in the spirit of <a href="http://www.despair.com/lithographs.html" rel="nofollow">demotivational posters</a> e.g. "Mistakes: It could be that the purpose of your life is only to serve as a warning to others." and "Hundreds of years from now, it will not matter what my bank account was, the sort of house I lived in, or the kind of car I drove... But the world may be different because I did something so bafflingly crazy that my ruins become a tourist attraction."GM Jenkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-85233893423437813652011-12-29T06:16:00.311+00:002011-12-29T06:16:00.311+00:00Nice postNice postRobert LeRoy Parkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10590421224681538226noreply@blogger.com