tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post2317860684065194077..comments2023-09-10T09:54:59.309+01:00Comments on Screwtape Files: Sunday pre-game 6/23/2013Louis Cypherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07670126160101669248noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-51594432598306857282013-06-29T00:17:45.193+01:002013-06-29T00:17:45.193+01:00(Posted this on the previous thread by mistake, so...(Posted this on the previous thread by mistake, so here it is on the current one.)<br /><br />Just up!<br /><br />Trader Dan Norcini (http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com) just posted a most interesting 'theory' deduced from his reading of Friday's COT Report, titled 'Mining Companies Appear to be Engaging in Hedging Activities once Again'.<br /><br />That title says it all, but the lengthy post is certainly worth absorbing in detail.<br /><br />I should also include Trader Dan's earlier post on Friday, 28 June:<br />'Heavy Call Option activity in GLD', which is also worth your time to read (as ussual).<br /><br />SSLSlow Loris Larryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03904505579567180085noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-6683213992501886292013-06-28T19:06:29.128+01:002013-06-28T19:06:29.128+01:00Note to self: when making a trade based on a weekl...Note to self: when making a trade based on a weekly chart, wait till Friday. <br /><br />Could this be the bottom? GDXJ was up 10% earlier. Maybe.GM Jenkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-70264282399514962013-06-28T17:27:47.856+01:002013-06-28T17:27:47.856+01:00I am calling it. The bottom in silver is in. I am calling it. The bottom in silver is in. Fix the systemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08335584772279634407noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-71175205391917928392013-06-28T02:46:13.895+01:002013-06-28T02:46:13.895+01:00Long 10 yr, long silver, down ~8%. Ugh. Closed the...Long 10 yr, long silver, down ~8%. Ugh. Closed the trade today, looks like might've been the right move.GM Jenkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-53908988939203306502013-06-27T23:21:16.070+01:002013-06-27T23:21:16.070+01:00Hi SL,
yes, read the "In Gold we trust" ...Hi SL,<br />yes, read the "In Gold we trust" report.<br /><br />Just when I read the analysis, that this downbreak is statistically only possible every 5000yrs, therefore we are now safe, I look at the price of gold today......<br /><br />boaaaaa, again, how fast 5000yrs can pass while reading :D<br /><br />Seriously, I'm not angry nor desperate nor do I say it will not recover, but I'm just done with this stuff, never ever buy an ounce of this yellow shit again, because I guess lot's of other people will have the same feeling before this is over.<br />Greetz, AD<br /><br />P.S.<br />In Germany the BundesBank mints coins with 100€ face value (1/2oz), so maybe when it hit's face value we talk again ;DAdvocatusDiabolihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05290930478826481037noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-85048474042620623432013-06-27T21:49:44.597+01:002013-06-27T21:49:44.597+01:00Only on that post.
You'd miss me, admit it.Only on that post. <br /><br />You'd miss me, admit it.Gary Morganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09934552877086935070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-57080393086869436822013-06-27T21:35:15.746+01:002013-06-27T21:35:15.746+01:00SL said:
"I'll say no more ;)"
Is ...SL said:<br /><br />"I'll say no more ;)"<br /><br />Is that a promise? ;)<br /><br />Tonyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08648066075018216854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-43703254567599826922013-06-27T20:56:30.935+01:002013-06-27T20:56:30.935+01:00Meanwhile, in these boring markets, gold is down 2...Meanwhile, in these boring markets, gold is down 2.3%, and the HUI is up 2.3%.<br /><br />Gary Morganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09934552877086935070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-51679175492360818632013-06-27T20:54:29.198+01:002013-06-27T20:54:29.198+01:00@Tony,
Interesting.
Ezra was both a doom-monger...@Tony,<br /><br />Interesting. <br /><br />Ezra was both a doom-monger as well as a poor timer of monetary matters, such as the dollar's demise and gold's ascendency.<br /><br />I'll say no more ;)Gary Morganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09934552877086935070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-24115422010417637642013-06-27T20:21:48.379+01:002013-06-27T20:21:48.379+01:00@ SL,
A pierce though $1000 would be psychologica...@ SL,<br /><br />A pierce though $1000 would be psychologically damning. Let's watch and see...<br /><br />By the way, I came across this 1967 quote from former Secretary of Agriculture, Ezra T. Benson (you'd think he penned it last week--it's quite eery):<br /><br />"The pending economic crisis that now faces America is painfully obvious. If even a fraction of potential foreign claims against our gold supply were presented to the Treasury, we would have to renege on our promise. We would be forced to repudiate our own currency on the world market. Foreign investors, who would be left holding the bag with American dollars, would dump them at tremendous discounts in return for more stable currencies, or for gold itself. The American dollar both abroad and at home would suffer the loss of public confidence. If the government can renege on its international monetary promises, what is to prevent it from doing the same on its domestic promises? How really secure would be government guarantees behind Federal Housing Administration loans, Savings and Loan Insurance, government bonds, or even social security?<br /><br />"Even though American citizens would still be forced by law to honor the same pieces of paper as though they were real money, instinctively they would rush and convert their paper currency into tangible material goods which could be used as barter. As in Germany and other nations that have previously traveled this road, the rush to get rid of dollars and acquire tangibles would rapidly accelerate the visible effects of inflation to where it might cost one hundred dollars or more for a single loaf of bread. Hoarded silver coins would begin to reappear as a separate monetary system which, since they have intrinsic value would remain firm, while printed paper money finally would become worth exactly it's proper value--the paper it is printed on! Everyone's savings would be wiped out totally. No one could escape.<br /><br />"One can only imagine what such conditions would do to the stock market and to industry. Uncertainty over the future would cause the consumer to halt all spending except for the barest necessities. Market for such items as television sets, automobiles, furniture, new homes, and entertainment would dry up almost overnight. With no one buying, firms would have to close down and lay off their employees. Unemployment would further aggravate the buying freeze, and the nation would plunge into a depression that would make the 1930s look like prosperity. At least the dollar was sound in those days. In fact, since it was a firm currency, its value actually went up as related to the amount of goods, which declined through reduced production. Next time around, however, the problems of unemployment and low production will be compounded by a monetary system that will be utterly worthless. All the government controls and so-called guarantees in the world will not be able to prevent it, because every one of them is based on the assumption that the people will continue to honor printing press money. But once the government itself openly refuses to honor it--as it must if foreign demands for gold continue--it is likely that the American people will soon follow suit. This in a nutshell is the so-called 'gold problem.”Tonyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08648066075018216854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-83409282349824765322013-06-27T19:44:14.694+01:002013-06-27T19:44:14.694+01:00@Tony,
re JdA's arse, I'm going for a bri...@Tony,<br /><br />re JdA's arse, I'm going for a brief pierce through $1,000, maybe down to $955 intraday, then that's it. <br /><br />Me and my bullion dealer need to have a little chat right then!!Gary Morganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09934552877086935070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-63907609945264080072013-06-27T17:26:17.206+01:002013-06-27T17:26:17.206+01:00Gold followers may find this of interest (no FG fo...Gold followers may find this of interest (no FG followers need not bother though).<br /><br />http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2013/06/In-GOLD-we-TRUST-2013-Incrementum-Extended-Version.pdf<br /><br />Gary Morganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09934552877086935070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-78298585306963942462013-06-27T08:51:08.964+01:002013-06-27T08:51:08.964+01:00OKI all the geniuses and gurus that follow Screwta...OKI all the geniuses and gurus that follow Screwtape Files<br />I posed the question "What is the break-even retail price of a 1oz Gold coin like a Krugerrand."<br />Any number of people (at other sites as well) offered long convoluted explanations about how it really couldn't be defined. In other words they didn't have a clue but wanted to look as though they might know what they were talking about.<br /><br />Anyway, here are two articles that come close to setting the base-line for Gold.<br /><br />http://seekingalpha.com/article/1346991-the-true-all-in-cost-to-mine-gold-complete-2012-figures.<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-26/gold-drops-below-its-average-cash-cost<br /><br />So bearing this in mind I shall make a stab at $1300.<br /><br />The price may go lower short term but the effect will be that coins and mines will start disappearing.<br /><br />The price of a Krugerrand to day is $1294.13.<br /><br />The strange thing about Gold is that mines are the weakest hands. People that hold REAL Gold are usually strong hands. So why is Gold strange? Because unlike any other commodity or precious metal Gold holders do not sell when the price goes down and they do NOT sell when the price increases.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-64718707464902019802013-06-27T05:58:04.386+01:002013-06-27T05:58:04.386+01:00JDA said,
"I mentioned a few weeks ago that ...JDA said,<br /><br />"I mentioned a few weeks ago that gold would probably settle somewhere between $1100 and $1300. Where exactly it will stop will become clearer as we get closer, obviously...<br /><br />...If you want me to pull a figure out of my arse, I'd say $1230. But we'll have to wait and see."<br /><br />Judging by the day's events, I'm guessing that figure in your arse is probably a lot closer to $1100 than $1230.<br />Tonyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08648066075018216854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-28545000099731611202013-06-26T22:19:31.046+01:002013-06-26T22:19:31.046+01:00Last day June metals contracts today. Get out, sta...Last day June metals contracts today. Get out, start fresh?<br /><br />http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_product_calendar_futures.html<br /><br />Funky Tapehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09271221564702147756noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-46392222001518608572013-06-26T19:55:55.730+01:002013-06-26T19:55:55.730+01:00Sry, forgot this link:
http://www.tfmetalsreport....Sry, forgot this link:<br /><br />http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/325928#comment-325928<br /><br />S Rochehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18070519576321568415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-78078075963105344382013-06-26T19:34:14.700+01:002013-06-26T19:34:14.700+01:00So, it seems the Chicoms were buying on credit, (o...So, it seems the Chicoms were buying on credit, (or using all that gold as collateral), and are now liquidating, or their positions are being liquidated for them.<br /><br />On the blog side of things it appears STFU's non-profit policy puts it ahead of the curve. <br /><br />The common thread: Gonzalo Lira<br /><br />http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/debunking-economics/S Rochehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18070519576321568415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-19945907560135620342013-06-26T14:38:59.804+01:002013-06-26T14:38:59.804+01:00In Bron's comment is encapsulated the dichotom...In Bron's comment is encapsulated the dichotomy of the current gold market, which at some point hopefully will be resolved.<br /><br />On the one hand Bron mentions 'spec traders' who presumably deal solely in futures and other bits of paper, and on the other hand we have mines reducing output and the expectation that supply will tighten which will support the market.<br /><br />Is there any common ground between these two markets anymore, and therefore the price, or is the price solely a paper thing? Of course the same applies to things like copper too, where massive paper financing deals have hidden supply in China, and apparently that is being unwound right now, so physical trumps paper it would seem. <br /><br />Gold is touted as the other extreme, where paper disguises both huge supply and of course distorts the price lower.<br /><br />The uncertainty leads me as agnostic as to where this ends up and when, but many are certain now is the time for a disconnect.<br /><br />Interesting times indeed.Gary Morganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09934552877086935070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-67998145514375795752013-06-26T12:56:09.529+01:002013-06-26T12:56:09.529+01:00Crazy market and terrible timing for me - currentl...Crazy market and terrible timing for me - currently in Melb doing some presentations to clients and a stockbroker (arranged a few weeks ago) - looks like some tough meetings in the next two days.<br /><br />I think some spec traders have sensed the market's weakness and pressing it hard but at these prices mine output will reduce and provide some support. Bron Sucheckihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00530576934994289879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-51537411476270222542013-06-26T11:39:07.610+01:002013-06-26T11:39:07.610+01:00@Warren,
Who knows?
But remember back in 1975/1...@Warren, <br /><br />Who knows?<br /><br />But remember back in 1975/1976 the gold price dropped around 48%, and there was no major paper shenanigans back then. Then it went up by 800% or so.<br /><br />So, 48% down from $1900 is $988!<br /><br />I'll start to get those freegold feelings when we're down below $1,000.<br /><br />Thinking of 'the market', they can see disinflation happening across the board in commodities, and they think they can see global tightening (Europe/China/US) and they are also seeing rates rise back into positive real territory.<br /><br />Who needs gold (the market thinks) in that scenario, who needed it when Volcker did his thing?<br /><br />Trouble is, the market is wrong about much of this, especially the view that the Fed and others are just going to sit by and let debt deflation happen. <br /><br />One thing, only one thing, is very certain. These gold prices are a screaming bargain, fill your boots with physical (but don't wait too long, just in case the freegolders are finally correct!).Gary Morganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09934552877086935070noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-7387678780571400402013-06-26T11:08:59.820+01:002013-06-26T11:08:59.820+01:00$1230 hit.
If anyone can look me in the eye and t...$1230 hit.<br /><br />If anyone can look me in the eye and tell me this is 'normal market behavior' then please do. Even at some point the whole 'hey its oversold right' has to kick in and give a dead cat bounce. Its like someone pulled out the plug and finally all the fetid water is going down the drain.<br /><br />Let it all burn.Warren Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-84319554898375891092013-06-26T04:14:56.918+01:002013-06-26T04:14:56.918+01:00@GM Jenkins,
PM Miners should decline further, I...@GM Jenkins, <br /><br />PM Miners should decline further, I guess Mish is not that good of a market timer after all. :)Jovanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01742717607062366425noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-53601340781266695422013-06-26T04:07:26.459+01:002013-06-26T04:07:26.459+01:00Meh, price is everything.
Speaking of price, silv...Meh, price is everything.<br /><br />Speaking of price, silver with an $18 handle and gold following right down with it inching toward $1230. <br /><br />Check out platinum. Lost it's 2011 support and the sellers are heavy. Nothing but air below. Damn.<br /><br />Funky Tapehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09271221564702147756noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-7028903672148076852013-06-25T22:08:38.649+01:002013-06-25T22:08:38.649+01:00@Sugarlover, Duggo:
I absolutely loved SLs answer...@Sugarlover, Duggo:<br /><br />I absolutely loved SLs answer, its perfectly short and clear. :)<br />Re collateral/liquidity shortages, what do you think of this guys writings:<br />http://scottskyrm.com/market-commentary/<br /><br />I am following him for some weeks now, and I hope he isnt fooling people because its pretty hard to get a second opinion on that stuff, at least for me....maybe someone here could point me to related articles/books from other sources?<br />It would be very much appreciated, as I am dying to get a grasp of the shadowbanking system - but hardly anybody else does in detail it seems...?<br /><br />anyways, great blog guys - I for one especially like the numbers/charts/ratios-thingy :Droughness_everywherehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16014482263233818455noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-1169012536846749682013-06-24T16:25:32.729+01:002013-06-24T16:25:32.729+01:00@SR,
Yes, it's no different that back in 200...@SR, <br /><br />Yes, it's no different that back in 2009/09 when credit crunched, and banks needed to raise cash they sold/leased gold to raise cash, as gold is always a liquid market with buyers happy to buy at lower prices.<br /><br />I don't believe that's a factor in gold's decline from Oct 2011 to May 2013, but it may explain some of the recent damage, and perhaps what lies ahead. <br /><br />Also, investors the world over (somehow) believe we are heading for a tightening cycle by the Fed, and so who needs gold when real rates turn positive. When tightening fails to materialise next year we'll be off to the races again, unless of course a gold crunch causes a freegolders dream to come true (hope so, but think not).<br /><br />Duggo, the effect on your shiny things is that temporarily they are worth less on the market. Time to buy though, not sell!Gary Morganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09934552877086935070noreply@blogger.com