tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post3800279934235017002..comments2023-09-10T09:54:59.309+01:00Comments on Screwtape Files: Gold and its miners look ready for a big moveLouis Cypherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07670126160101669248noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-76048404422856476732012-03-24T12:31:16.418+00:002012-03-24T12:31:16.418+00:00I just passed by to post a link, and re-read my co...I just passed by to post a link, and re-read my comment on Wednesday:<br /><br />"<i>RandGold (on the FTSE) was up by 4% today at one point too - that was one of my better buys yesterday [Tuesday]</i>"<br /><br />You have to laugh, really, don't you? If you didn't laugh, you'd cry... :-)<br /><br />Anyway, here's the link. It's a very bullish piece on gold miners from Zeal, which supports a lot of what I've been saying here:<br /><br />http://www.elliottwavemarketservice.com/2012/03/gold-stock-panic-levels/<br /><br />And the RandGold? I've been hoovering up more. This could be the most splendid buying opportunity in years, given that I think gold stocks in general are due for a big move up and RandGold now has a lot more upside than it had on Wednesday. But of course, if the situation takes a turn for the worst in Mali (which is entirely possible), then I will be ruing my decision to the end of time... Such is trading...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-13017719037086242432012-03-21T23:43:37.437+00:002012-03-21T23:43:37.437+00:00Nice to see a fellow Brit blogging on the miners. ...Nice to see a fellow Brit blogging on the miners. I'm most interested in the juniors at the moment, they have been punished for a year but the Canadian Venture is showing higher lows compared to Hui showing lower.<br /><br />Juniorgoldminerseeker<br /><br />Also for anyone keen on juniors Bill Cara is starting a new review of 100 juniors later this month.Goldmineseeker@gmail.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05250613037798129584noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-34031785376437357322012-03-21T21:48:44.244+00:002012-03-21T21:48:44.244+00:00Thanks JdA for all the tips; all taken on board.Thanks JdA for all the tips; all taken on board.Byzantiumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03988230488277382551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-47388287451656787802012-03-21T16:43:49.304+00:002012-03-21T16:43:49.304+00:00@Bradley: Yes! NEM and a few others had a reversal...@Bradley: Yes! NEM and a few others had a reversal day - pretty bullish action. And the GDX look like it's put in a sharp bottom too. RandGold (on the FTSE) was up by 4% today at one point too - that was one of my better buys yesterday.<br /><br />But we shouldn't get too excited yet. I stand by my calls that the miners are due a solid reversal. But that can take time. The gold price and the general state of the stock market remain important factors. In a year's time, I believe I will be delighted with the last weeks purchases (although I could of course be very, very wrong), but we could be at similar levels next week or even next month.<br /><br />Hence my use of the phrase 'buy zone'. I think we're in it, and I think the smart money will enter here. But a rocket shot - although possible - is not something I'm saying is a certainty or even especially likely.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-19857423279928350192012-03-21T16:35:07.926+00:002012-03-21T16:35:07.926+00:00@Byzantium - Actually, despite being a Brit, I'...@Byzantium - Actually, despite being a Brit, I'm no longer in that time zone, I'm afraid. Sorry about the delay in replying.<br /><br />Don't get me wrong - I have an online trading account, and I use it all the time. Any certificated shares are my 'keepers' - those great trades bought at bottoms which I plan to hold long term. Several online trading accounts give you the option of certificating shares for a small (usually very small) fee: shop around. <br /><br />Yes, the HUI is a mixed bag. But don't forget that the 15 companies are 'weighted'. GG, ABG and NEM are the most heavily weighted and can perhaps be considered less of a 'risk' than the smaller-weighted enterprises. I generally like a mix of seniors (from the HUI) and juniors (as lottery tickets), but each trader/investor has his/her own strategy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-53372552992658063402012-03-20T19:03:18.483+00:002012-03-20T19:03:18.483+00:00Even the never-do-wells AEM and KGC are having a d...Even the never-do-wells AEM and KGC are having a decent dayBradleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17121486214478741932noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-12590678362276643352012-03-20T19:00:48.760+00:002012-03-20T19:00:48.760+00:00what is encouraging however is the action of some ...what is encouraging however is the action of some of the miners, such as GG. The GDX is also actually up on the day, despite the metals getting rocked.Bradleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17121486214478741932noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-80284527883969513852012-03-20T18:12:00.034+00:002012-03-20T18:12:00.034+00:00Hi again, nice to chat with someone in the same ti...Hi again, nice to chat with someone in the same timezone.<br /><br />yeah the investor has to make a choice between the ease and agility of trading realtime through an online broker, or the avoidance of risk by owning the paper shares. Or is there a middle option?<br /><br />Regardless that I have an online trading account, but like most people, I haven't got a (human) broker, through whom I could buy / sell actual share certificates. How does one get / select one? Is there a materiality / viabilty threshold?<br /><br />Sorry for the dumb questions.<br /><br />Finally, interesting thing about the HUI, several of the companies had mine closures or other bad news specific to that company.... but ultimately drags the index downwards. It makes me worried where that stream of bad news might end, & why the market only responds to bad news (good news on the miners never seems to register on the price....)Byzantiumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03988230488277382551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-30994729878194102552012-03-20T17:53:02.420+00:002012-03-20T17:53:02.420+00:00So, all those caveats said, here goes:
For this c...So, all those caveats said, here goes:<br /><br />For this call, I'm buying individual mining equities. The HUI has 15 of them, but I've bought others too. I buy them through a UK broker. Some are listed on both US and UK indexes (e.g. RandGold and Barrick), and for those I'll buy the UK 'version' as the stocks are less liquid and so more volatile (meaning the ups are bigger ups). RandGold also has the advantage of having no stamp duty in the UK, which saves you 0.5% straight away.<br /><br />I'm a position trader, meaning I'm not looking for a quick in and out. When I buy an equity, I plan to hold it for a few months at least. But I am constantly looking for undervalued shares: those for which the RSI and the Slow Stochastic are near rock bottom. If sentiment is at similar levels, then it looks like a good deal to me.<br /><br />The fact that I made the original call with the HUI at around 495 (and bought in at those levels), then bought more at 475, and then again at 465 does not bother me in the slightest. I'm confident in the oversold state of the miners, so I'm happy to average in in this way. The lack of leverage makes this possible.<br /><br />The counterparty risk is that the company goes bust. I rate that as very low risk for the HUI miners. The shares are usually in my name, and even if they're not, I trust my Nominee broker. Perhaps one day I'll come unstuck because of this. We'll see...<br /><br />Finally, all my arguments above could easily have been applied to Lehman brothers in 2008. RSI and the Stochastics hit the floor, as did sentiment, and there was no general view it would <i>really</i> go bust. So don't trust bloggers for trading advice ;-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-1161278760420024902012-03-20T17:41:20.175+00:002012-03-20T17:41:20.175+00:00Hi Byzantium - thanks for passing by, and for leav...Hi Byzantium - thanks for passing by, and for leaving a comment - it's appreciated.<br /><br />I understand the lack of trust following MF Global. It was probably a game changer for retail investors (but not, in my opinion, the real money, which is what counts for market trends, after all). But it helps that I don't trade on leverage (I like to sleep at nights, and I'm not that greedy), and that I'm a bit old-fashioned in that I either get certificated shares or shares that I can certificate quickly and easily. And people dismiss the value of dividends (for cheap shares) too easily nowadays, in my opinion.<br /><br />I'm happy to tell you a bit more about how I trade, but I have to make clear that this is NOT trading advice. Everyone has their own style, and you'll notice that the above article carried no buy points or sell points, or even a discussion of which equities to buy (if readers choose to buy): all that's up to the reader, and none of my business. The reader can go ahead and short the HUI for all I care - Screwtape is <i>not</i> a trading site, and what readers do with their money is none of my business.<br /><br />I just have a general theme for my posts of identifying where 'smart money' might move next - I'm fascinated by money flows. And for me, the money flow is likely to come out of bonds and financial equities, and rotate into the mining sector. The charts suggest this, so I'm calling it. I could well be proven a fool (and a ruined fool at that) by the end of April. But let's wait and see...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-48252107138296264192012-03-20T17:04:26.991+00:002012-03-20T17:04:26.991+00:00Hi,
a fellow Brit here. Just found your blog thro...Hi,<br /><br />a fellow Brit here. Just found your blog through a TFmetals link.<br /><br />I have a HUI portfolio, but after MFGlobal, I do not trust the brokerage firm. (I am underwater now, so am stuck; hanging in for that breakout).<br /><br />Can I ask whether you are investing in the HUI as a UK citizen, and if so, how so, and your view as to the counterparty risks....?<br /><br />ThanksByzantiumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03988230488277382551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-54779304635879608802012-03-19T18:36:02.170+00:002012-03-19T18:36:02.170+00:00That said, I now need to add HMY and NEM to my Ful...That said, I now need to add HMY and NEM to my Full Disclosure... ;-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-50094866280669514782012-03-19T18:35:11.136+00:002012-03-19T18:35:11.136+00:00As of Monday, so far, so good. Both silver and gol...As of Monday, so far, so good. Both silver and gold have had a break, and the HUI got about 480 (although both gold and the HUI have since retreated).<br /><br />What we need now is confirmation. Mondays are traditional 'red' days (and so often a good time to buy). I'd hope to see some good action tomorrow (Tuesday) to give me some hope of confirmation of the move. Even if that doesn't transpire, however, I won't be too despondent. I have faith in the analysis presented above, but it might take a bit longer to get there.<br /><br />That said, as with all trades, I'm not emotionally attached to this one, and if the charts prove me wrong, then I'll exit and take the loss. The market makes widows from emotional attachment every week.<br /><br /><i>JdA</i>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com