tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post4166453620255453739..comments2023-09-10T09:54:59.309+01:00Comments on Screwtape Files: Friday Metals Wrap, 4/12/13Louis Cypherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07670126160101669248noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-36096345229541225312013-04-14T22:28:14.566+01:002013-04-14T22:28:14.566+01:00He may tell you a lot when his Sunday is getting t...He may tell you a lot when his Sunday is getting too boring. The question is why should he tell you the truth.<br /><br />What he was claiming is certainly not what it says in the Gold Reserve Act nor what was practised in the 1970s and 1980s. The Treasury makes all decisions, even which international conferences the chairman of the Fed board can attend. <br /><br />Quite the contrary. The Treasury department decides about interventions in the gold and foreign exchange markets and then directly instructs the trading desk at the New York Fed to implement it. Federal Reserve Board of Governors need not be consulted.<br /><br />Victor<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-19425182798987924402013-04-14T22:10:58.235+01:002013-04-14T22:10:58.235+01:00@Victor,
Rickards sees it the other way round, an...@Victor,<br /><br />Rickards sees it the other way round, and that from his meeting with Treasury it was clearly the case that they follow Fed.<br /><br />I cannot bring any personal experience to bear on this point.S Rochehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18070519576321568415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-19151907507346951972013-04-14T21:03:31.077+01:002013-04-14T21:03:31.077+01:00S Roche,
don't understand what you are trying...S Roche,<br /><br />don't understand what you are trying to say. I wrote his credibility was gone because in reality it is the Fed that follows the orders from the Treasury Department rather than vice versa.<br /><br />Victor<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-19498046250874999032013-04-14T20:31:28.013+01:002013-04-14T20:31:28.013+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.Edwardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03613197383283896190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-54650000869699462452013-04-14T19:26:58.269+01:002013-04-14T19:26:58.269+01:00@Victor re Rickards,
The first Rickards Tweet:
M...@Victor re Rickards,<br /><br />The first Rickards Tweet:<br /><br />My meetings @USTreasury went well. They were kind to invite me & I said what I came to say. This much clear: They take their lead from #Fed.<br /><br />Credibility intact.S Rochehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18070519576321568415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-41450276630961481222013-04-14T19:23:14.890+01:002013-04-14T19:23:14.890+01:00@Archer,
From the same article:
“What’s importan...@Archer,<br /><br />From the same article:<br /><br />“What’s important, however, is that what is being transferred to the government budget out of the profits made out of the sales of gold should cover first and foremost any potential loss that the central bank might have from its ELA.” Draghi<br /><br />We'll know soon enough.<br /><br /><br />@Victor,<br /><br />Don't think Lance L is relying on physical take-off to squeeze the shorts, just normal market reaction.S Rochehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18070519576321568415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-37669704178284670712013-04-14T17:38:15.449+01:002013-04-14T17:38:15.449+01:00If Bloomberg has it correct, Draghi is only insist...If Bloomberg has it correct, Draghi is only insisting how the proceeds from a gold sale are to be used, not that there must be a gold sale.<br /><br /><i>Asked about a letter he wrote to Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades, Draghi said the letter is “very, very clear.” He said the government must abide by the central bank’s handling of the gold stock, since it is independent from political control under European rules.</i><br /><br />Now, of course, if you are of the ZH persuasion, none of this can be believed and The Troika are out to force a gold sale.Archerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06371543262980512422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-76425442065501399592013-04-14T17:33:47.625+01:002013-04-14T17:33:47.625+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.Archerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06371543262980512422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-69879962905042240102013-04-14T17:32:48.653+01:002013-04-14T17:32:48.653+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.Archerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06371543262980512422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-75533737953815106532013-04-14T12:53:40.774+01:002013-04-14T12:53:40.774+01:00VtC
"I can only speculate about his motive, ...VtC<br /><br /><i>"I can only speculate about his motive, but Rickards is seriously misrepresenting how U.S. monetary policy works."</i><br /><br />You have oft refered to Hanlon's Razor. <br /><br />As Rickard's friends at the Treasury brief him, malicious motives are not required. <br />Rickards has several beliefs that are ludicrous to me, so may well fully believe what he claims to. <br /><br />Lord Sidcuphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08413661458819093344noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-5301786584683895792013-04-14T12:48:17.972+01:002013-04-14T12:48:17.972+01:00S Roche,
I am not sure Bloomberg are citing Dragh...<br />S Roche,<br /><br />I am not sure Bloomberg are citing Draghi correctly. That would be kind of a first.<br /><br />Assuming they do, doesn't Draghi's condition make the gold sale totally unattractive for the government of Cyprus?<br /><br />Victor<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-56647787470148901652013-04-14T12:42:29.867+01:002013-04-14T12:42:29.867+01:00S Roche,
Lance Lewis [...] is expecting a short s...S Roche,<br /><br /><i>Lance Lewis [...] is expecting a short squeeze.</i><br /><br />if what was traded was physical gold, in the same way as you would trade carrots or potatoes, yes, I could imagine a short squeeze. (Those who promised to deliver carrots but don't own any getting in trouble).<br /><br />But what is being traded in London is gold, the currency. Where would the short squeeze come from? If I have promised to sell you a gold contract next week, I can just write that contract for you and hedge my price exposure elsewhere. As long as I have the tools to hedge it, I don't even need to own any physical gold in order to do that. (And with the recent price drop, you can be sure that I will call all the mining companies whom I have lent money, and I will tell them they have to sell more gold forward, otherwise I would have to cut their credit lines).<br /><br />I am not saying there will not be any rebound starting on Monday. Maybe. That depends on the various market participants. I cannot predict that.<br /><br />But what I am saying is that the goldbug idea that there must be a short squeeze because of a lack of physical gold, is a castle in the air.<br /><br />The London market trades more than 2600 tonnes per trading day. The world mining production is about 11 tonnes per trading day. Your guess as to the ratio of paper vs physical gold trading. <br /><br />You simply won't get any short squeeze because the price of paper gold and the price of physical gold are the same by definition. Just as $100 in your bank and $100 in cash have the same price. Until the system has run out of reserves entirely.<br /><br />Victor<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-56667109041761641242013-04-14T12:28:53.882+01:002013-04-14T12:28:53.882+01:00GM,
Difficult to prove #Fed manipulates #gold. Bu...GM,<br /><br /><i>Difficult to prove #Fed manipulates #gold. But, when detectives face a crime w/ no witness, they look for a motive. Fed has plenty of that.</i><br /><br />And there goes Rickards' leftover credibility....<br /><br />In the U.S. it is the Treasury Department that is in charge of exchange rate and reserve politics. The Federal Reserve System does not own any gold and is not allowed to trade any gold. The only thing they have are "gold certificates" worth about $11bn and backed by the 8000 tons of gold that the Treasury owns. (Accounted for at the last official price of $42.22 per ounce).<br /><br />Who of the U.S. government organizations can trade gold? Not the Fed. It is the Treasury Department with their Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF).<br /><br />I can only speculate about his motive, but Rickards is seriously misrepresenting how U.S. monetary policy works. One might speculate that Rickards is trying to set up the Fed as the primary scapegoat for the case in which something goes wrong with the dollar. <br /><br />Let's say there will be a dollar crisis some 5 years down the line. Wouldn't it be natural to shut down the Fed (who is "clearly responsible" for it with all their irresponsible money printing) and hand all responsibility for monetary policy back to the Treasury Department? This would be the total irony because it has always been the Treasury Department that is in charge of exchange rate and reserve politics.<br /><br />But why is Rickards trying to blame the Fed? Because it makes him feel better? Because he was asked to serve as the mouth piece? I don't know.<br /><br />Victor<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-67288564738216689682013-04-14T07:36:14.718+01:002013-04-14T07:36:14.718+01:00@VtC,
As it is Draghi "insisting" then ...@VtC,<br /><br />As it is Draghi "insisting" then I think ECB approval is a given, the only limit is that gold sales are to cover ELA losses. No more Emergency Liquidity Assistance?<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-12/draghi-says-any-cyprus-gold-sale-must-cover-emergency-loan-loss.html<br /><br />Another driver of selling might have been the sharp reversal in the Yen gold price Friday, with sellers keen to take advantage of record high prices as the Yen succumbed (climbed) on US intervention.S Rochehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18070519576321568415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-31031915578788997052013-04-14T03:31:39.991+01:002013-04-14T03:31:39.991+01:00Hi Gm, replying to your email:
please see this co...Hi Gm, replying to your email:<br /><br />please see this comment I left on my own blog about "manipulation"<br /><br />http://kiddynamitesworld.com/bitcoin-as-a-metaphor-for-everything/#comment-862659122<br /><br />I never wrote the post about this, because I don't really want to dedicate any more of my time, energy and angst to helping the people who don't really want to hear what I'm telling them, but if/when i do, this will be the basic content of it.<br /><br />the problem is, I think it's safe to say that I haven't seen A SINGLE metals commentator, Rickards included (and especially Ted Butler, which is inexplicable because he used to do this for a living) who actually understands the combined mechanics of how markets work. Most of them (Butler, Maguire included) demonstrate a gross ignorance of ETFs, which have become a major player in the metals.<br /><br />as for Rickards: from his tweets that you relayed, he seems to think it's wicked easy to just pound out some sell orders, trigger other people to sell, and become a net buyer yourself into the mass supply you "triggered" (or, he didn't actually say the manipulators would become a net buyer, but if you read my blog comment, you realize that they'd have to be in order to avoid impact later).<br /><br />guess what - I've been the guy behind the big orders (not in gold and silver). Big orders are not an asset: they're a liability.<br /><br />this is a fantasy of people who have never traded size: that you can just "tip" the market into doing what you want it to do. fantasy.<br /><br />yes - EVERYONE presses the market at key technical levels (to the upside and the downside!), which is an entirely different topic, i think.<br /><br />and oh by the way: no one can ever force anyone else to do something in the market. so blame the weak longs who puke on technical moves, if you're looking for someone to blame...Kid Dynamitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17475987512856310577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-22869951276463835042013-04-14T03:23:46.434+01:002013-04-14T03:23:46.434+01:00@milamber - sure, I'd love to see the parts yo...@milamber - sure, I'd love to see the parts you curate for me... but again, if they're from the 70s (Even post-gold standard), i think they'll be outdated.Kid Dynamitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17475987512856310577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-13716637976792860732013-04-14T02:26:47.282+01:002013-04-14T02:26:47.282+01:00Re the GLD Puke,
Lance Lewis is of the view that ...Re the GLD Puke,<br /><br />Lance Lewis is of the view that we are seeing a "cluster of pukes" per 2008. Since the rally at $1600 failed he was expecting a capitulation and senses this is it given the negative indicators everywhere, sentiment and extremes etc, and is expecting a short squeeze.<br /><br />Having ignored his capitulation call I am on board with his squeeze call....two for two???S Rochehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18070519576321568415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-10008011401653765872013-04-14T02:20:47.793+01:002013-04-14T02:20:47.793+01:00@VtC,
Agreed re Cyprus gold template vs leasing e...@VtC,<br /><br />Agreed re Cyprus gold template vs leasing etc, long way to go. <br /><br />Musing that gold bull market started with Washington Agreement No. 1, launch of Euro etc and Cyprus gold template, IF allowed to happen, is a real game-changer. For that reason alone, may not happen, but, it seems close to happening.S Rochehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18070519576321568415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-20045402208359489202013-04-14T00:32:30.287+01:002013-04-14T00:32:30.287+01:00some more:
@fbonacci You wait until the market...some more:<br /><br />@fbonacci You wait until the market's going down anyway, push it harder w/ paper sell orders, then momentum does the rest. Easy. #Gold<br /> View conversation<br /> Jim Rickards @JamesGRickards 19h<br />@fbonacci Sticking to facts: #Fed has manipulated #gold in past, has motive to do so now & it's possible. That's not proof, but interesting.<br /> View conversation<br /> Jim Rickards @JamesGRickards 19h<br />@fbonacci I don't like to speculate if #Fed manipulates #gold without proof. But if you're asking whether it's possible; yeah, it's easy.<br /> View conversation<br /> Jim Rickards @JamesGRickards 19h<br />@fbonacci Well, that's the easy part. They manipulate interest rates openly every day via dealers. They could so same in #gold w/ dealers.<br /> View conversation Reply Retweet Favorite More<br /> Jim Rickards @JamesGRickards 19h<br />Difficult to prove #Fed manipulates #gold. But, when detectives face a crime w/ no witness, they look for a motive. Fed has plenty of that.<br />ExpandGM Jenkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-90213441007371996042013-04-14T00:31:22.457+01:002013-04-14T00:31:22.457+01:00Too busy to add much today, but I will say Rickard...Too busy to add much today, but I will say Rickards had some interesting tweets regarding manipulation, worth checking out. Point being, not everybody who suspects this stuff is a cretin. Dude just came back from a meeting withTreasury bigwigs.<br />Some tweets:<br /><br />My meetings @USTreasury went well. They were kind to invite me & I said what I came to say. This much clear: They take their lead from #Fed.<br /><br />Exactly. After yesterday I've concluded the #Fed now controls every so-called "market" in the world. Good luck to them.<br /><br />Interesting that #Gold crash came 4 days before hearings on #Texas depository. It's like #Bernanke sent #Perry a fish wrapped in a newspaper<br /><br />The dealers know exactly what the #Fed is doing in fixed income but they don't discuss. Same is true in #gold, but fewer dealers.<br /> <br />Difficult to prove #Fed manipulates #gold. But, when detectives face a crime w/ no witness, they look for a motive. Fed has plenty of that.<br /><br />You wait until the market's going down anyway, push it harder w/ paper sell orders, then momentum does the rest. Easy. <br />@JamesGRickards wouldn't the mjr gold dealers know it was the Fed though?<br />Expand<br /> Jim Rickards @JamesGRickards 18h<br />@fbonacci Maybe. But there's another intermediary, the Bank for International Settlements. They could front for the #Fed to dealers.<br /> Hide conversation Reply Retweet Favorite More<br /><br />Etc, - worth checking out for another perspective vs. the liquidation view that as i mentioned you gotta go with by occams razor. but occmas razor is just a guide.GM Jenkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-73419823568498004662013-04-14T00:24:07.366+01:002013-04-14T00:24:07.366+01:00Dan at The Fundamental View. He and I have spent t...Dan at The Fundamental View. He and I have spent the last year (more in his case) warning that gold and silver were very top heavy and due for a big washout.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-35884430450785025352013-04-14T00:23:52.101+01:002013-04-14T00:23:52.101+01:00SLL- He's Dan at The Fundamental View.SLL- He's Dan at The Fundamental View. GM Jenkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-78303334957113853772013-04-14T00:09:39.322+01:002013-04-14T00:09:39.322+01:00Will someone please enlighten me?
I don't kno...Will someone please enlighten me?<br /><br />I don't know who 'Dan at TFV' is, or where to find him.<br /><br />Google is no help!<br /><br />There are plenty of Dans around on the blogosphere, but I don't think I have run across one of them associated with 'TFV', whatever that is, unless I am just missing something obvious to others.Slow Loris Larryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03904505579567180085noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-45092977094566977602013-04-13T23:33:12.693+01:002013-04-13T23:33:12.693+01:00@KD,
1. The docs are post Nixon shock.
2. I agre...@KD,<br /><br />1. The docs are post Nixon shock. <br />2. I agree the gold standard is irrelevant & I don't think we are going back to it. <br />3. let me know if still interested & I'll post some snippets later tonight/ tomorrow.<br /><br />I am interested in your opinion of them if you are willing to oblige.<br /><br />Thanks,<br /><br />Milambermilamberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17412309240173757052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-83860189319696576062013-04-13T21:24:26.022+01:002013-04-13T21:24:26.022+01:00I'm not a veteran trader, only started buying ...I'm not a veteran trader, only started buying metals in 2010, but the stories never get any less ridiculous and that's a fact. The bull market in bullshit is still in a solid uptrend. I guess when that finally breaks, the metals will resume their move which I totally expect will happen.<br /><br />So thanks to KD and Dan at TFV for saying on top of it. The Sprott story is like the icing on the cake. Not sure if it will get better than that one. <br /><br />Funny how if you just let the market speak to you, you can let it earn for you too. I've been making comments along with GM since late last year about the the coming completion in several things like gold, $US, oil, copper around this time and here we are and it's gold leading the way. <br /><br />Wonder if chart master duggo looked at the technicals and took some shorts to hedge his physical longs? I did. He's highly intelligent, so I'm sure he banked nicely on Friday. Sold my DZZ and ZSL on Friday at close. Nice 10% days for both. No way am I holding over the weekend. <br /><br />Next up, crude, copper, $US. Let's get it done!Funky Tapehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09271221564702147756noreply@blogger.com