tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post5083642958341418275..comments2023-09-10T09:54:59.309+01:00Comments on Screwtape Files: Sunday pre-game, 1/13/13Louis Cypherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07670126160101669248noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-73621954807584811632013-01-18T21:42:25.803+00:002013-01-18T21:42:25.803+00:00GM - Go back to Oct of 2006 when the SPX broke out...GM - Go back to Oct of 2006 when the SPX broke out to the upside. The VIX was right around where it is today - 12.5. From there, we all know what happened; tripple top violence throughout 2007 and the VIX hit it's all-time low at 9.38.<br /><br />We're basically sitting in the same spot for both the SPX trying to break it's upper TL resistance and the VIX breaking down.<br /><br />And the weekly BB's on the DX are narrower than there were in.....you guess it...Sept of 2008. <br /><br />I don't know the next move, but I do know someone is going to get their a-hole ripped apart. Happy trading! lol...Funky Tapehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09271221564702147756noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-59792332807288010692013-01-17T10:00:45.102+00:002013-01-17T10:00:45.102+00:00The last time the $VIX was this low?
June 2007.
...The last time the $VIX was this low?<br /><br />June 2007.<br /><br />The August 2011 debt ceiling kabuki sent S&P 500 plummeting. So (if I understand correctly how the implied volatility is calulated, with $VIX at 13.49 as of today) why is the market saying a greater than 3.7% change (up or down) in the S&P 500 would be a >1-sigma event? Truly baffling. Is this the Exchange Stabilization Fund in action?GM Jenkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-73903581652790862702013-01-16T19:50:12.313+00:002013-01-16T19:50:12.313+00:00First the price, then the news:
"No gold wil...First the price, then the news:<br /><br />"No gold will be moved out of the Bank of England's vaults, however. It will still keep 13% of its total reserves in London, the German central bank said."<br /><br />http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21040214S Rochehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18070519576321568415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-71731540594164502942013-01-16T12:46:28.672+00:002013-01-16T12:46:28.672+00:00Where will the stress of the Buba gold repatriatio...Where will the stress of the Buba gold repatriation show first? GOFO?<br /><br />As of today: We don't need no steenkin' gold!<br /><br />08-Jan-13 0.27500 0.30833 0.33833 0.39500 0.44833 <br />09-Jan-13 0.30333 0.32833 0.35167 0.39833 0.45167 <br />10-Jan-13 0.32000 0.34333 0.36167 0.40000 0.46500 <br />11-Jan-13 0.31833 0.34333 0.36167 0.40667 0.46000 <br />14-Jan-13 0.31500 0.34167 0.36167 0.40833 0.45833 <br />15-Jan-13 0.30500 0.33000 0.35333 0.40500 0.45833 <br />16-Jan-13 0.26800 0.30200 0.32200 0.39200 0.44800<br /><br />http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=55&title=gold_forwards&show=2013<br />S Rochehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18070519576321568415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-45083538420144219412013-01-13T22:25:40.420+00:002013-01-13T22:25:40.420+00:00a move through $2000/$50 will make crazy headlines...<i>a move through $2000/$50 will make crazy headlines</i><br /><br />Good point GM Jenkins, could this be the headline that gets the retail investing public to start piling in?<br /><br />"GOLD SMASHES THROUGH $2000, GOING TO $5000 SAY ANALYSTS"<br /><br />Of course further downside is a possibility, but I think there is a good chance Gold (and Silver) bottomed during the wipeout to $1625 on the "Fed will quit QE in 2013" scare.<br /><br />Higher prices to come in the months ahead. The correction is becoming extremely stretched (time wise) as pointed out by James Flanagan in a recent presentation (see pages 20-26):<br /><br /><a href="http://www.gannglobal.com/webinar/2013/01/13-01-09%20Webinar.pdf" rel="nofollow">PDF Doco</a><br /><br />No doubt the freegolders will continue plugging their giants metal of choice, but I think over the next 12-18 months Silver is likely to shine again as it has another volatile burst higher:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bullionbaron.com/2013/01/silver-to-shine-again-prepare-for-burst.html" rel="nofollow">Silver To Shine Again: Prepare For A Burst Higher</a>Bullion Baronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10326839149017875755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-29983393949690688062013-01-13T18:56:22.822+00:002013-01-13T18:56:22.822+00:00That avatar is the best thing I have ever seen, S ...That avatar is the best thing I have ever seen, S Roche.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-59768129994098562402013-01-13T10:34:25.424+00:002013-01-13T10:34:25.424+00:00Sorry.... me too. I was being flippant.Sorry.... me too. I was being flippant.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-68023409090974402652013-01-13T02:36:03.912+00:002013-01-13T02:36:03.912+00:00Lol I just saw your avatar :DLol I just saw your avatar :DGM Jenkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-83239329509278182412013-01-13T02:35:35.594+00:002013-01-13T02:35:35.594+00:00You're probably right, sorry xTrader!
FYI I a...You're probably right, sorry xTrader!<br /><br />FYI I added some charts to the post re: 89-week MAGM Jenkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-15152789745690991542013-01-13T01:48:58.887+00:002013-01-13T01:48:58.887+00:00I don't have to choose: underneath the seeming...I don't have to choose: underneath the seemingly pleasant visage there lurks the rarely seen Prochesimian, how's that for Bona Fides.<br /><br />It is kind of you to suggest the guest post status for my comment, however, I don't think it would reflect great credit on Screwtape as the rating system I used is very subjective, even erratic.<br /><br />Back to work, GMJ: was it you suggesting a look at the 89 week moving average?<br /><br />Incidentally, I think a bit harsh there on xTrader who appears not to enjoy English as a first language and is apparently looking for basic guidance. Here you go xT: trade small while you learn; 10,000hrs later: trade large.S Rochehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18070519576321568415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-45596076615085941922013-01-12T21:50:40.842+00:002013-01-12T21:50:40.842+00:00I should add that if and when the next leg up come...I should add that if and when the next leg up comes (e.g. gold decisively through $1900) gold bulls should want it to motor up steadily, as it did 2009-2011, because parabolas on the log chart always end badly.<br /><br />It's also possible that there will be no leg up. Anything is possible. GM Jenkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-64677696463609862642013-01-12T21:46:39.546+00:002013-01-12T21:46:39.546+00:00xTrader you sound like a troll, so perhaps I shoul...xTrader you sound like a troll, so perhaps I should let duggo's response stand, but troll or no, you do raise the good point that someone who blogs on metals should be concrete. That way readers can use his prediction as a datapoint, either as part of the law of large numbers/wisdom of crowds or as a contrarian indicator.<br /><br />The way I see it: the next leg up in gold and silver is coming (my best guess, fall 2013, judging by the lengths of the previous big corrections) and when it does happen, it will be at least as strong as the 2009-2011 move, but more likely stronger, i.e. "parabolic" on the logarithmic chart for sustained periods of time (the 2009-2011 move was pretty linear on the log chart, as a simple glance at my chart above shows). <br /><br />Since I believe that explosion will occur on the <i>next</i> leg up (my rationale being, a move through $2000/$50 will make crazy headlines) gold& silver will have to make that move from a major correction-through-price or major correction through time. The present correction through time for both gold and silver hasn't yet lasted as long as the 2008 correction, which had a much steeper fall in price. And because of GM'S Fundamental Law of this gold bull, I don't see a huge correction in price, so meanwhile we will have to wait patiently, as price grinds down and rally's are sold. There will probably be at least one more bull trap in early 2013. Etc.<br /><br />If I sound more intermediate term bearish than e.g. early last year, it is because last year I wasn't quite sure the major post-2009 leg up had ended. Now it is clear to me it has ended. Whatever the merit behind believing GATA's case re: manipulation, it at least is a useful fiction to think: the manipulators (those who need the Federal Reserve Note to reign supreme) are in control. GM Jenkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-8318645617595721972013-01-12T21:36:31.580+00:002013-01-12T21:36:31.580+00:00"Unspecified sex"......well I do fondle ..."Unspecified sex"......well I do fondle my physical silver in appropriately at times. That's pretty specific and easy to understand. Did I say ...."easy"? Boy do I sleep well at night.Ol'FordTrkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01816157447390279473noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-87923200901554018162013-01-12T11:46:30.698+00:002013-01-12T11:46:30.698+00:00you buy some put
you mean next week gold price may...you buy some put<br />you mean next week gold price may drop ?<br /><br />another, can you explain silver chart with parabolic line<br />does it mean price may rising fast this year?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-67908986989880591272013-01-12T08:21:40.247+00:002013-01-12T08:21:40.247+00:00Hi xTrader
You've asked for an explanation of...Hi xTrader<br /><br />You've asked for an explanation of "it". Here you go:-<br />"Used to refer to that one previously mentioned. Used of a nonhuman entity; an animate being whose sex is unspecified, "<br /><br />OK?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-74381880720099809362013-01-12T06:02:56.442+00:002013-01-12T06:02:56.442+00:00hi
im newbie. i find this blog by chance.
your art...hi<br />im newbie. i find this blog by chance.<br />your article look interesting but i don't understand in many point can you explain it in a simple words<br />thanks,Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com