tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post8645638517106234981..comments2023-09-10T09:54:59.309+01:00Comments on Screwtape Files: Deep Thoughts, with GM JenkinsLouis Cypherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07670126160101669248noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-61637026244259718782012-11-17T13:52:40.842+00:002012-11-17T13:52:40.842+00:00[ update for links ] FOFOA also gave a good answer...[ update for links ] FOFOA also gave a good answer to @duggo's question about pricing <a href="http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2012/11/moneyness-2-money-is-credit.html?commentPage=2&showComment=1352976759705#c4052301868175555136" rel="nofollow">link</a>, which helps highlight how the bullion dealer operates in respect to pricing. :)<br /><br />Sometimes I wish I had the time to index all this great material, especially Bron's stuff which still reads fresh. FWIW i think all this gold information would be great as a graphic novel or series of infographics (Comics is an art form with huge bandwidth). One day!Warren Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-70689951079756181472012-11-16T04:15:29.075+00:002012-11-16T04:15:29.075+00:00JdA,
it's not mine. See here:
http://en.wiki...<br />JdA,<br /><br />it's not mine. See here:<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor<br /><br />Victor<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-33399795933343961072012-11-16T00:31:33.338+00:002012-11-16T00:31:33.338+00:00@VtC - I like your quote at the end of your commen...@VtC - I like your quote at the end of your comment so much, that I think it deserves a few days as Screwtape's by-line. Ta.<br /><br /><i>JdA</i>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-75245699182569923782012-11-16T00:24:51.659+00:002012-11-16T00:24:51.659+00:00duggo,
Re where the spot price comes from, see
...duggo,<br /><br />Re where the spot price comes from, see <br /><br />http://goldchat.blogspot.com.au/2008/06/investment-timeframes-part-ii.html<br /><br />and also<br /><br />http://goldchat.blogspot.com.au/2008/07/gold-value-chain-part-iv-trading-prices.htmlBron Sucheckihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00530576934994289879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-42702346757635964152012-11-15T17:20:37.192+00:002012-11-15T17:20:37.192+00:00Victor wrote
"the U.S. desperately needs a h...Victor wrote<br /><br /><i>"the U.S. desperately needs a higher gold price, but without collapsing the London market" </i><br /><br />I understand your contention that the US needs a higher oil-price, but why a higher gold price? <br /><br />Doesn't a rising gold price signal (loud and shrill) the death of the USD? <br /><br />Unless the USG actually realises the jig is up and want to bring on a rest asap (seems unlikely). <br /><br />And how would a higher PoG collapse the London market? Lord Sidcuphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08413661458819093344noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-23534128614028368242012-11-15T17:11:56.311+00:002012-11-15T17:11:56.311+00:00duggo,
Now if I was the person manipulating the p...duggo,<br /><br /><i>Now if I was the person manipulating the price of Gold and Silver (if there is such a thing) would be happy to see all of this attention directed at the wrong target. </i><br /><br />You are so right. I was already thinking that GATA might be the front of some Treasure Department public relations project, trying to distract from the true issue at hand. <br /><br />The true issue is that <br />* the dollar will fall out of use as an international reserve, and the rest of the world has long chosen gold to be the successor,<br />* the U.S. desperately needs a higher gold price, but without collapsing the London market,<br />* the rest of the world wants less inflation and has been p*ssed off about all the inflation originating from the U.S. for decades<br /><br />The cover-up story is that <br />* _all_ central banks want gold low and they want high inflation<br />* therefore you should own silver because the central banks don't have any in order to suppress its price<br /><br />But then, <i>Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.</i><br /><br />Victor<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-73148919892546407562012-11-15T12:08:02.940+00:002012-11-15T12:08:02.940+00:00@duggo, just my two cents on that stream - it'...@duggo, just my two cents on that stream - it's my understanding the COMEX is dominated by futures contracts pricing - greatly influenced by them and that when the blogs are talking cartel smackdowns then this is the arena.<br /><br />A few times in the past I hurried onto the bullion dealer's website after a large 'smackdown' to pick up a steal, only to find that the local bullion price had not moved by the same magnitude - and that's the point you start to realize the same metal has many different expressions of price. I like your out-of-the-box thinking; in theory the market sorts out these imbalances, but if you <i>make the market</i> then a lot of fun can be had. [EOM]Warren Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-59386626973667686832012-11-15T11:32:15.568+00:002012-11-15T11:32:15.568+00:00Dear GM
Ah, the plot thickens. So all of this &q...Dear GM<br />Ah, the plot thickens. So all of this "Conspiracy at the Comex" could very well be a Red-Herring. With the Comex being the tail of the dog or maybe even it's dangly bits the likelihood that prices are being set there is slim. So all of the pundits looking at the Comex and saying "there's been a smack-down" are actually looking at prices that most probably have been set somewhere else.<br />So all of the people demanding that the CFTC should "do something" are probably looking in the wrong cupboard and asking the wrong people.<br />Now if I was the person manipulating the price of Gold and Silver (if there is such a thing) would be happy to see all of this attention directed at the wrong target.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-62822850764976969752012-11-15T09:37:34.524+00:002012-11-15T09:37:34.524+00:00@duggo, no problem. No question is ever stupid.
Y...@duggo, no problem. No question is ever stupid.<br /><br />Your question is a good one - the best I can answer right @ the minute is that there are always multiple prices - depending on what you want to buy. For example, London markets will do a fix, a mint will give you a different quote on bars factoring in delivery, ebay will price a coin differently to your local bullion dealer who may have specials on, the stock market will price ETF allocated (and unallocated) .. and so on!<br /><br />Generally though, I think what you're after is the spot price - a general expression of many of these factors, and if someone is quoting that figure, it actually depends on their sources, etc. My knowledge ends there, but hopefully some of the other guys reading will have better intel.<br /><br />Personally I like 'http://goldprice.org', but Nick Laird at Sharelynx probably has some answers too.Warren Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-75241121016433619022012-11-15T09:20:32.850+00:002012-11-15T09:20:32.850+00:00@ Warren James
Thanks for the info which is very ...@ Warren James<br /><br />Thanks for the info which is very interesting and does make all of the talk of "smack-downs" by dastardly moustache-twiddling villains on the Comex seem like a fairy-tale.<br /><br />I'm still interested to know the exact source of the second by second PM metals pricing that everyone seems to use. Whether you are buying a Gold "brick" a coin or just using graphs the "prices" that are being used and standardised come from whom and where? I don't just mean a company supplying the figures but the actual source.<br />Is this a stupid question? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-32174768785053815052012-11-15T08:52:07.828+00:002012-11-15T08:52:07.828+00:00@duggo, Slow Loris Larry did a good investigation ...@duggo, Slow Loris Larry did a good investigation into that exact question (no supernatural forces involved as far as I know):<br /><br /><a href="http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2012/03/relative-sizes-of-lbm-otc-market-and.html" rel="nofollow">The Relative Sizes of the LBMA OTC Market and the COMEX/GLOBEX Futures</a>Warren Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-48008809943527043522012-11-15T08:05:02.372+00:002012-11-15T08:05:02.372+00:00Dear GM Jenkins
Can you tell me how the size of t...Dear GM Jenkins<br /><br />Can you tell me how the size of the Comex compares to the LBMA?<br /><br />As an expert on graphs can you explain where the second by second prices are coming from that you see on every precious metals site?<br /><br />I've asked my fellow Gold bugs on FOFOA but never got a reply. They either thought it was too simplistic and stupid to be answered or they were too busy counting the Angels on a pin-head. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-1616141225385612002012-11-14T19:49:16.652+00:002012-11-14T19:49:16.652+00:00As far as the election goes...
http://www.youtube...As far as the election goes...<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qk12ALX9fz8&feature=related<br /><br />Marv.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15065213971193971154noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-13587488846489029022012-11-14T02:51:32.167+00:002012-11-14T02:51:32.167+00:00If it is true that past behaviour predicts future ...If it is true that past behaviour predicts future behaviour, as I believe, then perhaps TA is useful. We can all point to occasions when the unpredicted occurs, but without some basis for decision making we are stabbing in the dark. I also value intuition, which I think is another way of saying that I pay attention to what my unconscious mind makes of the information and feelings it absorbs. So, thanks for the charts and the trends you infer GM. I shall continue being deluded into believing they help.criswahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16254453087114053983noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-19612040087113720602012-11-14T02:36:22.469+00:002012-11-14T02:36:22.469+00:00To continue my point about DC as the rock under wh...To continue my point about DC as the rock under which lame sociopaths crawl about, narcissists who detract from civilization to the extent they think they raise it -- I read that Paula Broadwell would go to law firms in DC and challenge people to push-up contests and arm wrestling contests (all for some "good cause," always some "good cause"). And this was considered normal. You know this country is headed off a cliff when a bug-eyed whore and human growth hormone abuser who would've been a syphilitic camp follower in a previous life isn't immediately escorted out by security. GM Jenkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-17652792274738839552012-11-14T02:13:07.343+00:002012-11-14T02:13:07.343+00:00Hey SLL - glad you like the charts, indeed whateve...Hey SLL - glad you like the charts, indeed whatever they may signify ;) Credit goes to my insomnia - staring at charts till you see a pattern or go to sleep is like ambien without side effects. I like to think it's more lucrative than counting sheep, although judging from the response here I might be deluded.<br /><br />BTw I wasn't referring to you at all with the "anti-silver" point, as I didn't think your post was anti-silver at all (exactly as you've explained). I probably had in mind the general impression I got from some of the FOFOA comments, e.g. Victor's prediction of the ratio going to 1000:1 or whatever, and all the stuff that got BrotherJohnF worked up.GM Jenkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-66518715111096515952012-11-14T02:07:10.283+00:002012-11-14T02:07:10.283+00:00A lot of good points here, including anti-TA argum...A lot of good points here, including anti-TA arguments and importance of voting in more local matters. I also liked the quip about how voting "encourages the bastards" in Washington -- that was one of my points I had in mind but I forgot to mention. Anyone who has spent time in DC knows how lame the people there are, how unattractive in every sense of the word, bordering on sociopathic, and how important they think they are. Voting is their Academy Awards, it's the gravediggers banquet. <br /><br />On the other hand, there are some genuinely good candidates, like the unassuming Ron Paul (nobody's perfect, but he gets it, he understands what the term "public servant" means and consequently the only sustainable way to run a government that actually serves the common interest and not its own interests). GM Jenkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-20117374176763972732012-11-13T22:49:17.623+00:002012-11-13T22:49:17.623+00:00Since I may be the principal referent for GM's...Since I may be the principal referent for GM's remark about 'A lot of anti-silver talk on this blog lately,...', I would like to deny that scurrilous characterisation, if it was indeed aimed at me.<br /><br />If what I have posted about the 4:1 ratio (by above-ground weight) of existing silver versus gold stocks was intended to be 'anti-silver', I wouldn't have bothered. <br /><br />I was just trying to clear the air (presuming that the 'silverogosphere' actually has an atmosphere) of the pervasive fantasy that, compared to gold, there is only a miniscule amount of 'available' silver, and that therefore the growing shortage of the metal will inevitably drive its price 'to the moon if not the stars'.<br /><br />I think that there may be far more genuine and salient reasons to expect the price of silver to appreciate significantly in the near to medium term, perhaps even more so than gold. <br /><br />But believing in fairy stories doesn't help one make rational decisions.<br /><br />By the way, I love GM's graphs, whatever they may signify.<br /><br />SLLSlow Loris Larryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03904505579567180085noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-63531919559180174082012-11-13T18:43:27.916+00:002012-11-13T18:43:27.916+00:00When Yossarian was asked "What if everyone ac...When Yossarian was asked "What if everyone acted that way?" he replied then he'd be a damn fool to act any other way.<br /><br />I think the wheels have fallen off. S Rochehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18070519576321568415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-56836445174007163932012-11-13T16:19:54.365+00:002012-11-13T16:19:54.365+00:00Another nice post warren.
While I thought PJ Orou...Another nice post warren.<br /><br />While I thought PJ Orourke's book was very shallow, I loved the Title,<br /><br />"Don't Vote It Just Encourages the Bastards"<br /><br />http://www.amazon.com/Dont-Vote-Just-Encourages-Bastards/dp/0802145434<br /><br />I do agree with Edwardo on the referendum stuff. I vote and try and get my local neighbors to vote, but mostly in the local elections where we have a little more direct influence over our local politicos.<br /><br />Milambermilamberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17412309240173757052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-77578092384004417182012-11-13T15:20:46.698+00:002012-11-13T15:20:46.698+00:00Voting, like some other ballyhooed human endeavors...Voting, like some other ballyhooed human endeavors, is a triumph of hope over experience. And while I can only speak for myself, I have a notion that a considerable number of folks stood in line at the polls not to vote for tweedledee over tweedledum (or vice versa)but to vote on referendum questions. <br /><br />In the meantime, if I may make a bold conjecture, a number of the cohort that voted for The Shrub in '99, and subsequently, and very ungraciously, relentlessly taunted the other side with "Sore Loserman" signs, now want to pick up their marbles and leave the rest of the lower forty eight what with all the secessionist talk. The truth, I suspect, is that it's a certain demographic of (mostly, again, I suspect, beef eating southerners, a smattering of mid-westerners and south-westerners aged approximately 38 to 55) of angry white males that want to form their own perfect union of gun toting, HMS loving, god fearing, self styled patriots.Edwardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03613197383283896190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-88674345740700339672012-11-13T13:57:08.071+00:002012-11-13T13:57:08.071+00:00This is how I see it; TA is used to confirm whatev...This is how I see it; TA is used to confirm whatever bias the reader brings to the graph (consciously, or unconsciously). <br /><br />I assume that GM Jenkins is overall bullish on gold, and the chart in December 2011 helped him rationalise to himself (and his starving wife and kids) that he should stay long, which is exactly what he was inclined to do anyway. <br /><br />Prechter and Gordon seem somewhat intelligent so I suggest they have done okay in spite of using the Elliot Wave (not because of it). <br /><br />I am generally a pessimistic person; in the 90's my investment record was fairly disastrous, however, since the mid-00s I have astounded friends and family with my acumen and prescience. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Lord Sidcuphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08413661458819093344noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-6771167835576025112012-11-13T11:38:47.517+00:002012-11-13T11:38:47.517+00:00p.s. My "little voice" has been tellin...p.s. My "little voice" has been telling me to read Screwtape Files and FOFOA lately. It that's any help to anyone out there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-31086301531996593062012-11-13T11:33:54.666+00:002012-11-13T11:33:54.666+00:00Dear GM.
I know how you feel. There was time in ...Dear GM.<br />I know how you feel. There was time in my distant past when I couldn't take a piss until I'd done a chart. I finally kicked the habit when I discovered I could alter the parameters to make it say what I wanted to hear. I started my "graph life" with success and I thought I had the "secret". Then one day it deserted me like a fair-weather friend and I realised Lady Luck had found someone new. Perhaps you?<br />The best system I have ever found was to study as much as possible and then that little voice "the sub-conciouse" would tell me what to do. If I ever went against my little voice (which was more intelligent than me) then invariably I got it wrong.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-43668529750823855422012-11-13T11:03:54.200+00:002012-11-13T11:03:54.200+00:00I dunno duggo. You could be right, insofar as char...I dunno duggo. You could be right, insofar as charting is for the most part painfully unscientific, e.g. "overfitting" data points/ mining for patterns with disregard for "multiple testing" (i.e. if you look long enough for patterns, you're guaranteed to find something just by chance, especially if you allow for a lot off slack in those patterns and introduce enough criteria). But then, shit, I say if something's working, keep at it until it stops working. Corollary: profit now, seek explanations to why you're profiting later. To give one example, the chart above with the high/low 300 day moving average definitely helped me stay long during the December 2011 sell-off, since I was aware amidst the panic that it wasn't broken. Once it was broken in April (when I did take a decent loss), the chart (among others) influenced my strategy to sell rallies and buy dips over the summer until it was cleared to the upside again, which has marked another profitable leg up. Can you really say my decision to hold on in December, or to sell in April, or not to get overly bullish and buy during the pulses up last spring/summer (which only hit the red line, didn't clear it), and finally to buy and hold after September (a little late, I confess) would've been as easy without using this one chart (much less the many others, such as RSI, which encouraged me to take profits during the latest local max?) I say there may be more in heaven and on earth than is dreamt of in your philosophy, duggo.GM Jenkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.com