tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-56734418151808545032024-03-05T06:16:20.071+00:00Screwtape FilesCan you connect the dots?Louis Cypherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07670126160101669248noreply@blogger.comBlogger642125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-27865839400011335802023-01-26T23:24:00.010+00:002023-03-03T13:42:44.312+00:00Artificial Intelligence: Pandoras Box has been Opened<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipjS-WoF6lBeMi9hm7FJ3GbdR6cqELTOM8kA0L6472uZ8A1X4tCTmqz_BFP8jh65UfdsqYL9R0PIgqRRgSeYKV7KN_kV-8J7UTw9NATIEoI7ua9x2MBzne7B_dchAuX2zz_I1FtnkwPyXKrGh086Can2Vx6CLEeqrSJ64tkoB0eNvWlu4x6eUFg1NYBQ/s142/warren_2022.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="142" data-original-width="120" height="142" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipjS-WoF6lBeMi9hm7FJ3GbdR6cqELTOM8kA0L6472uZ8A1X4tCTmqz_BFP8jh65UfdsqYL9R0PIgqRRgSeYKV7KN_kV-8J7UTw9NATIEoI7ua9x2MBzne7B_dchAuX2zz_I1FtnkwPyXKrGh086Can2Vx6CLEeqrSJ64tkoB0eNvWlu4x6eUFg1NYBQ/s1600/warren_2022.jpg" width="120"></a></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">In 2022, I dedicated time to understanding the advancements
of Artificial Intelligence and trying to get a handle on the societal impact. In the last 12 months, Large Language Models
(LLM’s) have grown in power thanks to the huge sums being invested into the
space. Barriers to entry have fallen – interacting with the most advanced models is now <a href="https://chat.openai.com/chat" target="_blank">a mouse click away</a>.<br>
<br>Seeing the potential for the technology, I discovered as much as I could. But my findings conflict my feelings. At a personal
level, taking a few months to compile my thoughts feels pointless when AI could
compose similar in seconds, and when I project things forward, the sum total of all my future efforts feels completely eclipsed. The power of today’s fledgling AI is already unlocking new
possibilities but if we are honest then we must admit to ourselves we are no longer in control of what is unfolding - the situation is much
like Pandora's jar unleashing a torrent of unknowns into the world.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p>Here’s my five best observations:</p></div><div><div><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b>The new AI models are very intelligent.</b> Yes, at a technical level it’s just ‘advanced statistical autocomplete’ and the harshest critics dismiss any apparently intelligent properties as sheer mimicry. But these things are absolutely performing cognitive tasks – they are incredibly good at summarizing text, they perform their tasks at speed. Even if the intelligence is an illusion, it’s a sophisticated one and it has obsoleted traditional benchmarks like the Turing Test. The scary aspect is volume – OPEN AI <a href="https://singularityhub.com/2021/04/04/openais-gpt-3-algorithm-is-now-producing-billions-of-words-a-day/" target="_blank">estimated</a> their system was generating 4½ billion words per day in April 2021 (a lifetime ago).<br><br></li><li><b>These machines are not conscious in the traditional sense.</b> Intelligence is not the same as consciousness but unfortunately for anyone investigating this aspect, science lacks a tactile definition for what consciousness is and most critics of LLM sentience end up applying their own interpretations. My own interactions with the <span style="font-family: courier;">text-davinci-002</span> model leave me with an eerie sense the machine is just teasing me – the sense it knows I’m there but doesn’t particularly care. The only thing we know for sure is that it doesn’t experience the world in the same manner we do and most likely the debate about the illusion will still be raging until we can define the mechanics of consciousness in a more precise fashion.<br><br></li><li><b>These machines are amazingly creative.</b> My own experiments creating new scripts for Red Dwarf using <span style="font-family: courier;">text-davinci-002</span> model made me laugh out loud at the humour produced by the engine – the creativity of the jokes was both unexpected and fresh. You may also know at this point they can generate unique artwork from mere worded suggestions. I’ve played with both DALLE-2 and Midjourney, the results are intriguing and open the doorway for new forms of art. Early forms of text-to-video have already been experimented with, and it’s been suggested video games of the future will be closer to ‘dream machines’ where the game environment is created dynamically in response to the user.<br><br></li><li><b>These things should be called Biased Intelligence.</b> It is amazing to read the engineers are working hard at ‘removing bias’ when in fact their very actions achieve the opposite. The original selection (and non-selection) of the training data is the first layer and then comes tuning, weights and training which all work to mould the core structure in a manner approved by the creator. Then, the current efforts toward ‘safeguarding’ and ‘guardrails’ which are yet another layer of bias. Creating a politically-correct super-intelligent entity always struck me as an oxymoron but in January 2023 at least, grafting a layer of woke onto the current models appears to be the intent of Silicon Valley. Now when using their systems, we must ask ourselves whose version of reality is promoted. In my own experiments I’ve noticed the models have a built-in warning relating to financial advice and most conversations about gold and silver seem to vanish into nowhere (most likely not in the training data).<br><br></li><li><b>These machines often hallucinate.</b> Finally, one of the more interesting aspects of the GPT models is the propensity to occasionality fabricate items and present them as truth. The obvious mistakes are easy enough to spot, the subtle aspects make these things dangerous. In my earliest research I was asking the GPT engine questions about its abilities and for an hour got rather excited before I realised it was just telling me what I wanted to hear. Given my technical background, I was patently embarrassed but the experience was useful because it allowed a first-hand experience of someone unfamiliar with their inner workings of large language models. The danger becomes amplified again if the human is not aware they are interacting with an AI entity.</li></ol></div></div><span></span><a href="https://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2023/01/pandoras-box.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>Warren Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-82502864020293514352022-10-13T20:57:00.003+01:002022-10-13T21:08:40.523+01:007th September 2032<p> A few days ago I happened to click into Screwtape to have a quick read of a couple of my old blogs, it's interesting to see what I thought about things back in the old days before I became addicted to pills (the red pill, the black pills, and eventually the golden pill). I was so blind back then.</p><p>I noticed that Warren has put up a post earlier this year, so I thought I would share some thoughts too. I hope you're well Warren (we had a video call back in 2020, Warren and I).</p><p>Let's start with the topic you all love, gold and the monetary system. You'll remember that Another and FOA and their shill FOFOA all loved to paint the central banks as the good guys, and the governments as the bad guys. A cute narrative. But a lie. </p><p>The truth is that there's a hidden worldwide power structure (HWWPS), and these entities control virtually everything, including all governments, all central banks, the BIS, the IMF, the UN, NATO, the WHO, and every multinational corporation and of course the media (including all of the well-known alt-media personalities such as Martin Armstrong, Vox Day, David Icke and Julian Assange, and FOFOA too). If you see someone with a blue tick on Twitter, you can be certain that they sold out to the hidden controllers. If someone makes the mainstream news, opposing any form of government policy, you can be certain that they are controlled opposition.Many shills push the narrative that America is evil and Russia and China are reasonable and fair. Many seemingly intelligent people seem to buy that narrative hook, line and sinker. Events that happen around the world are all orchestrated according to a grand plan, and the days of freedom in the West have been undermined by the evil ones, with Chinese and Russian agents playing key roles in selling out their own nations. </p><p>I could go way back into ancient history and discuss some of these events, but we will start with the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and Colonel Gaddafi. The mainstream media and governments gave us a narrative (for Iraq at least), and we know for certain that that narrative was a lie, there were no WMDs. In Libya, they didn't really even bother to construct a narrative, they just took Gaddafi out.</p><p>So, the alt media guys give you another narrative, that both Saddam and Gaddafi were looking to start trading their oil in euros, or in some other African gold-backed new currency, and so the evil American empire took them out to protect USD hegemony. But that's another lie, because the US government doesn't give a shit about the USD or its people obviously. The US government has simply been the latest worldwide arm of the HWWPS, succeeding the British. </p><p>The reason why Saddam and Gaddafi were taken out is because they refused to go along with the longer-term plan of the HWWPS, preferring to remain as independent nations. The longer-term plan is now pretty clear to nearly anyone that has become red-pilled in the past ten years. Here is the plan:</p><p><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 120px; text-align: left;"><span style="color: red;">TO KILL OR ENSLAVE THE WHOLE OF MANKIND</span></p><p style="margin-left: 120px; text-align: left;"> </p><p style="text-align: left;">The HWWPS have been working on this project for thousands of years. In modern times, we have witnessed countless wars and genocides and democides in the past couple of hundred years, resulting in hundreds of millions of deaths. All the wars were fake, not one nation was truly at war with the other, they were all following orders from above, designed primarily to kill men. </p><p style="text-align: left;">They faked a flu pandemic in 1918, and they have faked another one recently. On both occasions, the toxic injections were what caused millions of deaths and injuries, because the flu is not transmissible, and viruses don't even exist, they were a fabrication of the HWWPS in the early 1900s, when they captured the medical colleges and switched the syllabuses from natural medicine to pharma poisons. (Did you know that pharma in Greek means sorcerey? It does).</p><p style="text-align: left;">Now we see them faking a war in Ukraine, literally using paid actors as Ukraine's leaders. The goal of the war was to enable the Western governments to induce economic and financial collapse on their own nations. You may have noticed that Russia is thriving, and it still supplies normal levels of gas to Ukraine, but not to Europe. You may have noticed that Biden is emptying the SPR oil reserves and preventing oil fields and fracking from being developed. You may have noticed that OPEC is ensuring supplies are kept low enough to keep prices painfully high. You may have noticed that the UK government is deliberately scoring own-goal after own goal, destabilising markets with wild abandon. You may have noticed that a crunch approaches, much like 2008, but the Fed and Yellen pretend not to notice. I could go on here, it's a very long list, so I will just include the visit of Pelosi to Taiwan, now of all times, as another faked up conflict looms in Taiwan. Anything and everything is being done to crash industry and supply chains and small and medium-sized businesses, and to induce financial hardship, as well as living hardship during the winter ahead, on ordinary people.</p><p style="text-align: left;">When disaster arrives (probably before the end of the year), the central banks will print gazillions more, the public will demand it, and we will move much closer to the wave of hyperinflations that is part of the plan of the HWWPS, a plan they instigated back in Genoa in 1922. Itz coming folks, soon, within a few years.</p><p style="text-align: left;">I have described what is happening to friends as the resurgence of the Cold War. It's running hot now. The former Soviet Union faked its own demise (Jeff Nyquist is a good read on that subject), but all of the former Soviet states still follow the orders of the Russians (who themselves follow the orders from the HWWPS). Russia was never communist you know, do some research on 'state capitalism', that's what Russia had, the merger of Capital and the State, exactly what we now see in China, in Hungary, and more and more Western nations, and all around the world. The hidden power-brokers don't care about making profits, because they own nearly everything they want already. So they don't care at all now if multiple corporations and banks go bust, they have served their purpose as part of the plan. The banks especially will be the fall guys when the really big bust arrives, probably late in 2024. But that's just another diversion, as the HWWPS make their final moves for mankind's enslavement, via their ready-and-waiting programmable Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). They will provide dole money for the unemployed, the retired, students, but with strings.<br /></p><p style="text-align: left;">You want to go for a car ride to the beach with your family in 2030? Not going to happen, you will not be allotted funds for leisure trips (for the good of the planet, they will say). You want to have friends over for steak dinners? No chance, you will not be allowed more than a few grams of meat per day (for the good of the planet, all those cow farts). </p><p style="text-align: left;">But before that arrives, they plan worldwide famine. You may have read about the increase in pressure on farmers all over the world. They aim to shut down as many farms as possible, returning the land to wilderness. They have engineered fertiliser shortages too, and are faking bird flu currently, to kill as much poultry as possible. Eventually, when shortages arrives, they will simply nationalise (steal) all the farmland, and then the famine will arrive within a year. Go read about the Holodomor, they have experience in this area, and desire billions of deaths. Did you know that Bill Gates has been buying up huge tracts of farmland in America (but growing nothing)? Did you know that the environmental movement sprang up out of the eugenics movement? Did you know that Boris Johnson's dad (Stanley) has written many many books on the subject of population reduction? Did you know they opposed nuclear power because they knew it would provide cheap energy to billions, allowing for huge population growth? Hence, Merkel (former junior commie party member) managed to shut that power source down in Germany, on a flimsy pretext. Just like Liz Truss shut down Britain's gas storage facilities a few years back. It's really not difficult to spot the actions and motives, when you know the plan. (Oh, Russia did blow up its own pipeline by the way, a nice move to further demonise the evil American Empire, with Vlad as always presented to adoring Western right-wingers as a man of reason. Nah, he's a snake, they all are).<br /></p><p style="text-align: left;">If you are reading this, there's a very good chance that the vast majority of what I have shared above was not news to you, you probably were aware that geopolitics is as fake as national politics. Left v right is theatre, as much as China v America. You may not have realised that viruses don't exist, and you may not have realised that famine and enslavement approaches, although the World Economic Forum have stated publicly that by 2030 you will own nothing and be happy.</p><p style="text-align: left;">How will they achieve that end? I expect them to announce a kind of debt jubilee, at the same time as they tell us that the market system no longer serves mankind, and that more enlightened management of the planet and mankind is required. So they will forgive all debts, but at the same time they will simply take ownership of all property, and everyone becomes a tenant to the state (but really to the HWWPS). Yes, it'll be the biggest heist in history, and it cannot be stopped. They may allow you to keep your bits of gold, and whatever bank deposits have survived the currency crises, but they will determine how and when you spend them. No more jet-setting holidays for the masses, no more high streets, no more pubs and restaurants, just smart cities, modern gulags, where you will only enjoy the planet virtually, via the digital virtual world they are building. They will feed you crap, make it hard to stay fit and well, induce despair and depression, and hope that you die off quickly, because, in honesty, they don't like mankind, and you are just a useless eater, in their view, trespassing on their planet.</p><p style="text-align: left;">If you're still reading, you may be thinking this all sounds incredibly grim. Yes, it is truly very grim indeed, this is a horrible time to be alive. We all know about the novel 1984, and the level of control foretold in the novel, of speech, of lives, even of thought. It's all coming to pass now, you have to be blind not to see it. As the evil insider Another said (but people like to forget): 'If you don't like this system, you're going to hate the next one'. He spoke truth there, but FOFOA did a great job shilling his lies, earning a living from it to boot. (You may find it interesting to read the postscript to 1984 by the way, included as a glossary of terms, because it shows that the slavery system didn't last very long).<br /></p><p style="text-align: left;">I mentioned at the start of the post that I had consumed the red pills, and the black pills. Truth, followed by the realisation that the evil ones will prevail and billions will perish, and then most of mankind will submit to slavery. I also mentioned the Golden Pills, many of which I have eaten since 2016, and which have led me on a quite incredible journey into even deeper truths than I have revealed above, as well as a multitude of tests and battles. The past two years especially have been incredibly testing for me, but I endure it all, for the sake of mankind. Destiny, something I have come to terms with now.<br /></p><p style="text-align: left;">I will be back shortly with a follow up to this post, when I will reveal what is going to happen on 7th September 2032 that will end this miserable period in mankind's history. I will also share some revelations that will make you think, but I'll give you one of those here and now, some inside knowledge I have been gifted.</p><p style="text-align: left;">When they introduce their evil programmable central bank digital currencies, they will use some kind of rfId technology, maybe a chip implanted in the right hand, or maybe the chip will be small enough to be part of a tattoo they will require the currency users to take. They will sell the new CBDCs are being 'as good as gold' (remember that phrase). The central banks have stolen the nations' gold reserves already, none of it is in national treasuries any more. A good heist. The tattoo they will require will be of a fine gold bar itself. As the wearer looks down at the tattoo they will see a tiny gold bar, 24 carat of course, with its finesse marked as normal with .999. But as they invert their hand to present it to the card readers at supermarket checkouts, that .999 will be upside down. Would you describe a worldwide system of digital slavery as...beastly?</p><p style="text-align: left;">More to come in due course friends, and rest assured, for those who make the right decisions in the next ten years, the future is very bright indeed. These evil hidden powers think that they have everything sown up for good, but they are wrong. They will not enjoy the 7th September 2032 at all.</p><p style="text-align: left;">Take care, and may God bless you all with love and Truth.<br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-45284877995199666942022-05-08T23:12:00.001+01:002022-05-08T23:17:46.807+01:00Russia and Gold<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipjS-WoF6lBeMi9hm7FJ3GbdR6cqELTOM8kA0L6472uZ8A1X4tCTmqz_BFP8jh65UfdsqYL9R0PIgqRRgSeYKV7KN_kV-8J7UTw9NATIEoI7ua9x2MBzne7B_dchAuX2zz_I1FtnkwPyXKrGh086Can2Vx6CLEeqrSJ64tkoB0eNvWlu4x6eUFg1NYBQ/s142/warren_2022.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="142" data-original-width="120" height="142" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipjS-WoF6lBeMi9hm7FJ3GbdR6cqELTOM8kA0L6472uZ8A1X4tCTmqz_BFP8jh65UfdsqYL9R0PIgqRRgSeYKV7KN_kV-8J7UTw9NATIEoI7ua9x2MBzne7B_dchAuX2zz_I1FtnkwPyXKrGh086Can2Vx6CLEeqrSJ64tkoB0eNvWlu4x6eUFg1NYBQ/s1600/warren_2022.jpg" width="120" /></a></div></div><div>I went out for coffee and when I got back, Microsoft had riddled windows with spyware, a deadly virus was released on the world, Australian police used drones to enforce lockdowns, Antarctica had heatwaves, plastic became a plague, artificial intelligence is ruling our lives and Russia invaded Ukraine result-of-which we're on the verge of WW3. Hoorah!<br /></div><div><br /></div><div>It is worth attempting to scrape some value from the extreme situation we find ourselves in. Ukraine 2022 provide a unique opportunity to stress-test one of the bigger precious metal theories from the recent decade - the notion that <b>a sudden massive demand for real physical gold would collapse the western banking system</b>.*</div><span></span><div><br /></div><div>Being immune from direct experimentation has allows this concept to thrive and mutate over the years. Here are some of the big variants:<div><div><br /></div><div>- The 'paper gold' derivatives system would explode</div><div>- The United States Dollar would 'collapse'<br />- The major bullion banks would be crashed<br /></div><div>- The Freegold era would be ushered in<br />- The COMEX would bust from individuals standing for delivery</div><div><br /></div><div>This myth is officially busted<b>.</b> <span style="color: #274e13;">Here is the test in all it's simplicity: all Putin needs to do is to demand gas and oil payments in <b>physical gold</b> and </span><i style="color: #274e13;">hey-presto</i><span style="color: #274e13;"> the economic system of his adversary would be on its knees without even firing a shot.</span><span style="color: #274e13;"> </span>Russia has the means, the motive and the opportunity - surely this apparently very-obvious vulnerability would have been exploited already if it were real? Or maybe Putin didn't get the memo on 'buy silver, crash JP Morgan'?</div><div><br /></div><div>I raised an eyebrow when reading they had 'pegged' the Rouble to Gold starting <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russian-cenbank-restart-buying-gold-banks-will-pay-fixed-price-march-28-2022-03-25/" target="_blank">28th March 2022</a> giving the initial impression they were selling energy for gold using the Rouble as a proxy. As I understand it, the arrangement wasn't a true gold standard because exchanging Roubles for central bank gold at a fixed price wasn't a feature - and in any case by <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/russias-central-bank-says-it-will-stop-buying-gold-fixed-price-2022-04-07/" target="_blank">7th April 2022</a> Russia's central bank ended the fixed price arrangement so whatever they were experimenting with ended nearly as abruptly as it began. The price of gold showed nothing noteworthy during that time period (my <span style="color: #ff00fe;">highlight</span>).</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNM1aD6FzRw5joqyKb9OJhP1_knshULW5AMZ5n1xq0ltpNplb6rKVgyDkVZxvRlDFpeOIkBZZ7zNjzJARNWXUktpCzZ89IZL_72E-VLsmEdkAFmSvprwD0s548RWNfFUMqs4f63pzS1ex3lrJb2lXEO1depG_9TvF5-8sAu_zSzOkgDXeF6wZ6yj2c8g/s375/highlighted_gold_peg_2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="341" data-original-width="375" height="291" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNM1aD6FzRw5joqyKb9OJhP1_knshULW5AMZ5n1xq0ltpNplb6rKVgyDkVZxvRlDFpeOIkBZZ7zNjzJARNWXUktpCzZ89IZL_72E-VLsmEdkAFmSvprwD0s548RWNfFUMqs4f63pzS1ex3lrJb2lXEO1depG_9TvF5-8sAu_zSzOkgDXeF6wZ6yj2c8g/s320/highlighted_gold_peg_2.png" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div></div><div><div>In March, six Russian gold refineries had their accreditation temporarily <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-russia-gold-idAFL2N2VA1K4" target="_blank">suspended</a> from The London Bullion Association (LBMA) which means they can't sell newly refined bars into the London market however '<i>Gold and silver bars produced by the refineries while they were accredited remain valid to trade, according to LBMA rules</i>', which is why Russian bars are still present in the <a href="http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/assets/dynamic/GLD/file/barlist/Barlist.pdf" target="_blank">GLD bar listing</a>. At first I thought this might choke the physical gold supply but article explains it away: "<i>Bankers and traders have said the removal of Russian refiners would have little impact on the market and Russian metal would still find buyers in places such as China and the Middle East</i>". Quite, since Russia's supply is quoted at ~330 tonnes/year. No disruption so far - could it be the physical gold market is robust?</div><div><br /></div></div><div>Personally I still favour the idea of Freegold - having Gold as the ultimate neutral global reserve asset ** floating against all other currencies would <b>limit the ability of governments to wage war</b> and <b>reduce their capacity for totalitarian measures against the general public</b>. But until that happens we owe it to ourselves to abandon childish mythology in our understanding of the world.</div><div><br /></div><div><hr /></div><div><br /><div><span style="font-size: x-small;">* Market 'manipulation' is a separate topic - in 2022 we know regular collusion and manipulation of futures markets by the big players are very real and are well documented thanks to the myriad fines issued (<a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=fines+market+collusion+commodity+futures" target="_blank">link</a>).<br /><br /></span><span style="font-size: x-small;">** At some point in history the US Dollar will no longer be the global reserve currency. On this topic I recently came across an exposition by Ray Dalio (43 minute animated summary of his book - <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8" target="_blank">link</a>).</span></div></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>Warren Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-84196207339855895282016-12-19T13:24:00.001+00:002016-12-19T13:24:50.953+00:00Charlie and the Golden Ticket<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Although things have been quiet, gold related discussions still boil away in the background with one gold vault in particular always moving back into the center of discussion: the Bank of England vault with its 400,000+ gold bars (holding approximately five times the current inventory of GLD).<br />
<br />
The vault was recently visited by Prince Charles (<a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4010724/Prince-Charles-shown-Bank-England-s-vaults-400-000-gold-bars-worth-100BILLION-stored.html" target="_blank">link, with photos</a>), Bron Suchecki asked me if the new photos showed any additional clues about the vault interior. Unfortunately the answer is <span style="background-color: yellow;"><b>no</b></span>. The visit appears to have taken place in the main display vault which is already well known. I have updated our 2013 diagram with Charlie's estimated positions marked in <span style="color: blue;">blue</span>.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqChi5rCC5XApaIn3a_uvALRIsRBnxdl2ydScGQ_gqZWuilzygsVyINdRqwAV-uh2Xpvxf_wdgamIwWAxhnzKBm7U-CcAY2r1QCaT8WLNWwrdAeaRSQmV5C1erJ9BMWwQItOubmwzcUwFn/s1600/floor_layout_bank_of_england_display_vault_by_warren_james.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqChi5rCC5XApaIn3a_uvALRIsRBnxdl2ydScGQ_gqZWuilzygsVyINdRqwAV-uh2Xpvxf_wdgamIwWAxhnzKBm7U-CcAY2r1QCaT8WLNWwrdAeaRSQmV5C1erJ9BMWwQItOubmwzcUwFn/s400/floor_layout_bank_of_england_display_vault_by_warren_james.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSflbNfij_IAKDpWQS-mqmO665Fi8hJVUZYAHAwP9FPyotwgg_G3HFq3CoM0TVMh2ttyrIGf55UtllwjH3qaJ7UJ9o1HoC9v_aT_iJTs8-viBEnQUSoMo9VtCl5V5UeRBFnESqAVaRYcZW/s1600/3B25303F00000578-0-image-a-6_1481135836202.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSflbNfij_IAKDpWQS-mqmO665Fi8hJVUZYAHAwP9FPyotwgg_G3HFq3CoM0TVMh2ttyrIGf55UtllwjH3qaJ7UJ9o1HoC9v_aT_iJTs8-viBEnQUSoMo9VtCl5V5UeRBFnESqAVaRYcZW/s400/3B25303F00000578-0-image-a-6_1481135836202.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">If you can, show who's boss by getting photographed next to lots of gold!</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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The average rate of photographic disclosure via royal visits puts us way behind in any effort to map the interior, which is disappointing since there always seems the chance of catching out the big boys with definitive proof of collusion, corruption and the like. Unfortunately this is a pipe dream - the bank is in complete control over information which get released ... <b>you see what they want you to see and nothing more</b>. Even if we were somehow able to obtain a digital copy of their entire bar list, the best we could do with that info is match those numbers to other known signatures in GLD and other central bank holdings (where partial information exists) but it still wouldn't be enough to reveal any substantial shenanigans. In this respect they hold all the aces in this game.<br />
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This should not discourage us, and the fabulous inner workings of the chocolate factory shouldn't be kept under wraps. If there are any folk out there who have additional photography of the BoE vaults, feel free to send it through to bullionbars (at) hotmail.com and I'll update the layout graphic. Additionally if there are any BoE insiders who want to leak a bar list (even to tease us), please send your material using a pseudonym to the same address after verifying your life insurance is current.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>Warren Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-87272609178912254932015-12-06T22:20:00.000+00:002015-12-06T22:20:09.424+00:00Nearly there?Hello everyone.<br />
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2015 draws to a close, so I thought I'd try to emulate GM Jenkins with a few charts for you. I have found a whizzo new (free) charting site recently, which has enabled me to mess around with some very long term charts.<br />
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I'll kick off with a recreation of one of GM's that I know has interested a few of our readers, the ratio of the US 10 year treasury yield and silver, and how this signposts big turning points in the price of gold:<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3iYUBWIyx7HIemQZA90tz5wwVYlo2J6Hli_eiBAGZrAsSrz8gjG5CUgHrMinGQL95zmYjqoql3Vqho_42M1edcKZ6dSVglw5GWCaYNy6l-2j-m9GBe0ALnw6ONBx8-4DQ0yX2znBy4cQ/s1600/TNX+SLV+Gold.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3iYUBWIyx7HIemQZA90tz5wwVYlo2J6Hli_eiBAGZrAsSrz8gjG5CUgHrMinGQL95zmYjqoql3Vqho_42M1edcKZ6dSVglw5GWCaYNy6l-2j-m9GBe0ALnw6ONBx8-4DQ0yX2znBy4cQ/s400/TNX+SLV+Gold.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Not long now?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
As we can see, the upper trend-line was touched and pierced back in the early summer, and more recently the ratio has moved even further outside of the trend-line. This is not unprecedented, as we saw a similar episode at the bottom of the channel from mid-2011 through to the end of 2013, when gold had its last bubble phase. Whilst the channel doesn't provide a precise timing for turns up or down in the gold price, it does appear to help identify the process of topping and bottoming for the gold price. My feeling is that the gold price has one final plunge ahead very shortly, before the trend reverses for a number of years.<br />
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This next two charts show where the gold price might find its support in the next 3-6 months:<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOSxOTypwfIzZkb92pYz3Vp1Z9ce0W-Ow8dcwB2StYQsAmfjtq8K3NrUOMlaZssqJ1vmJTivztTbRjVGvdc2Jj_I8qvFOhFmldsIKZLrrJDTaNtFbh6q0a7xuCoQ3fImOvqpsoHkgVlkE/s1600/gold+fork+98.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOSxOTypwfIzZkb92pYz3Vp1Z9ce0W-Ow8dcwB2StYQsAmfjtq8K3NrUOMlaZssqJ1vmJTivztTbRjVGvdc2Jj_I8qvFOhFmldsIKZLrrJDTaNtFbh6q0a7xuCoQ3fImOvqpsoHkgVlkE/s400/gold+fork+98.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Andrews Pitchfork starting in 1999</td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Here is the same pitchfork extended to a recent date:<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQJe_LQqsC1YcosTr89PLGean168ldT-_qRvRGItGZfEBui3qBCeY1nR1VSc069qrj9bngQfskpL1ZIzDc27FM1YMAtKlP5q_90spDt7Z-mio4x9N_vki7XFW46P17eGNHWupGXNmAwao/s1600/gold+forks+long+term.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQJe_LQqsC1YcosTr89PLGean168ldT-_qRvRGItGZfEBui3qBCeY1nR1VSc069qrj9bngQfskpL1ZIzDc27FM1YMAtKlP5q_90spDt7Z-mio4x9N_vki7XFW46P17eGNHWupGXNmAwao/s400/gold+forks+long+term.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">These lines will intersect the gold price sooner or later, and there is also strong lateral support in the $950 to $1,000 range</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Here's another interesting pitchfork chart from way back in the 70s, which proved to be relevant again more recently:<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8Ux3Rdj8MKYTDngu0Vg1Wf9w-eWsTTLxbEMXI9dyL-kbPdv8Jgvn4T8McOestk9ik5tRFen_ZUher1Lj3xOmHEon_hoSYAZix2Uzi_X-3nt4ifTXX3yfTS_KErb7fO2XIYUfyh1YqzkY/s1600/76-now+gold+pitchfork.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8Ux3Rdj8MKYTDngu0Vg1Wf9w-eWsTTLxbEMXI9dyL-kbPdv8Jgvn4T8McOestk9ik5tRFen_ZUher1Lj3xOmHEon_hoSYAZix2Uzi_X-3nt4ifTXX3yfTS_KErb7fO2XIYUfyh1YqzkY/s400/76-now+gold+pitchfork.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Down to the bottom then back to the top again?</td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Everything seems to line up with a move down for gold to around $950 within the next 6 months or so, and I'd guess it will be a sharp move down rather than a drift lower, a classic capitulative finale to a bear market, with weak-handed holders selling in volume. It would then be followed by a relatively swift rebound and the start of a good few years of a strong bull market.<br />
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This would coincide with a global recession and the broad markets entering a deep bear market. Here's a quick look at the crash of 1987:<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhd6kDmZkKE6HorqjbAAKNboxJbNkOdoUsVYTctCBlzeihN-nwT3Vq8_ED3uiWiGdSemaIUevnPF4GSiFNsdlAT8BCb7cvYVAav7nKAIisDrToFjs-XWHzzaOzWfVx69N7jj-RrTPOObcY/s1600/dow+1987+crash+trendlines.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhd6kDmZkKE6HorqjbAAKNboxJbNkOdoUsVYTctCBlzeihN-nwT3Vq8_ED3uiWiGdSemaIUevnPF4GSiFNsdlAT8BCb7cvYVAav7nKAIisDrToFjs-XWHzzaOzWfVx69N7jj-RrTPOObcY/s400/dow+1987+crash+trendlines.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Upper and lower trend-lines from the crash of 1987</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Here's the Dow Jones again with those same trend-lines extended to today's prices:<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinnQ1spL9UPiIxIUjQJt4iJP9up3mudJk9GyxkunQbSh8aZT1jyAr5LiLbLn2JO8kY1p3FuuX8iGVfJudGe1lNMyjGHEKIptxfkKHwEbzDwm4dteEJb7VuI3lZhUoMRRIbmaVNIB2u_L0/s1600/dow+1987+crash+trendlines2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinnQ1spL9UPiIxIUjQJt4iJP9up3mudJk9GyxkunQbSh8aZT1jyAr5LiLbLn2JO8kY1p3FuuX8iGVfJudGe1lNMyjGHEKIptxfkKHwEbzDwm4dteEJb7VuI3lZhUoMRRIbmaVNIB2u_L0/s400/dow+1987+crash+trendlines2.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Bubble, what bubble?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Interesting how those trend-lines seem to come into play decades later isn't it?<br />
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We appear to be heading to an imminent major turning point for many asset classes based on these charts.<br />
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Good luck.<br />
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<img alt="Image result for prosimians" class="rg_i" data-src="https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTUZbUron3c2d8iYqmztwuPeQo-I76AVe21JZJxoSJo5-sX3nn6" data-sz="f" name="n7lDh-o_ZxFQEM:" src="https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTUZbUron3c2d8iYqmztwuPeQo-I76AVe21JZJxoSJo5-sX3nn6" style="height: 194px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: -5px; width: 259px;" /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com65tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-22212025607814385582015-10-28T19:27:00.000+00:002015-10-28T19:27:42.655+00:00Fibonacci to markets: sorry, your time is up.This is it folks, the end of the rally, today is the peak.<br />
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Here's why, just a couple of charts, the first one key, the second just to show how weak other markets are.<br />
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Complacency abounds, the bulls appear to believe clear blue skies lie ahead, when all I see are storms.<br />
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Good luck.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSG_-9fFwlRaFK3AZOjPkz8mPm4Pe5dHgJbWBcNrxlpeSLjJ-GZYdKIWkTxrIvM18ik2h5TBM7oJMur0K3obM12knsUDdvQ4wmzZYjIj7rw4AkCIGk5Z41EQxVHjbT2DCLHIhJDpSSOF4/s1600/ES_78.2%2525_fibo.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSG_-9fFwlRaFK3AZOjPkz8mPm4Pe5dHgJbWBcNrxlpeSLjJ-GZYdKIWkTxrIvM18ik2h5TBM7oJMur0K3obM12knsUDdvQ4wmzZYjIj7rw4AkCIGk5Z41EQxVHjbT2DCLHIhJDpSSOF4/s320/ES_78.2%2525_fibo.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1u9-EDa70bhuEH8V581XCDbZYX0ew2kkB3Z1Q8dW70hUeNX-wXcyGJKjq6SzyP1IEj5KeqAYtin2uZhHB_H8DRSo_rPbBDgw7sJx8LqkSEpT5PI0e-kGdarT81Q0xknCwqQk21yPI1JQ/s1600/ftse_50%2525_fibo.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1u9-EDa70bhuEH8V581XCDbZYX0ew2kkB3Z1Q8dW70hUeNX-wXcyGJKjq6SzyP1IEj5KeqAYtin2uZhHB_H8DRSo_rPbBDgw7sJx8LqkSEpT5PI0e-kGdarT81Q0xknCwqQk21yPI1JQ/s320/ftse_50%2525_fibo.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-67239194017474662352015-10-02T14:46:00.000+01:002015-10-02T14:46:19.517+01:00Checkpoint 1 : Armstrongs 2015.75<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpmUPM_aoOxxsWT84XY-wmq0QA0NcVLuU3FvDjRKcnXmS2wtG_9VUPuvxWD0Hthxibirp-SSORcjOfNm_4yyRfwRl0785CnILcIQAvoMl-mvtD_MvSfe8Po5ddI15kuKw95DkNGR0Vb_Cx/s1600/dark_aye_aye.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpmUPM_aoOxxsWT84XY-wmq0QA0NcVLuU3FvDjRKcnXmS2wtG_9VUPuvxWD0Hthxibirp-SSORcjOfNm_4yyRfwRl0785CnILcIQAvoMl-mvtD_MvSfe8Po5ddI15kuKw95DkNGR0Vb_Cx/s1600/dark_aye_aye.jpg" /></a></div>
Recently we discussed magnitude of expected financial events and in our 20-year poll, one of the options for date prediction for a <a href="http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2015/05/worldwide-turmoil-financial-upheaval.html" target="_blank">WTFUC event</a> was that of Martin Armstrong's 2015.75. Now that date (September) has come and gone I wanted to take a quick snapshot of the results and make a few comments.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWQzndvdzHjHK8SiPrVuG0WZvXfjoHU9t27mxAQH1KYlTlIcOhp7rjqqreu6YN2fyXRh8DQkZBbJ5phZEvsXQN41VJfr9getUgqsx9dM0xy0QSxfhxAjc1-4kITVh8cE7v5Qkb1ZozX3HA/s1600/20yearpoll_20151001.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWQzndvdzHjHK8SiPrVuG0WZvXfjoHU9t27mxAQH1KYlTlIcOhp7rjqqreu6YN2fyXRh8DQkZBbJ5phZEvsXQN41VJfr9getUgqsx9dM0xy0QSxfhxAjc1-4kITVh8cE7v5Qkb1ZozX3HA/s1600/20yearpoll_20151001.gif" /></a></div>
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Any of the 34 respondents who voted for this option were ... wrong. And I say this not to be narky - in fact I'm very glad last months events did not pan out the way I described in my WTFUC definition. The entire point of the original article (and the 20-year poll) was to help bring discussion to the mental models we carry around with us i.e. an examination of our expectations and time-frames for all things financial. Depending on the settings on your computer the poll will allow you to change your vote.<br />
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Regarding the date expressed in Armstrong's economic confidence model (ECM), I'm not entirely sure what to make of it (or his renewed focus on <a href="http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37619" target="_blank">Real Estate</a> for that matter), I always thought the ECM was referring to confidence in government/public sector. I get the impression the turning point will be the focus of quite a good many follow-up articles in the years to come with the benefit of hindsight. In fairness it is not realistic to expect certain events on a very specific slice of time, but this gets us back to the discussion on time frames and relativity. My overall point is that predictions are useless without tests and context for those models. I cringe every time I read a call for COMEX DEFAULT, DERIVATIVES COLLAPSE or Bullion Bank IMPLOSION. The big problem is none of these events have transpired on the purported time frame and that should be a red flag for any continued predictions from the same folk. From a book recently read - I love this paragraph because the author could easily be talking about most precious metals blogs.<br />
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"<i>... This desire for complete seamless explanation infests most examples of crank science. When somebody mails me their explanation of the architecture of the Universe derived from the geometry of the Great Pyramid, or the cipher of the Kabbalah, <span style="background-color: #fff2cc;">it will usually display a number of features: it will be entirely a work of explanation; there will be no predictions, no tests of its correctness; and nothing lies beyond its encompass.</span> It is not the beginning of any research programme. Beyond refutation, it is always the last word.</i>"</blockquote>
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The world is an incredibly complex place and it is beneath us to describe it in simple terms. Together, let's keep searching for the right model of gold and international finance. But let's <b>judge </b>and <b>discard</b> models which don't give specific predictions and which fail to explain the significance of the events in the context of their readership.<br />
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Next checkpoint is at the end of 2019, let's see what happens over the next 3 years. --Warren<div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>Warren Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.com29tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-90939854554197355812015-09-26T11:54:00.000+01:002015-09-26T11:54:15.138+01:00The Sun and the MoonHello everyone.<br />
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We were long overdue a new post, so here's something a little different. <br />
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I'm sure everyone who visits this blog is interested in expanding their knowledge.<br />
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I wanted to quickly share something that I have discovered recently that appears to represent a major piece of the jigsaw in terms of understanding human behaviour and major climate cycles over the ages.<br />
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It would appear that all activity on our planet is affected by solar activity, lunar positioning, and also the movements of other planets in our solar system. Gravity and magnetic activity are both involved. Major periods of change for humanity have coincided with peaks and troughs in solar activity, as well as other impacts on a more regular basis. It is a fascinating subject. Everyone is affected by the sun, including your friendly central bankers and politicians. As we head into a major solar minimum in c. 2020, expect to see speculative behaviour wither away, with significant impact on business activity and the markets. It's already evident of course, as the latest bubbles begin to burst (Any biotech dip-buyers around yet)?<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA-Uw27pb6zT1S1I4oIJinGnqAgQcihCqIbx2KvW4BXzVE7m6rqjBHwn2huvrWI-aeYOleuTBt5d41ZpYei1Z9KGFEISPUXgvdl0hcqq3DHMILx3uTYIWpvFfMN2Ohcr0ft5SFmzxi4is/s1600/solar+flare.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA-Uw27pb6zT1S1I4oIJinGnqAgQcihCqIbx2KvW4BXzVE7m6rqjBHwn2huvrWI-aeYOleuTBt5d41ZpYei1Z9KGFEISPUXgvdl0hcqq3DHMILx3uTYIWpvFfMN2Ohcr0ft5SFmzxi4is/s400/solar+flare.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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I don't have the time to explain the details here, so I am simply going to provide a few links to sites that I now follow regularly, and hope you find them interesting.<br />
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<a href="http://solarcycles.net/" target="_blank">John Hampson writes regularly on the impact of solar cycles on markets and demographics.</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.suspicious0bservers.org/" target="_blank">Ben Davidson covers daily solar and climate activity, and their impact here on earth.</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.lunarplanner.com/SolarCycles.html" target="_blank">This site has a variery of information on solar and lunar matters, as well as other areas I have not looked at.</a><br />
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That's all folks, enjoy your weekend.<br />
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<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-71019228698955196452015-08-11T00:37:00.000+01:002015-09-05T21:18:42.500+01:00The Nexus <div class="post-entry">
It’s time to delve into the murky waters of the nexus
between money, central banks, governments, banks, and humankind. Most of
my thoughts are focused on the present and the future, rather than the
past, so that means there will be a certain amount of informed
speculation. It’s much more interesting to look forward and consider
where we are going (using current/recent events as a guide) rather than
be constantly looking backwards for a guide to the future. Everything is
subject to change at all times, so it’s best not to have a fixed view,
but to treat matters on the balance of probabilities having considered
all available evidence. So, some readers may need to cast aside any
existing biases and prejudices they may have around this rather meaty
subject, as the future is likely to make those biases irrelevant.<br>
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Where to begin? I’ll start by stating that I have seen plenty of
evidence that money is and always has been debt, and that it simply
evolved that way. The best anthropological evidence of this evolution is
contained in the early sections of <a href="https://libcom.org/files/__Debt__The_First_5_000_Years.pdf">David Graeber’s book ‘Debt: the First 5,000 Years’</a>.<br>
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</div><a href="https://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2015/08/the-nexus-part-1.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-10583502984523296122015-08-10T03:12:00.000+01:002015-08-13T07:48:26.547+01:00The Big Picture<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRyKi8lSlJnRBaw6nAzsHI90HREI90A0OCKhGg6xUDMQon0eJaQMWmEoid_Tvp3TL2filHO6_ffD4xxte1XI8-SymSE342Lb-oLxu5ZRg0NqVPbgh09nmCTB_uENNyu5DPtT_mMWZgOG8Z/s1600/Big+Picture+View_Space-Travel-HD-Wallpapers.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRyKi8lSlJnRBaw6nAzsHI90HREI90A0OCKhGg6xUDMQon0eJaQMWmEoid_Tvp3TL2filHO6_ffD4xxte1XI8-SymSE342Lb-oLxu5ZRg0NqVPbgh09nmCTB_uENNyu5DPtT_mMWZgOG8Z/s400/Big+Picture+View_Space-Travel-HD-Wallpapers.jpg" width="400"></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">One of the biggest challenges I have confronted in trying to discuss money
is the difficulty many people have in
thinking of money as a type of debt. On a personal level we use money in ways
that can make this concept very counter-intuitive. We use currency to settle
debts and make purchases. We get paid in money. There’s no obvious creditor and
debtor relationship with money as there is with the contract for a housing loan
or a car loan.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When a person has paid for something with money I don’t think it’s easy for
them to reconceptualise that transaction as actually being an assignment of a
debt. Yet, on a system level we can clearly show that money is a type of debt.
We can identify the sources of the stock of money and point to their balance
sheets where the liabilities (debts) reside that correspond
to the total stock of money in the economy. (Incidentally we can, as Jacques Rueff does in
“Balance Of Payments”, also apply these insights to the international monetary,
financial and trade system.)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">My interim solution to this problem is to apply two different approaches
to defining money. I think we need to use multiple <b><i>functional definitions</i></b> of
money to describe people’s personal relationship with it as a way to try to establish
some common ground. But we cannot discuss money from a <b><i>monetary system</i></b>
perspective without agreeing that it is a type of debt regardless of where that
system lies on the spectrum between ‘realist’ and ‘nominalist’. We need a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systems_thinking">“systems thinking”</a> approach to get the big picture perspective.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</div><a href="https://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2015/08/the-big-picture.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>costatahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17932860172715556937noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-63858729222273053802015-07-26T05:45:00.001+01:002015-08-24T23:26:37.104+01:00The Nominalists And The Realists<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3eMprD7foK6A9c9k7kS0htk_m32Dmg4mBwxZ3_1PAotm07HbEU5Sxafoa4-BJdwE2A1_-KfPpXvG3wfHT_SFLSe8b7NtiwX3sO3CE6k7nam-YHNoW0sFl6csgjV8tRLViyz6WLw_OWj_P/s1600/17149292-Abstract-word-cloud-for-Conceptual-framework-with-related-tags-and-terms-Stock-Photo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3eMprD7foK6A9c9k7kS0htk_m32Dmg4mBwxZ3_1PAotm07HbEU5Sxafoa4-BJdwE2A1_-KfPpXvG3wfHT_SFLSe8b7NtiwX3sO3CE6k7nam-YHNoW0sFl6csgjV8tRLViyz6WLw_OWj_P/s200/17149292-Abstract-word-cloud-for-Conceptual-framework-with-related-tags-and-terms-Stock-Photo.jpg" width="200"></a><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Have you ever had a “light bulb” moment? A moment when a huge amount of
information just falls into place like the pieces of a puzzle spontaneously rearranging
themselves into a clearly recognizable image? Here’s a passage that did that
for me a couple of days ago: <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The two
extreme types of monetary systems are: the 'realist'<b> </b>under which each unit of money has, as a
counter-part in the balance-sheet of the bank that has issued it, an asset that
can be sold on the market for an equal value; and the ‘nominalist’ under which
money is nothing but a token, void of substance. <b>All the systems that have been, are, or will be in force range
somewhere between these two models.</b></span></i><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> (my
emphasis)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<a href="https://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2015/07/the-nominalists-and-realists.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>costatahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17932860172715556937noreply@blogger.com41tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-87278417658675809122015-07-09T23:27:00.000+01:002015-08-05T00:41:28.464+01:00$1,081 gold bottom?We've recently been updated by GM Jenkins on the 10 year USTs priced in silver chart, notably the ratio hitting its upper channel line at around the 1.50 level. GM is expecting a final lower low for gold shortly, before the trend changes back to a bull market.
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I decided to see if the gold price was Fibonacci-friendly, and the chart below plots the key retracement levels from the bottom back in 1999 through to its peak in late 2011.
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Here's the chart (I manually added the 23.6% level at $1,522):
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh0Pe3U-IfA9OrAED7xoW7zQ0B72zXQVBU1I3OR_LgoSJdsEjVdecfrUxXsz7aBV64JHtAAD8pnhHk72CfHNHHPUZ4A893y60W4zIe8UIDoOL-H1w7afG9V7pjVleGridOh2CtVZfFZPs/s1600/gold_fibs.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh0Pe3U-IfA9OrAED7xoW7zQ0B72zXQVBU1I3OR_LgoSJdsEjVdecfrUxXsz7aBV64JHtAAD8pnhHk72CfHNHHPUZ4A893y60W4zIe8UIDoOL-H1w7afG9V7pjVleGridOh2CtVZfFZPs/s400/gold_fibs.png"></a></div>
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Who knows what will happen, but the fib levels seem significant, so I'll be saving my pennies to buy the bottom at around $1,081, and I reckon it's coming within the next 5 weeks, in the midst of a liquidity crisis as stock markets take a dive.
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I'm not expecting the 61.8% fib level to be hit.
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<a href="https://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2015/07/1081-gold-bottom.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com38tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-50138867969420297502015-07-08T12:37:00.000+01:002015-08-05T00:40:47.131+01:00Don't believe the hypeHello everyone.
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Just a very quick post on the collapse in the Chinese stock market, and how it's being (mis)reported by mainstream media in China and in the West.
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPdgob6d9rkE98impr0IsNlzXhK4DMF914FDHlakq5DWN9MjhRnRvBJfnjsmspb3UPXW5M_UGO_23C7xctjEzTPoJinfBZF3oyi7UnANxugWjVBqZK-3YWP3LaiTqOeA6ZpbfRXcAHYTY/s1600/media+lies.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPdgob6d9rkE98impr0IsNlzXhK4DMF914FDHlakq5DWN9MjhRnRvBJfnjsmspb3UPXW5M_UGO_23C7xctjEzTPoJinfBZF3oyi7UnANxugWjVBqZK-3YWP3LaiTqOeA6ZpbfRXcAHYTY/s320/media+lies.jpg"></a></div>
I'll assume all readers know that the Chinese stock market bubble has burst, and that the bursting is ongoing, with many stocks limit down today.
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Reports in the media have all been saying the same things, which can be summarised as follows:
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1. The Chinese government are doing all they can to stop the collapse.
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2.The People's Bank of China is supporting the market, buying shares, helping brokers, and will do anything to keep it all propped up.
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3. Interest rates are being slashed again to try to keep the bubble afloat.
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4. Eventually, the Chinese will socialise the stock market and maybe the housing market.
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<a href="https://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2015/07/dont-believe-hype.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-59213234868096037472015-06-06T02:59:00.005+01:002015-06-17T08:19:33.683+01:00The (beginning of the) End<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOZQ0OPmhbp6z0562mKewYiOgj1VLgW2i3IrEfy-oPW2ve5wS_zFTSdTEIY0ngjjxYOOxBRBK54k-IHNrAKLS1uC4rXGohZCmuVjhrSwqmbdju6as5Vmpq5IOAx1kKOGWVLT0OryQ6M42Q/s1600/1tarsier-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><br>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOZQ0OPmhbp6z0562mKewYiOgj1VLgW2i3IrEfy-oPW2ve5wS_zFTSdTEIY0ngjjxYOOxBRBK54k-IHNrAKLS1uC4rXGohZCmuVjhrSwqmbdju6as5Vmpq5IOAx1kKOGWVLT0OryQ6M42Q/s1600/1tarsier-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOZQ0OPmhbp6z0562mKewYiOgj1VLgW2i3IrEfy-oPW2ve5wS_zFTSdTEIY0ngjjxYOOxBRBK54k-IHNrAKLS1uC4rXGohZCmuVjhrSwqmbdju6as5Vmpq5IOAx1kKOGWVLT0OryQ6M42Q/s1600/1tarsier-1.png"></a><br>
Greetings friends!<br>
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We’re not yet at the end of the great bear market in gold (2011-2015), but I can confidently say it’s the beginning of the end.<br>
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<span style="background-color: yellow;">[update 6/9]</span> To clarify, based on a question in the comments, re: my statement to "expect a new low soon." Note that although the chart pattern suggests the next <i>up</i> leg in gold should begin when the $TNX/silver ratio hits the green line, in the past these points have been accompanied by a new low in gold first. So my best guess is that a new low is coming soon, while interest rates may also fall to keep the ratio near where it is.<br>
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<span style="background-color: yellow;">[*update 6/15]</span> Ratio is indeed still at 1.50 at the close of this week, with gold approaching a new low. One thing I should've made more clear is that the pertinent lows on this chart are for weekly closing prices, so a new low would be < $1158, which was the closing price the first week of March of this year. (It was also the lowest closing price in gold in 5 years, going all the way back to April 2010!) ...Working on some cool charts but no time yet to post.<br>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5LCmyJDTbP7EY-WcEAXIUkxlz-aGmbCo131VXzXkpcvTeTnpGP7drJjHjbP7M7cFe4IYJt6rd7RI5_-1VBbBhugUY2X8tQFt0A3hVOxJyAGyIg8UaU3f3MWbvkWwSp_qL9ucQBgTio20F/s1600/sc.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5LCmyJDTbP7EY-WcEAXIUkxlz-aGmbCo131VXzXkpcvTeTnpGP7drJjHjbP7M7cFe4IYJt6rd7RI5_-1VBbBhugUY2X8tQFt0A3hVOxJyAGyIg8UaU3f3MWbvkWwSp_qL9ucQBgTio20F/s400/sc.png" width="400"></a></div>
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Let it be widely known that I first called this <a href="http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2013/07/figured-it-out.html" target="_blank">2 years ago</a>. It actually surprised even me how relevant that post remains. </div>
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However, I regret to say, a video I had posted at the top, the content of which I have only the vaguest recollection, but the titillation derived whereof I distinctly recall, has vanished…</div>
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Well, this one should be timeless. </div>
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/JSUIQgEVDM4" width="420"></iframe> </div>
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Note: Below the fold a chart that illustrates the trend in nominal interest rates since 1980, i refer to it in the comments</div>
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<a href="https://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2015/06/the-beginning-of-end.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>GM Jenkinshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-60389327674468174512015-05-29T05:14:00.003+01:002015-05-31T03:52:00.838+01:00Quick Analysis on Sticky Gold (chart)<div style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;">
<img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHvZ2d-z_3tCgzzv4muA98agyO6SwaioNPkQqUccVy6Pxu47CkYcNMYVedBuRcOTN-_GmdfxWw3mqSuwozBwXA5NMm067QOr7t6X3vnsgtGUAoo8Yb3VZYBc1HtohmQEfyy9MQ2LQiyBHI/" style="float: right; height: 120px; margin: 6px; width: 120px;">
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A very quick chart for Gold price (in USD/oz) to demonstrate the gold
doldrums. For those who debate Gold's proper value : the market says it is fairly priced at around $1,200/oz. The graph below shows the
sample of the mid-point price points for this year, expressed as a
percentage of all price samples. The underlying data is for XAU_USD currency pair, from Oanda's trading platform, analysis of all M1 intervals
available for calendar year 2015 to date.<br>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCWU3ljEKYs_8mDt03cq1_qr9V9_tThyphenhyphen9XkieitdnbPzqMXl2l4cWqQP9OEWjN0S23KJKM19s_-3rGKSKB1kC2gKg-of_S-BQpOz1Mqd6ss2i7FeyC_bmRChgfDYQpDyxbg4wcs4MI5EFi/s1600/Untitled-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="315" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCWU3ljEKYs_8mDt03cq1_qr9V9_tThyphenhyphen9XkieitdnbPzqMXl2l4cWqQP9OEWjN0S23KJKM19s_-3rGKSKB1kC2gKg-of_S-BQpOz1Mqd6ss2i7FeyC_bmRChgfDYQpDyxbg4wcs4MI5EFi/s400/Untitled-1.png" width="400"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">$30 range around $1200/oz is highlighted in yellow.<br>
Data points are for Jan - May 2015, from Oanda.</td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<a href="https://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2015/05/quick-analysis-on-sticky-gold-chart.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>Warren Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-69643717530011955342015-05-23T14:05:00.000+01:002015-05-24T06:20:59.304+01:00Worldwide Turmoil, Financial Upheaval and Cataclysm<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpmUPM_aoOxxsWT84XY-wmq0QA0NcVLuU3FvDjRKcnXmS2wtG_9VUPuvxWD0Hthxibirp-SSORcjOfNm_4yyRfwRl0785CnILcIQAvoMl-mvtD_MvSfe8Po5ddI15kuKw95DkNGR0Vb_Cx/s1600/dark_aye_aye.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpmUPM_aoOxxsWT84XY-wmq0QA0NcVLuU3FvDjRKcnXmS2wtG_9VUPuvxWD0Hthxibirp-SSORcjOfNm_4yyRfwRl0785CnILcIQAvoMl-mvtD_MvSfe8Po5ddI15kuKw95DkNGR0Vb_Cx/s1600/dark_aye_aye.jpg"></a></div>
When the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 occurred, many including myself were shocked enough to start doing further investigation into the nuts and bolts of our modern financial system. My <i>at-the-time-research</i> led me to be long gold and short sydney property - in 2011. Here we are in 2015 and the result of that is pretty (painfully) clear to me. It's not just my timeframes which were screwy, it became obvious that most of the narrative I had collected was incorrect. Recently I've been exploring this <a href="http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2015/03/the-wheels-on-bus-go.html" target="_blank">dichotomy</a>, but today I want to bring some definition to something that comes up in a lot of discussion - <i>the idea that the <b>GFC </b>was simply just a dress researsal for something much bigger</i>.<br>
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Giving this supposed event a name allows us to study it better, so I'm proposing the term <b>'Worldwide Turmoil, Financial Upheaval and Cataclysm'</b> or <b>WTFUC </b>for short. We have a new poll running at the right hand side of the page here - I encourage you to vote in it because it's kind of unique - the poll will run for 20 years finishing in 2035 and (fingers crossed) I hope to be around to write a synopsis on the final results. If the blogger platform remains constant then you should always be able to change your vote over time, although it won't let me change the options. The poll allows you to nominate your expected timing for the WTFUC and the hope is that this helps us discuss our beliefs and expectations in a practical fashion (even as they may change over time).<br>
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<a href="https://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2015/05/worldwide-turmoil-financial-upheaval.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>Warren Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.com35tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-80526877926521535082015-05-22T00:09:00.002+01:002015-05-22T00:15:11.660+01:00Correlation does not always mean....correlation.Just a quick post.
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I read a lot of stuff, mostly financial, and I'm always interested in others' views. However, I read everything with a critical mindset, especially when there's a paid service being touted. Nevertheless, sometimes 'free' content can highlight some interesting facts about the 'expert' analysis.
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I just read <a href="http://nftrh.com/2015/05/21/pigs-break-out-w-yields/">this post</a> and noticed something that I decided to share, merely because it is so obvious, it made me smile.
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<blockquote>
</blockquote>
There's a chart within the post which shows the KBW Bank Index plotted against the gold price over the last couple of years. The writer makes the point that the two have been negatively correlated for a long while, and has placed some arrows on the two charts to illustrate this point, with green up arrows on the bank index, and red down arrows on the gold chart. Very easy to follow for the simple souls that might be seeking 'expert' views. (Disclaimer: I am colour blind, but the arrows do look red/green to me).
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Trouble is, the arrows don't align at all! Ok, well to be fair, one pair of arrows does align, but two pairs don't align at all, in fact they show that the two charts are positively correlated on those two occasions. Weird eh? Here's the chart with my vertical lines added:
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQJSuae9ljMsjZ1myWz83tqFqr3aiVqGSnEFHrXsderKymoBd42iScL-3a9KGaueaEcY07KWMF6PXtFGyKVR6Kik_7o5x79879eS8D6MFImKNcNZ7Ysx37oMZP-xGvGnSPsnG_-5n_bf4/s1600/Correlation_.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQJSuae9ljMsjZ1myWz83tqFqr3aiVqGSnEFHrXsderKymoBd42iScL-3a9KGaueaEcY07KWMF6PXtFGyKVR6Kik_7o5x79879eS8D6MFImKNcNZ7Ysx37oMZP-xGvGnSPsnG_-5n_bf4/s400/Correlation_.png" /></a></div>
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What's most interesting about this little slip up is that the writer often criticises sloppy analysis elsewhere, but isn't immune to it himself. No one is perfect of course (perhaps his ruler slipped), but some are more sanctimonious than others.
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLXQgEkcNCU_X8YzQf-uBcHzSU9It6yK28CXn2foCgyBn6LIWThyphenhyphen9KztC7zjoF7llYk9ztuBErFYHp88zTezbE87sZmKTtLIksaRnsYMi4lJ8brTleUoyYIPSL0bDxOj3P2ydecJwBmlg/s1600/prosimian.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLXQgEkcNCU_X8YzQf-uBcHzSU9It6yK28CXn2foCgyBn6LIWThyphenhyphen9KztC7zjoF7llYk9ztuBErFYHp88zTezbE87sZmKTtLIksaRnsYMi4lJ8brTleUoyYIPSL0bDxOj3P2ydecJwBmlg/s200/prosimian.jpg" /></a></div>
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Good luck.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-74785149723323713812015-05-18T00:42:00.003+01:002015-05-18T09:00:35.934+01:00Sunday PM pre-game, 5/17/2015<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUHVnbUMs32DueGxYcY8GSOCRsfkCHR7NR5KD9kY1AP0qhiR_FBUN1wXBhcLBu2vWewGgekOLOiHU3TyYy3wwEIHT44Fpajg9Rywt0hWpo_zBtbAoXzaMVtI2IqQouyTKKvg3jKFc42Oj2/s1600/1tarsier-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUHVnbUMs32DueGxYcY8GSOCRsfkCHR7NR5KD9kY1AP0qhiR_FBUN1wXBhcLBu2vWewGgekOLOiHU3TyYy3wwEIHT44Fpajg9Rywt0hWpo_zBtbAoXzaMVtI2IqQouyTKKvg3jKFc42Oj2/s1600/1tarsier-1.png"></a></div>
Greetings, friends!<br>
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There's been a rally in gold and silver since last we spoke, and my educated guess is that it has provoked and inspired a lot of chatter on the net that the tide has turned, gold is finally headed to $2000, etc.<br>
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Now, regarding the online chatter from the usual suspects, that's only a guess, since I haven't been online recently. Truth be told, I don't have a computer. Can't afford one. I'm currently at the public library next to the Beckley, West Virginia Hooters. (Speaking of which, I love hearing the laughter of children, but not when I'm eating French fries at Hooters. I might have to start looking elsewhere to dine.)<br>
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Anyway, the next long term bull cycle in the PM market is not here yet, but I'm seeing this August as a legitimate candidate for a final bottom. You heard it here first. But since that's still months away, here are some charts to keep you guys busy. I'm gonna get right to it here, as my hour at the public library is just about up.<br>
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The situation in gold hasn't changed since my last post. Outlook bearish until $1250 can be cleared. But there are so many different lines and curves of resistance there, I don't see it happening. For example, here's a chart I haven't pulled out in a while: the 89-week (Fib) moving average (green), the breaking of which augured the April 2013 crash <br>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijKA9pAzncuKb3BcaiRoHVcfftkcrX_eEzIrNKTaqwaQ_NGngm0dS124pSem7fWndLkNNpySvckKyRTWdjA70UBKGnMOzmx8McgZv_ctrxv_nN5l8IY3RxLw1u0tMdIXhawZCTGOfx2axU/s1600/66.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="169" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijKA9pAzncuKb3BcaiRoHVcfftkcrX_eEzIrNKTaqwaQ_NGngm0dS124pSem7fWndLkNNpySvckKyRTWdjA70UBKGnMOzmx8McgZv_ctrxv_nN5l8IY3RxLw1u0tMdIXhawZCTGOfx2axU/s320/66.png" width="320"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbO9HNbaGz9l41ia7qeVjmKVxzqLI801-HWe4kXYFTUmfULXO6r4T0oGmT8OccdRK9P4HUajK2PV3E6g-nHAdTbu4PzmjCmjf3Y0D2oQYxE7GastVv9lmUBfSlQdzybX1Y5-sTNF6APpVM/s1600/34.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="104" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbO9HNbaGz9l41ia7qeVjmKVxzqLI801-HWe4kXYFTUmfULXO6r4T0oGmT8OccdRK9P4HUajK2PV3E6g-nHAdTbu4PzmjCmjf3Y0D2oQYxE7GastVv9lmUBfSlQdzybX1Y5-sTNF6APpVM/s200/34.png" width="200"></a></div>
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Here's a similar chart to the one from my last post. Like the 2-year MA, the 21-month (Fib) MA is right at $1250 too ...</div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHXftacvsnOnClvjcxEmHiQv1m2qDcXrxCfuFZxSJ4n-YBjDb75iY5bvB7N3etGasdaGdAyDA_KjGS3eksuPXAtvGiX7qu1u5tmGjmMsXzIujgG-tN5A_6whXg7evqY2PL4DN9fmppDZTs/s1600/43.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHXftacvsnOnClvjcxEmHiQv1m2qDcXrxCfuFZxSJ4n-YBjDb75iY5bvB7N3etGasdaGdAyDA_KjGS3eksuPXAtvGiX7qu1u5tmGjmMsXzIujgG-tN5A_6whXg7evqY2PL4DN9fmppDZTs/s400/43.png" width="400"></a><br>
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The "yields in silver" chart is snaking towards the wedge....<br>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0ydu-h90JFcVjLvGzZJLGOipMLVfKbrZymrB9BehxUShUe285txhPMNHRYH8excG-dddI3hTIdM7Rg6JGeB8EnULWwBXUOCLR-SezVUxhvVxanGl5oK8F2l4j2ywXMMO54ZlzEvb686Qs/s1600/sc-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="140" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0ydu-h90JFcVjLvGzZJLGOipMLVfKbrZymrB9BehxUShUe285txhPMNHRYH8excG-dddI3hTIdM7Rg6JGeB8EnULWwBXUOCLR-SezVUxhvVxanGl5oK8F2l4j2ywXMMO54ZlzEvb686Qs/s320/sc-1.png" width="320"></a><br>
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Note GDXJ has popped out of its 3-sigma bollinger band for the first time since its inception. We see that a lot - fairly obvious short covering rally. Yet- it's barely gone up 5%</div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ9TzJRevGNCrXKJXtz23_SeZC5gUU0i7DDZWuyco1LUCGNO29faSVmicJUErojdQ_aU72pP1Xme5WUhzvrYYIYhyphenhyphencM_tBBiNgGGvnlYGJ2fnHvIfD19yHUclsEv7vmIDpk7pVHvkfqjKJ/s1600/23.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ9TzJRevGNCrXKJXtz23_SeZC5gUU0i7DDZWuyco1LUCGNO29faSVmicJUErojdQ_aU72pP1Xme5WUhzvrYYIYhyphenhyphencM_tBBiNgGGvnlYGJ2fnHvIfD19yHUclsEv7vmIDpk7pVHvkfqjKJ/s400/23.png" width="400"></a><br>
<a href="https://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2015/05/sunday-pm-pre-game-5172015.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>GM Jenkinshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-69115447385726710742015-04-30T02:20:00.001+01:002015-05-07T23:26:29.224+01:00Reinventing the Democratic Process in Australia<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgedCz52uZ1ApoZ92z9GeiS8u_aR5C_xBK0_MwYpJotWPAeft9lkzkJhOyB0vbT3bQM4N_OFTUvJyNEqtcfptc_CE1ujKeJTsbqJ5uNsMcSyyHLBAUP75V1k4kQmoY5YBSvxIeEW9l101GM/s150/ayeaye_missing.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgedCz52uZ1ApoZ92z9GeiS8u_aR5C_xBK0_MwYpJotWPAeft9lkzkJhOyB0vbT3bQM4N_OFTUvJyNEqtcfptc_CE1ujKeJTsbqJ5uNsMcSyyHLBAUP75V1k4kQmoY5YBSvxIeEW9l101GM/s150/ayeaye_missing.jpg"></a></div>
Recently in Australia, the Labor party joined hands with the Liberals to pass a bill on <a href="http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2015/02/australian-data-retention-proposal.html" target="_blank">Data Retention</a>, showing the primary distinctions between the two duopolist parties: i.e. <b>no difference at all</b>. With this incident, the political term 'opposition' gets relegated to 'sad joke' status and squarely demonstrates Australia's tepid leadership. While our bureaucratic overlords seem to think this is a great game, I pondered whether the bill would have had any support from the <i>general public</i>; in PROTEST I have <b>designed an overhaul of the entire Australian electoral system</b>, which I present for review. Those of you who are advanced in Political Science can set me straight on which elements are impractical, but please consider every part in total first:<br>
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<i>Goals:</i><br>
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</i></ol>
<ul>
<li>- Take advantage of modern technological advancements (but is <b>not</b> in itself <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-democracy" target="_blank">E-Democracy</a>), to generally increase the <i>security</i>, <i>quality </i>and <i>speed </i>of electoral results.</li>
<li>- Maximize the satisfaction levels of <i>all participants</i> (individuals or collectives), with the view this enables <b>efficiency</b> and <b>empowerment</b>.</li>
<li>- Reduce waste by limiting size and power of government.</li>
<li>- Bring more transparency to positions of influence in the voting process.</li>
<li>- Use free market mechanisms to reward honesty and punish bad political behaviour.</li>
<li>- Produce the most accurate map of the wishes of the voting public.</li>
</ul>
<ol>
</ol>
<i>Constraints:</i><br>
<ul>
<li>- Zero political-will to change the current system.</li>
<li>- One hundred years of bloated, bureaucratic legacy.</li>
<li>- Weak leadership with vested interests.</li>
</ul>
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Sadly, both the <b>goals</b> and <b>constraints</b> are <i>simultaneously </i>the reasons why change will never be put into place - even as I write this article, the current government are proposing new laws to limit the influence of micro-parties.<b> </b>My ideas first got rolling when I was reading about the recent iVoting in the NSW election, where a team of independent researchers <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-23/ivote-security-hack-allowed-change-of-vote-security-expert-says/6340168" target="_blank">found a flaw in the voting website</a>. I considered penning an article on that alone from my tech background (suffice to say security is purely a question of quality), but was more interested in the surrounding discussion where someone highlighted the conundrum: 'with internet-voting it is impossible to design a system which ensures the person voting <i>cannot sell their vote</i>'. So I started a thought experiment 'if selling your vote <b>were </b>allowed, would that help things and what would change?' It led to an interesting design, here are the primary elements of my proposal:<br>
<a href="https://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2015/04/reinventing-democratic-process-in.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>Warren Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-42746229521325911622015-04-27T19:07:00.000+01:002015-05-24T19:25:59.020+01:00Martin Armstrong's TenseHello again.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhejNEjRIwOvuBYvpjw3GWVTweo-PvAIOTjcxGREFpgZ23xA6z890nHzEYmosmuTiDCIT9Nnwu5m6iyLNFPsvWUf2JmK6q7o6_6i8nfRHb32BPLmujvlokIHTms15PzwXZrtLZlmlzXG7c/s1600/Martin+Armstrong.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhejNEjRIwOvuBYvpjw3GWVTweo-PvAIOTjcxGREFpgZ23xA6z890nHzEYmosmuTiDCIT9Nnwu5m6iyLNFPsvWUf2JmK6q7o6_6i8nfRHb32BPLmujvlokIHTms15PzwXZrtLZlmlzXG7c/s320/Martin+Armstrong.jpg" /></a></div>
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I read Martin Armstrong's blog every day. Much as I grimace at his spelling and grammar standards, I do enjoy his insights and his passion about the world's troubles and what lies ahead. I recognise that he's running a business, and has some 'product' to sell, so a pinch of salt is sometimes required, but in my view he's forgotten more about the markets, the world and its history, and cycles, than most of us will ever know, and that includes <b>all<i></i></b> of the so-called experts and amateurs that write at length online these days.
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So, I was interested in a paragraph he wrote very recently regarding one of my favourite assets: gold.
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Here's the paragraph to which I refer:
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<a href="http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/04/25/updating-the-markets-the-key-is-the-corruption-that-will-make-the-turn/">Gold has been turning back down as it has lost much of its luster among broader base investors. In fact, there are people now starting to say gold is dead since it has declined in the face of monetization by the Fed and the ECB. The wider view is the gold rally was all hype and it will never rally. This too is what I warned MUST take place BEFORE you get the low. We had to “shake the tree” and get them all out.</a>
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Mr Armstrong has been vociferous in recent years in his criticisms of the 'gold promoters' out there, who fail to appreciate how the gold price moves in line with short and longer-term cycles. He produced a timing report on the precious metals last year (I think) and sold this to anyone interested, and it contained his system's key turning points for prices, and he made it clear that lower prices were ahead for much of the past few years. A good call for sure. More recently he has appeared to soften his tone towards gold somewhat.
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I happened to notice one key word in the section I have copied above:
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'This too is what I warned MUST take place BEFORE you get the low. We <b>had<i></i></b> to “shake the tree” and get them all out.'
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Unusually, he has switched from using the present or future tense to using the past tense in relation to ridding the market of the short-term bull players and allowing a bottom in price to form (now do you see what a great play on words this blog title is?).
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So, I wonder, is the gold price past its lows? Are we in a new stealth bull market already, but no one has noticed? Time will tell, but like many of you reading this who have bought more gold recently, I reckon the past 2 years will turn out to have been one of the great buying opportunities we shall ever see for any asset class during our lifetimes.
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If the long-term interest rate and inflation cycles turn in due course (next year or two, after a deflationary scare), then another gold-related asset (its miners) could also be set for a spectacular 20 years or so. Have a look at this long-term Barron's Gold Mining Index chart, which I have split into (fairly rough) sections. Sadly the BGMI chart doesn't go back quite as far as I would like, so we have to make do with what we have, but it would seem that for the period following the Great Depression, right through until inflation/recessions started to appear in the mid 1960s, the gold miners did very little. Then from 1965 until 1982, the miners had a huge run, along with gold, both up by around 2400%.
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5_BlYKRVHPl8FcTp2ZkcKdp2Mnm58vZ-EKGrqTagLXlmJFLWzOBcvne7_VpAKSSrZpDa_ANX3ur5k07ZxCLRVwGTynglySxdlD3ibHS8vzGOEY8UIfC_u2D7bPeitnO_UAgUf6xF6hpg/s1600/long_term_BGMI.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5_BlYKRVHPl8FcTp2ZkcKdp2Mnm58vZ-EKGrqTagLXlmJFLWzOBcvne7_VpAKSSrZpDa_ANX3ur5k07ZxCLRVwGTynglySxdlD3ibHS8vzGOEY8UIfC_u2D7bPeitnO_UAgUf6xF6hpg/s320/long_term_BGMI.png" /></a></div>
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It seems inevitable to me that the 32 year interest rate cycle will turn within a couple of years, and we'll be back in a period much like the 1970s, with rolling currency crises, very little real growth, and a lack of faith in central banks or governments to do much about it (at last). So, interest rates will rise, asset prices will rise as money seeks something real as a hedge, and as we saw in the 70s, gold and its miners could be the best investment to hold for the long run. If gold rises to c. $2,500 through the end of the current cycle, and then does another 2400% run in the following 16-18 years, you'd be looking at a gold price of $60,000 an ounce. And of course a very similar rise in the share price of its miners, just like in the 65-82 period. Then, in 2034, it would perhaps be time to move away from gold? Ah, who cares, I'll be an old man by then, we'll review it all again nearer the time.
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In closing, I had an interesting chat last year <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kwgSkYvEEs">whilst on holiday</a> with a geologist who works for a multi-billion dollar family office (brewing wealth), and they'd just completed on a tiny £100 million deal to buy a gold mine in Africa (I forget the country). I asked her what would be the likely situation with the mine if the gold price were to experience a sustained and significant price increase over a number of years, were they worried about the local government repossessing the mine? She explained that these days most mining deals have a profit-sharing clause to take care of that, so everyone gains on the upside, but the capital risk is solely with the investor if prices fall. The deal, interestingly, was part-funded by Kuwaiti investors.
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Good luck.
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Edit (24/5/15)
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I had an email from Nick Laird (Sharelynx.com) today. He has kindly put together a longer-term version of his BGMI chart shown above. The chart below uses Homestake Mining from 1890 through to 1925 & then Homestake & Dome through to 1938, when it joins the BGMI index until 1945, when it then joins the SP Gold index. Thanks Nick.
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Here's the chart:
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF46hvwBYOvRHmOgFo40QHOeAl3hvbRJIfYTEuOGPOUXA9ZBBrWedJiYHJdenhJ1lCi3gZzBdXNLnlfg81r2j1haqXd-sZiBE_l5VjJ-H1HHpum0s-DfT5lb51MjNqw8bHYCGWOSySfmA/s1600/gold_miner_cycles.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF46hvwBYOvRHmOgFo40QHOeAl3hvbRJIfYTEuOGPOUXA9ZBBrWedJiYHJdenhJ1lCi3gZzBdXNLnlfg81r2j1haqXd-sZiBE_l5VjJ-H1HHpum0s-DfT5lb51MjNqw8bHYCGWOSySfmA/s400/gold_miner_cycles.png" /></a></div>
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The chart proved my earlier guess, that after the 1933 dollar devaluation against gold, the miners entered a long period of consolidation, from 1933 through to 1965. But they delivered a quick 1000% gain from around 1925 through to 1933.
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It is apparent that the 'gold recapitalisation' period was twice as long in the 60s-70s, with a gain in gold and its miners that was more than twice as large as in the 30s. Does that offer any clues for what lies ahead in the 2020s-2030s? The world's debt bubble hasn't got any smaller has it? We will see in due course.
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-31907774960809738102015-04-20T11:22:00.002+01:002015-04-28T00:02:29.315+01:00Why Does The Price of Silver Matter?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga4CUflIQxZAgIK7LUybuj84uhICDs9ZY-xVsG0v53y3hMdU68Hur8jRDIHL2MGwrqiopOxbF5AYdyidBNvpNF44VGO4vfTUg2TvEF2Tp5OCX2vjM5l0Y2pjnWEbsoKQ6TJnsnE744x_Qw/s1600/slow_loris_square_MAIN_ARTICLE.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga4CUflIQxZAgIK7LUybuj84uhICDs9ZY-xVsG0v53y3hMdU68Hur8jRDIHL2MGwrqiopOxbF5AYdyidBNvpNF44VGO4vfTUg2TvEF2Tp5OCX2vjM5l0Y2pjnWEbsoKQ6TJnsnE744x_Qw/s200/slow_loris_square_MAIN_ARTICLE.jpg"></a></div>
Those of us even tangentially interested in silver will no doubt be aware of Ted Butler’s incessant allegations that JP Morgan is the major manipulator of its price on the COMEX future’s market, which it purportedly accomplishes by selling huge amounts of short contracts while simultaneously, but often covertly, accumulating massive amounts of the physical metal in various forms. In a recently published article on SilverSeek, <a href="http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/unavoidable-comparison-14284">http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/unavoidable-comparison-14284</a>, he alleges that the bank took on that role at the behest of the US Government back in 2008 when Bear Sterns went under, being rewarded by the tidy profits they routinely make in the futures market and the immense gains they stand to make if/when they unload their silver hoard at significantly higher prices.<br>
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<a href="https://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2015/04/why-does-price-of-silver-matter_20.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>Slow Lorishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14747181428888105679noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-3720392631343584892015-04-19T22:21:00.001+01:002015-04-20T20:36:57.489+01:00Sunday PM pre-game, 4/19/2015<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtE5jYBdsLuS-GwasVMHqOGObrQ7EcjsXhnMeXZHDRxWVxuhtonNXM1kZAIIIwNg0waQZD71gLoNaOA3z98xwRHH5wxmH054pzL-9T49FGyHbhjYTSQOjVWnWvVk3M_OVGJL0uojllCChb/s1600/1tarsier-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtE5jYBdsLuS-GwasVMHqOGObrQ7EcjsXhnMeXZHDRxWVxuhtonNXM1kZAIIIwNg0waQZD71gLoNaOA3z98xwRHH5wxmH054pzL-9T49FGyHbhjYTSQOjVWnWvVk3M_OVGJL0uojllCChb/s1600/1tarsier-1.png"></a>Greetings friends!<br>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYClfBaS9JBZkacw8diqTpZjHhv5_T1CmMu7KIWVif3TV8AU11HAYBpuDce2L9Fe4q9sjs4rN78ROT91QgJrmIJso3Zcj-Cz9lNyh7oZTBqRViyqxxRF5epamTnC5DgSOhCsVWUgtPdGQs/s1600/Picture+3(2).png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYClfBaS9JBZkacw8diqTpZjHhv5_T1CmMu7KIWVif3TV8AU11HAYBpuDce2L9Fe4q9sjs4rN78ROT91QgJrmIJso3Zcj-Cz9lNyh7oZTBqRViyqxxRF5epamTnC5DgSOhCsVWUgtPdGQs/s1600/Picture+3(2).png" height="166" width="400"></a>Figured I'd post an update since I started building a short position in gold and silver Friday. Simple idea: I will close it if gold crosses the 2-yr moving average on this monthly chart.<br>
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<a href="https://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2015/04/sunday-pm-pre-game-4192015.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>GM Jenkinshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-82398518653468365992015-04-14T00:03:00.000+01:002015-08-18T21:58:48.181+01:00It's not easy being an animalHello everyone. After several years of reading and commenting here, I’m pleased to have been given the opportunity to provide some posts for your perusal.
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I’m going to start by sharing some thoughts on some apparent ironies and paradoxes of evolution on our planet. I’m going to focus specifically on the Darwinian theory of natural selection, also commonly known as ‘survival of the fittest’, and how this may apply to humankind in particular.
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We humans are so much further down the evolutionary path than every other species aren’t we? We have amazing technologies, we are self-aware, we have governments to organise things, and we seem to continually be making great strides in improving our living standards, as well as our average life spans, especially in the developed (part of the) world of course. There also seems to be a continuing and growing desire to move towards humankind sharing its resources more, and looking out for those who are in need, especially within national borders.
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Some call this socialism, which I believe means being friendly and caring to your fellow humans, and sharing with them (unless they’re very rich or foreign of course), ideally via a government agency, as opposed to getting one’s own hands dirty. The desire to see a fair society and a fair world, where everything is shared via central planning is perhaps not a good fit with the ‘survival of the fittest’ principle. Also, the internet seems to be enabling people from around the world to join together in a way never seen before, sharing information and views. In many ways it is a whole new world these past 20 years.
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<a href="https://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2015/04/its-not-easy-being-animal.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-66829130696249996652015-03-03T12:54:00.002+00:002015-03-04T00:53:55.525+00:00The Wheels on the Bus go ...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK4PB_vnFVQVJTT3jRgh2gPcKvdDbTYYVTl6mtry-GBC9-S1ORxry3MrXEuNNiDriJ_N3D-D6kwLzLzfZ-UTMjpxSNkPqSCO4Rj9YWscFRYKeOmkjrlmZazANK3nyFUf07VJB0vXIcUkHl/s1600/Creaci%C3%B3n_de_Ad%C3%A1n_(Miguel_%C3%81ngel)_modified_490.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK4PB_vnFVQVJTT3jRgh2gPcKvdDbTYYVTl6mtry-GBC9-S1ORxry3MrXEuNNiDriJ_N3D-D6kwLzLzfZ-UTMjpxSNkPqSCO4Rj9YWscFRYKeOmkjrlmZazANK3nyFUf07VJB0vXIcUkHl/s1600/Creaci%C3%B3n_de_Ad%C3%A1n_(Miguel_%C3%81ngel)_modified_490.jpg"></a></div>
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Over lunch last week, the Australian branch of the Screwtape Files team got talking world matters. Big topic: '<i>How is it that the wheels have not yet fallen off?</i>'. Here we are in 2015 and the horrific financial collapse and devastation predicted by many - take your pick of the massive smorgasboard of potential disaster: <a href="http://armstrongeconomics.com/" target="_blank">Armstrong's Big Bang 2015.75</a>, <a href="http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/03/dumbest-bubble-history/" target="_blank">Australian Property Crash</a>, <a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/" target="_blank">China Economy Collapse</a>, <a href="http://fofoa.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">Revaluation of Physical Gold</a>, <a href="http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com.au/" target="_blank">Hyperinflation</a>, Global Derivatives failure, Grexit from Eurozone, <a href="http://zerohedge.com/" target="_blank">Kondratieff Winter</a>, Bond Bubble Busting (etc) ... all of these are big ticket items so the fact that none of them have yet come to pass in finality (despite appearing to be constantly on the brink) seems to indicate that Ben Bernanke and his ilk <i>really have</i> worked some magic, albeit arcane and unholy.<br>
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<a href="https://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2015/03/the-wheels-on-bus-go.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>Warren Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00631403827559820571noreply@blogger.com56tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5673441815180854503.post-43678637698058058162015-02-25T00:37:00.001+00:002015-02-25T00:41:21.438+00:00Checking in<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDsaViYhFEyivY-0b4G_P8GflnjbCR_LZPSoq9A7vkkn_yUPGIydwz7vq0Y6wLXQFC5bwkpFQcjtbn3LgT8EY6PDnW9jWj8eKmyoYTo7kMDBWGYk-rRZlAjWow_Z5s-JWuPP9mQTaldrvN/s1600/1tarsier-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDsaViYhFEyivY-0b4G_P8GflnjbCR_LZPSoq9A7vkkn_yUPGIydwz7vq0Y6wLXQFC5bwkpFQcjtbn3LgT8EY6PDnW9jWj8eKmyoYTo7kMDBWGYk-rRZlAjWow_Z5s-JWuPP9mQTaldrvN/s1600/1tarsier-1.png"></a>Hello friends,<br>
As I mentioned in a previous comment, I'm on a brief sabbatical from STFU. But I see our friend Gary requested a chart a while back, so here are six (no financial repression here!).<br>
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First, a big picture view of gold.<br>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoZ5hAgX-Gilc28VtXrz_Z-82ib9tw7-MYYKPP3BSLa-mtcslJdSKQRBpUQ-SNbBjZk-vc8OEaCFll6gtgbwzadLzKn2qHA5y5S_e76hKYQgfUJ9Fk7N7UDsi7i-GaNjg161s0skQF98Cg/s1600/sc-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoZ5hAgX-Gilc28VtXrz_Z-82ib9tw7-MYYKPP3BSLa-mtcslJdSKQRBpUQ-SNbBjZk-vc8OEaCFll6gtgbwzadLzKn2qHA5y5S_e76hKYQgfUJ9Fk7N7UDsi7i-GaNjg161s0skQF98Cg/s1600/sc-1.png" height="176" width="400"></a>Looking at 5 wk exponential moving averages in 5 major currencies, we see (1) the 2013 crash was minor in the big picture, but (2), (as I've been saying since then) that marked the end of the bull market of 2001-2011, and consequently, it would take some time before the next up-leg. Regarding which (and I'm in complete agreement with the most rabid gold bugs here) is on its way. Just not yet. <br>
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Incidentally, I have to laugh at the establishment types and apologists who think gold has no tie-in to macroeconomic fundamentals anymore. I.e. the blinkered ones who <i>willfully </i>refuse to see the tie-in between the growing debt (and consequent income inequality) since the 1970s and the jettisoning of what was left of the gold standard.<br>
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... e.g. note when the wage curves actually flatten, and where the New York Times puts the vertical demarcation here:<br>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2HMPWIwJ-0sacFdn6-8KZJzt2TuwUa-O_GBqZ10u_IRiV47ozfto8HYPMJWx49vfd34uIh-xAY6aMfCP8sQ7mUZ6aZ_4vim_KA4-CnMuOm06OPmnB_onibeu39bffpHeqc71gfqn4X7t8/s1600/BtbauMtCQAAgq8q.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2HMPWIwJ-0sacFdn6-8KZJzt2TuwUa-O_GBqZ10u_IRiV47ozfto8HYPMJWx49vfd34uIh-xAY6aMfCP8sQ7mUZ6aZ_4vim_KA4-CnMuOm06OPmnB_onibeu39bffpHeqc71gfqn4X7t8/s1600/BtbauMtCQAAgq8q.jpg" height="258" width="320"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">If you integrate under (Productivity - Wage), you get ($$ stolen by Financial Parasites)</td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-eCehb3UZv2dWQzkp7alRvmW1Eo_XffABu205REWlWucePCBUdQNRuNHp20APKXXjyBnXBElwgfzXEBUci4atS1WVVTndMRfGlNH1NaF8tJVfzutN2QR42kGi8gCDRl-Jibr8pt7lT8Gs/s1600/20130911_inequal1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_b_KBemZq50ZeFUGU8AiiP1tCn_WaDtEog2cP4CILbr9BpfPzrCwKkqI9VobGfWAreY3iC4oqVdbnYyFpUqtlVoWecI0KNrxQS0ceWkKbfZ7ULByUiTRSDRyGwoa843hgbOdc7Kkx73gz/s1600/sc-4.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_b_KBemZq50ZeFUGU8AiiP1tCn_WaDtEog2cP4CILbr9BpfPzrCwKkqI9VobGfWAreY3iC4oqVdbnYyFpUqtlVoWecI0KNrxQS0ceWkKbfZ7ULByUiTRSDRyGwoa843hgbOdc7Kkx73gz/s1600/sc-4.png" height="190" width="320"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">As I predicted it would do when I unveiled this chart many months ago, gold hit the MA-rainbow and has turned, just as it has done in previous corrections. Keep your eye on the horizontal green RSI line above.</td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVHM9TmoFxV89ZNOvCQT5OQBiHSbE6xiT9fsm8Z-i5K4v8ibPcwUwknV31Wzl4QOcT7p85jC43jS6t78Cid9N5DVpb5KSn_uTkHLr5bMh8KwYzdT4BBrLZO87vWoZxaoQoQ-Ic58hjjjEk/s1600/sc.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVHM9TmoFxV89ZNOvCQT5OQBiHSbE6xiT9fsm8Z-i5K4v8ibPcwUwknV31Wzl4QOcT7p85jC43jS6t78Cid9N5DVpb5KSn_uTkHLr5bMh8KwYzdT4BBrLZO87vWoZxaoQoQ-Ic58hjjjEk/s1600/sc.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a></div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVHM9TmoFxV89ZNOvCQT5OQBiHSbE6xiT9fsm8Z-i5K4v8ibPcwUwknV31Wzl4QOcT7p85jC43jS6t78Cid9N5DVpb5KSn_uTkHLr5bMh8KwYzdT4BBrLZO87vWoZxaoQoQ-Ic58hjjjEk/s1600/sc.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVHM9TmoFxV89ZNOvCQT5OQBiHSbE6xiT9fsm8Z-i5K4v8ibPcwUwknV31Wzl4QOcT7p85jC43jS6t78Cid9N5DVpb5KSn_uTkHLr5bMh8KwYzdT4BBrLZO87vWoZxaoQoQ-Ic58hjjjEk/s1600/sc.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVHM9TmoFxV89ZNOvCQT5OQBiHSbE6xiT9fsm8Z-i5K4v8ibPcwUwknV31Wzl4QOcT7p85jC43jS6t78Cid9N5DVpb5KSn_uTkHLr5bMh8KwYzdT4BBrLZO87vWoZxaoQoQ-Ic58hjjjEk/s1600/sc.png" height="140" width="320"></a><br>
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<a href="https://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2015/02/checking-in.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p></p></div>GM Jenkinshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09133132062816684129noreply@blogger.com4