According to my benchmark chart on gold's intermediate cycles (weekly 3-line break, DJIA:GDXJ), we've had a bearish reversal, and I probably won't be long gold for awhile. However, I will wait to see confirmation on the similar chart I use for silver (GLD:GDXJ) before going short.
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Now, it's true that gold is still above the 20-30-wk MA ribbon:
However, the price action looks similar to the false breakout of September 2012 (after the QE3 announcement that caught many off guard). By that, I mean a strong jump occurred above the ribbon, followed by a weak, momentum-less bounce off support that couldn't make it to the previous weekly closing high. Gold then fell to its first Fibonacci line (top blue, horizontal), and this time I bet it's headed to the second 50% Fib (center blue line)
Second, now that reader "David P. of Europe" has stolen the above chart and sold it to Eric King for 20 pieces of worthless fiat, I decided to look for a comparable monthly version, and what I found was simultaneously Astonishing and Staggering.
I don't thing Eric King will be posting this one soon, however, because it indicates that the gold bear market probably has another few years to go.
Note how important the monthly moving average ribbon has been, going way, way back (I shan't reveal the specifics, lest David P. of Europe betray me again, but here's a hint: the bounds are Fibonacci numbers). The upper bound is still well over the old line in the sand, $1525, and anyone who thinks that level won't pose serious resistance needs to remove KWN from his bookmarks posthaste. So basically, it seems probable to me that gold will first need to get to the MA ribbon (probably after the ribbon has fallen significantly lower than where it lies presently), and bump and track below it for awhile, before a legitimate Bottom is manifest.
There will be another clue: check the monthly RSI: the vertical dotted lines (white), which cycle quite regularly every 7-8 years, denote when the 50% RSI level was cleared to the upside after a break below AND the monthly MA-ribbon was cleared (surprisingly, these have generally been simultaneous events!) These points signal the tradeable Gold Bottoms exceedingly well. So we must needs wait.
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