- I graciously acknowledge the input provided by various people including Mark Hynes and Bron Suchecki.
- The database by itself (the warehousing of data) does not 'prove' the validity of the bar lists. However, it provides a base for addressing discussion at 'Level 1, 2 and 3'. For anyone wishing to critique the approach, we recommend you read this post about 'How Can We Trust the Bar List Data?' first, and then comment.
- The ETF bars only show us a portion of bullion on the market - more specifically 'Category 1 (of 7)', "Identified Bullion Inventories". For a full discussion of the other types of Bullion (which we do not track here), please refer to Larry's comprehensive Typology for Above Ground Silver Stocks.
- I generally recognize my work as the third major attempt to analyze SLV’s data. The first is Project Mayhem’s 2009 analysis; the second is Joshua Gibbon’s continued excellent work at http://about.ag/slv/.
- To date, no one has refuted my analysis (apart from ignorant generalizations). I would actually prefer that people who are able, look at the data critically. I will do my best to (a) indicate where I think limit of reading errors exist, and (b) provide as much raw data as is practical so that the process is as transparent as possible. At the heart of the project is an indexing system which allows us to trace an individual record back to the original source document (which is in the archive).
- This is the LARGEST KNOWN PUBLIC REPOSITORY OF HISTORICAL BAR LISTS ON THE INTERNET. See below for links by year, etc.
The project has three main parts:
Phase 1. Data Accumulation (status: mature)
Downloading the published Bar List information from various locations, for archive. This phase includes the automated extraction of contents, storage in the database and subsequent indexing, storage of archives in the cloud environment. The maintenance and improvement of the process is ongoing.
Phase 2. Aggregation Mechanic (status: mature)
Create a normalized data model for all bar lists, with a common list of refiners and brands. This stage gives us a core table with normalized unique bar signatures, as well as a basic 'ledger' which allows us to easily track vault movements (Universal Bar List, Universal Ledger).
Phase 3. Advanced Cleanup (status: progressing)
Identification of patterns and grouping, cleaning of the data and adding more metadata (like age of bars, etc). This phase is completed once we have a table which allows us to identify runs and sequences of bars from refiners.
Phase 4. Detailed Pattern Forensics (status: progressing)
Interpreting the results and drawing conclusions from the data. This is where we hope to do advanced stuff like look at volumes and throughput, dark bullion inventories and inter-vault movements. Hopefully this shows any correlation between the data and price movements (hopefully predictive).
Phase 5. End Game (in sight)
The continuation of the project in the long term is ultimately determined by the commercial value of the project. If the database can still be maintained at hobby level then it may continue. It is very much my hope that it will reveal some useful trading signals, which would enable me to continue this work full time.
The goals of the database are:
(A) To prove or create a reasonable set of arguments for:
(ii) ... whether the contents of the ETF's are real or fake (i.e. Tunsten or Molybdenum), by looking at refiner production runs and metals origins. (i.e. address Level 2 arguments).
(iii) ... the existence (or not) of the supposed 'Dark Pool' bullion of the OTC market, which we surmise is used by the bullion banks to affect price movements.
(D) To give me experience in handling large data volumes and mathematical processing, as the basis for another (non-metals related) project.
- SQL Server Database (combination of Trial Software and SQL Azure)
- Custom-Built Software (C#)
- PDFToText library (for PDF extraction)
- Windows Azure Blob Storage (cloud archive)
Accessing the Historical Archives: The original SLV PDF file archives are preserved in cloud storage but are quite huge. To save bandwidth costs these will be compressed before I make them available to the public (but if anyone is interested in the data please email me). The other files are somewhat smaller, and I will progressively make these archives available to the public. Clicking on each link gives a list of the files inside that particular cloud container, which is grouped by year and the library is added to automatically by my software (if not listed here, subsequent years such as 2013 can be found later by changing the year in the URL, when the calendar ticks over).
- Perth Mint Pool Allocated Silver: 2011, 2012
- Sprott Physical Silver & Gold Combined: 2010, 2011, 2012
- BullionVault (all metals): 2011, 2012, 2013
- Goldmoney (graphical): 2001, 2002, 2003
Goldmoney (PDF): 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012
- ETF Securities: 2011, 2012, 2013
- SLV iShares: 2007 (only 1), 2010 (last three months), 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
- GLD SPDR Gold Trust:
- Partial records: 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009
- Daily Records: 2011 (half year only), 2012, 2013, 2014
List of Primary Articles:
SLV Database 1 - Original premise and basis for the bullion bars project, including some basic analysis of the SLV data and ideas for the database.
SLV Database 2 - Basic analysis of SLV data to demonstrate (matched by Bar records) that some of the silver removed from SLV showed up again in subsequent 'add' events (first evidence of dark bullion).
SLV Database 3 - The most polished analysis which proves in great detail that over one quarter of the silver in the Perth Mint Allocated Pool Silver used to exist in SLV, and takes the same analysis to show that none of Sprott's PSLV bars used to exist in SLV. Discusses the implications from this.
SLV Database 4 - Another in-depth data exercise which compares the bar list data from Goldmoney and Bullionvault to conclude that some SLV bars jumped vaults. Includes a discussion of the different types of 'Vault Jumpers' as well as the implications, given that most results are pointing in one specific direction. Bad news for the 'SLV is Empty' crowd, since the amount of heavy research they must debunk, is growing substantially!
SLV Database 5 - Dark Bullion - All our investigations to date show a common element. This post dives straight into the definitions of how we can look at the warehoused data, to get more clarification on the volume of physical silver that sits behind SLV. The definitions and the chart required over 6-8 months of preparation and custom-created software and is our most sophisticated post yet.
SLV Database 6 - Sticky Bullion - Bix Weir might be onto something, or he might not. We look at the data which may support his views (or not).
Framework and Discussion:
How can We Trust the Bar List Data? When people say they don't trust the bar list data, what does that actually mean? This is my first attempt to give a breakdown of argument in an effort to improve the resolution of questions - and end up explaining what questions CANNOT be answered using the database.
Zero Hedge ZJ6752 - Bob Pisani takes a tour of the GLD vault and the bar he shows to the camera is not registered in the GLD inventory. Conspiracy? Not so fast. Because we have huge gobs of data available, we found the bar reasonably quickly and decided that the spin from the article was a storm in a teacup.
Bob Pisani Revisited (a fresh look) - Over a year later, we use our big database to successfully vindicate Bob Pisani's September 2011 documentary by identifying 10 new bars held in GLD from the video clip. Digital forensics at its best, and lots of gold bar pictures too!
Database Confirms Max Keiser Guest Statement - Dominic Frisby tells a story about the head of gold at HSBC saying he never sees any bars with 'a Chinese stamp' on them. We check the database to see whether this statement holds true from the perspective of the 34 million data points we have on record.
GLD ETF Mechanics 101 (Updated x2) - Whilst downloading the bar list from GLD, we discover a fax which describes the de-allocation process in the HSBC GLD vault. This is a great example of the bullion banking process in actual form.
Chasing Chinese Bars - the great hunt continues! In this article, we look at Julius Baer data and find no chinese-refined gold bars. Where are they? We look at possible explanations, as well as qualify what makes a good (or bad) bar list as a document source.
Got Any Leased Bars? - if you suspect you may have ownership of a bar which is leased, why not contact us and we'll check the database to see if it shows up (as a double claim of ownership) in any ETF. All information kept confidential of course, but the general idea is that your evidence combined with ours may give you 15 minutes of precious metals fame as well as monies from court cases or whatever.
A Quick GLD Dark Bullion Post - We start looking at how much returned Bullion is in the GLD additions. This is a follow-up to the SLV Database 5 article which outlined all the principles of the terminology involved with the dark bullion measurements. It was intended to be a sequel to the original observation of dark bullion in GLD, titled "An example of the Dark Bullion Effect (GLD)".
Eric Sprott's Third Bar List - Sprott's documents are starting to get a little more frequent - we look at the stuff no one else is looking at : the origin of all his new metal added to the funds. We discover the reason why no one else is looking at it - there is nothing of interest in the data - he sourced most of it from Canada.
Palladium, Platinum and Vodafone (original title) - We finally found some vault jumpers in Eric's funds, with the newly released bar lists for Palladium and Platinum. What does this mean for the Sprott in relation to other funds when he uses a common custodian for the metal? We explore, with HARD DATA.
Screwtape Looks at Silver Vault Inventories - We investigate the SLV data to find a sustained movement of silver going to the Brinks vault over a period of 10 months (nearly 100 million ounces). The results only add more frustration to the 'silver shortage / silver isn't there' meme set - is it really still credible that the silver was not real? Judge for yourself ...
Fed Gold and German Tanks - An innocent National Geographic documentary shows some gold bars, we get a glimpse of some serial numbers and make an educated guess about the bars we can't see, combining this information with the database run on the 6-digit Johnson Matthey bars to come up with some interesting visuals (first time we've used our custom charting software) and zero support for ideas of metal shortages. Anyway, why is the FED getting gold delivered?
A Different View of GLD (Part 1 of 4) -
A Different View of GLD (Part 2 of 4) -
A Different View of GLD (Part 3 of 4) -
A Different View of GLD (Part 3 of 4) -
Bibliography: I am using the following books as reference:
- Gold Refiners & Bars Worldwide (1991) by Nigel Desebrock [Grendon Research International] link
- GLD History History Book (2012) by Timothy Green [LBMA] link
Questions? Comments? Criticisms? Email: firstname.lastname@example.org