Showing posts with label Probability. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Probability. Show all posts

An example of the Dark Bullion Effect (GLD)

The GLD inventory the other week had a small uptick of inventory - just 96 gold bars - not much in the scheme of things but enough to do an analysis of 'where did those bars come from?'.

I consider the dark bullion effect significant because it invalidates more than one general thesis out there (about the metals). For anyone new to the discussion, I am defining dark bullion as 'A bar previously known and registered, re-appearing on a list after an absence.' I stand resolute on this topic simply because the signal (of the dark bullion effect) is unmistakeably clear and provides a different view of metal inventories - I have been pursuing this ever since I first detected the effect in 2011, and I want to talk about it more, with the hope that with enough discussion we might be able to squeeze some secrets out of the data.