I was expecting a large percentage of the add event to be from gold bars previously seen in the inventory (dark bullion). I wasn't disappointed. 487 bars were previously dark ... i.e. 23% new, 73% old.
Showing posts with label Manipulation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Manipulation. Show all posts
GLD Inventory Large Addition Analysis
I was expecting a large percentage of the add event to be from gold bars previously seen in the inventory (dark bullion). I wasn't disappointed. 487 bars were previously dark ... i.e. 23% new, 73% old.
The Return of the Benton
GoldMoney's at it again
Apologies to readers less anal than me about these things (which is just about everyone, I would imagine), but my little blue prosimian eyes almost popped out on stalks yesterday evening when I saw that GoldMoney's mysterious currency machinations are back again.I first revealed this weird effect here - on days when the GBP significantly weakens or strengthens against the USD, there is a sharp spike in the gold price (up or down, as appropriate) after trading hours. This spike does not appear on any other Au/GBP charts: just those of GoldMoney. It was clearly a currency 'correction', about which GoldMoney makes no mention on its website. And it can potentially cost you (or make you) serious money, if you're on the wrong (or right) side of it. Please read the first article in full, if you'd like to learn more about this.
GoldMoney and its end-of-day price 'manipulation' (updated) (again)
[UPDATE: After reading this article, you may find the reply from GoldMoney, here, interesting.]
GoldMoney is something of a darling of the precious metals community. It is a way of having a claim to ownership of gold, silver, platinum or palladium physical metal, and having it stored in a secure vault in a choice of three countries. It's not especially cheap (with premiums of 2.49% for small USD gold purchases, and 3.99% for silver, you're certainly not getting your bullion for sp(r)ot(t) price). But the premiums are not too much higher than on-line bullion vendors and coin shops, and the storage costs - at least for gold - are not extortionate.
An ambition of GoldMoney was to make gold money in a very practical way. The company foresees a time when online payments will routinely be made in gold, and had offered a facility for clients to make and receive such payments to each other. I say 'had offered', as this aspect was withdrawn on 21 January this year. So GoldMoney is no longer gold money. It's just a glorified bullion dealer.
Part of its popularity no doubt stems from the near perma-presence of its spokesperson, James Turk, on the silverogosphere. It seems like hardly a day goes by without Mr Turk popping up on KWN, Casey Research, or one of a multitude of other sites, to regale listeners and readers with tales of $10,000 gold in ten days or $600 silver in a fortnight (I am paraphrasing here for effect - but only slightly). Mr Turk actually no longer owns GoldMoney, contrary to what many seem to think, but rather acts as their paid spokesperson and consultant. GoldMoney is in fact owned by a collection of investors including Doug Casey (Ed Steer's boss), David Tice, IAMGOLD (a large Canadian mining company) and our old friend, Eric Sprott. I will leave you to draw your own conclusions about the ties between the silverogosphere, the big physical metal investors and GoldMoney and its spokesman, as that is a story for another day...
Today's little mystery concerns a curious effect that I've followed on GoldMoney's charts for some time. Now, GoldMoney's advertised prices are supposedly at spot (with the premium then added on at the time of purchase). Thus, their USD/oz chart is identical to the Kitco USD/oz chart. Gold priced in other currencies should therefore follow the normal convention of converting that currency into USD according to the current exchange rate, followed by a conversion of USD into gold at spot price.
But what I've noticed is that on days when there is a big fluctuation in the GBP/USD pair (e.g. of more than, say, half a cent) then something odd happens after 18:00 GMT. See if you can spot the difference in these two charts, which cover exactly the same time period (clue: look at the end of each of the blue lines):
As is obvious, there is a spike up (of around £7/$10) in the GBP chart at around 18:00 GMT which is not replicated on the USD chart. Now on that day (10 February), the GBP had weakened considerably against the USD, so the gain in gold priced in GBP is not unexpected. What is unexpected is that although the GBP weakened gradually throughout the day, this chart implies a sudden devaluation. However, a check of the USD/GBP chart for that day shows that no such sudden devaluation took place.
Further, one can check the GBP/gold chart for 10 February on any other website, and one will find that this spike is simply not there. It only appears on the GoldMoney charts.
The effect works in the other direction too. Check out these charts from yesterday, a day when the GBP strengthened significantly against the dollar:
Same effect, different direction. The downspike (of around £5/$8) on the GBP chart is not replicated on the USD chart. But the USD/GBP charts for yesterday show no corresponding sudden USD devaluation against the pound. The GBP strengthened against the USD throughout the day. And, as with the first example, the GBP/gold charts available elsewhere show no such downspike.
I have posted just two examples here, but please be assured that this happens every time that there is a substantial shift in the GBP/USD pair. Knowing this has actual predictive power: I knew yesterday that this was going to happen, and was ready and waiting to get the screen grab when it did.
Unfortunately, I have not worked out a useful way of profiting from this effect. Although a genuine arbitrage opportunity most definitely exists, knowing that this spike is coming is not much use unless the spike will be greater than the premiums for buying. In other words, had I sold my gold just before the downspike yesterday, and then bought it back immediately after the spike had finished, I would indeed have benefited from a £5 arbitrage (roughly 0.5%). But I also would have had to pay a 2 - 3% premium on my new purchase, which more than wipes out my hypothetical gain. I suppose a change in the USD/GBP pair of more than 3% in a day might make it worth one's while to capitalise on this, but such days are mercifully rare in the FOREX markets.
Anyway, I digress. This trait is germane to GoldMoney and GoldMoney alone. It is subtle, and not avowed (I can find no mention of it anywhere on the GoldMoney site). Now, GoldMoney presents its prices as following spot, but it is obvious that this is not always the case for purchases in GBP, and perhaps other currencies too.
The only possible conclusion is that GoldMoney is regularly carrying out its own little - and sometimes not so little - 'end of day' currency adjustment. Now that's a bit cheeky, especially as clients are not warned about this. Imagine you had just bought some gold priced in GBP at 19:59 GMT on 16 February, and then immediately lost £5 per ounce thanks to GoldMoney's idiosyncratic little currency adjustment. It would hardly seem fair, would it?
More to the point, it is difficult to describe this cheeky end-of-day currency adjustment which is (a) not avowed, and (b) not done by anyone else, as anything other than a form of price manipulation. The irony of this darling of the silverogosphere effectively manipulating its price on an end-of-day whim is not lost on me.
I should stress that I do not think for one minute that GoldMoney is doing anything illegal here. I just think it's curious that they are so hush-hush about it.
Food for thought.
Bankster Shills
The thing I love the most about this blog is that the contributors are a collection of very different individuals, with very diverse views. I think it's fair to say that we're all generally bullish on the PMs, and that we have declared positions in gold and silver, but apart from that our only unifying trait is that we love debate, getting to the heart of the matter, and seeking to dispel myths and shoddy thinking as often as we can. If we see something we disagree with, we probe and challenge - including our fellow contributors' views.
Unfortunately, this approach has done little to endear ourselves to certain quarters of the PM community. Although that's a shame, it's perhaps understandable given that we're often a bit cheeky and polemic (or just good old-fashioned devil's advocates). However, what is less understandable is how a brand new PM meme has started doing the rounds: i.e. that the Screwtape Files is a fully paid-up psyops front for bullion banks.
Unfortunately, this approach has done little to endear ourselves to certain quarters of the PM community. Although that's a shame, it's perhaps understandable given that we're often a bit cheeky and polemic (or just good old-fashioned devil's advocates). However, what is less understandable is how a brand new PM meme has started doing the rounds: i.e. that the Screwtape Files is a fully paid-up psyops front for bullion banks.
The abuse in some parts of the blogosphere has been predictably banal and depressing, spiked by Brian O'Flanagan's recent question about the relationship between ZeroHedge and Sprott's PSLV. Here are a few of my favourite recent comments about Screwtape, taken from a number of sites, including ours (the asterisks are my addition, for those of a nervous disposition):
Tyberious: Those little piss ant, SLV, GLD, c*ck suckers[...]What the f*ck! They shall have no quarter here![...]I know these guys a paid shills for JPM, or whatever banks' d*ck they suck! Look nothing against homos, but these guys are whores! For all those that are new, these guys (KID D*CKINMYASS [sic], and butt buddies) pray on the ignorant and pretend that all is well, like there is no manipulation in the PM markets, that SLV and GLD actually have the metal they report to have and they attempt to spread misinformation and worst of all they f*cking do it for money!
PaidInFiat: Jeanne, eat a d*ck. How's that for an explanation? [and, later] Jeanne darc, gobble a donkey d*ck, you elf.
Silver Stacker: I don't doubt what you say, but I don't believe it either. It equates to me stating that the contributors to this blog like to suck each others d*cks and blow loads in each others faces.
Bay of Pigs: They are useless tools on gold or silver, IMO. Better off to ignore them. They have deadpanning gold and silver and supporting the MSM status quo since I can remember. They don't acknowledge anything being wrong/corrupted in the markets (especially the COMEX).
Green Lantern: That must be where the trolls go after they have finished flaming Turd on the main blog. I guess they need a place to wet their whistle also. From simply a journalistic point of view, did you notice that his entire blog is dedicated to flaming individuals/sites and point of views and rarely puts forth his own world views?
Ledbedder: Looks like the boys and girls at the other blog are green with (fake gold) envy.They think because they write "articulately" that they can fool some folks. Go right ahead, try. I honestly do not know anyone that can make an argument against the PM's not going higher over the next few years. Yes, 2011 wasn't their best, but look at the 10 years before that. Guess a decade isn't enough data to go on. That was my roughly written 2 cents as I didn't get a degree from Brown or HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAvard. One last thing, look down your noses at us because we type swear words, who cares? Tell us you don't let out a good "F*CK" when you bang your shin on the coffee table. Liar.
SGS: Yeah. These morons, especially kid dynamite [sic] are part of a paid JP group to discredit us.
Anonymous: Screwtapefiles is just a front site run by the Bankers. Zero credibility there.
Anonymous: screwtape has zero credibility. The people authoring there have been exposed and countered many times before. It's a site of the banking shills, by the banking shills and for the gullible.
SGS: Dont come back here. You realize that I know who you are now. My tech seems shitty on the front end, no[t] so bad on the backend. You've been warned.
Lovely. What is very striking about such posts (and there are many more) is the level of visceral hatred for those who do not necessarily share their world view or - more importantly - the world view of their heroes. It is also hard not to pick up on a certain amount of deep-seated auto-erotic tension, which I imagine would be better released in a more amorous rather than aggressive way - but I'll leave that train of thought to the psychologists.
However, what is utterly conspicuous by its absence is any attempt to engage with the question at hand, to refute it through evidence, or to present a coherent counter-argument. Responses are limited to either "you're a c*ck sucker" or "you're a bankster shill".
Now that's a bizarre approach. Let's say for a moment (for the sake of argument) that they're right, and the only things we love in life are violent oral sex and getting fistfulls of dollars from JPM. How, exactly, does that refute the facts we have pointed out, or answered the questions we've posed? It's simply a diversionary tactic to avoid answering the difficult questions. So we are forced to ask: why would such diversionary tactics be used by certain elements of the PM blogosphere? If what they say is an open-and-shut case, why respond with abuse and allegations, rather than simply presenting their evidence and explaining their reasoning?
It is obvious to anyone who has ever read Screwtapes that we are not paid up Bankster Shills. We all give our time free to this site, despite us all having extremely busy day jobs and family lives. You will notice that there are no adverts on this site, and there is no donation button either. We make not one penny from this site by any means. We strive to hold the highest levels of integrity, and make full disclosures when necessary.
Sadly this cannot be said for other elements on the web. Some sites earn serious cash from their traffic, and others have direct links to those with a corporate interest in promoting precious metals. Not all sites - and I want to stress that. There are good guys out there. But suffice to say that the supposedly 'independent' content and advice peddled on certain PM sites is often as partisan and sponsored as that which emanates from certain parts of the MSM about which they scream foul on a daily basis. Corporate shills by any other name. I will expand on some of these themes in future posts.
Most of us are long the PMs, and most of us accept that there is a degree of manipulation in the PM markets. But we refuse to subscribe to the cartoon version of evil empires and wicked witches; a world of Zionist plots and farting bears. If a claim is made, such as Sprott's delivery problems or DSK's imprisonment at the hands of the Cartel, or a problematic gold bar in a vault, then we will investigate it. If we find it to be true, we say so. If we find it to be false, then we say that too.
This refusal to blindly accept all we're told, or to unthinkingly cheerlead the latest silver memes does not make us 'anti gold' or 'anti silver'. It does not make us 'perma bears'. And it certainly does not make us Bankster Shills. We value your comments, and we want you to challenge us (politely). If shown the evidence we will change our views on the spot.
We are beholden neither to the banks and Wall Street, nor to those with an interest in selling as many coins and bars as possible.
And it is that which makes us the most independent PM site on the web.
The mundane machinations of a mania: the story of Wynter Benton.
WARNING: This post is a work of FICTION.
The original intent of the story was to provide a plausible explanation for how the Wynter Benton legend was born. It is based largely on a text supplied to us by Trinity B (which she described to us as fiction herself) at the end of May 2011.
We decided not to publish it at the time, but – given recent interest in the themes expressed in Trinity’s work - we have now decided that it actually could serve as a useful insight into just how easy it is to craft plausible stories about the silver market. Of course, we also cannot rule out the possibility that Trinity ‘got lucky’ with some of her guesses, or that she knew more than she was letting on.
It has been edited by me and Warren. There is also an epilogue, not penned by Trinity B, but written in keeping with her style (we hope) to ‘round off’ the story.
Get a cup of coffee, and enjoy...
THE MUNDANE MACHINATIONS OF A MANIA
By Trinity B (June 2011)
This post describes no murders, no conspiracies, and no mention of the CIA, Bilderberg or a New World Order. It deals largely with the mundane reality of slightly dodgy web use to promote modern business. Please look away now if the lack of references to smoke-filled rooms, failed assassination attempts or George Soros may offend you.
Flushed with success following her appointment as President of a new precious metals dealer at the end of 2009, X and others in her organisation scouted around various Toronto-based ‘PR solutions’ companies looking for novel ways to make an impact that would benefit both her end of the family business and that of a soon-to-be-launched new silver ETF. The idea, common when starting new ventures, was to use ‘new’ media to support her family’s standard tactics of creating a buzz around a silver shortage. Rumours about JPM’s silver short positions and their use of SLV to suppress the price had circulated for years, but some of the hedgies were beginning to get pretty uptight about it, and a number of events had started to make such discussion more mainstream. X thought there might be some mileage in seeding this rumour in retail quarters, which was not a bad idea, as we now know.
Two ideas were proposed:
1. Message boarding: Wynter Benton’s first posts in March – July 2010 were tests/examples, to show how such a process might work. They weren’t serious posts, nor part of any particular project, and were not especially meant to be read by anyone. Blythe, never a popular figure in the banking world, was used as an example of how stories have more traction if things are personalised. This was rather a quirk of fate – half a dozen other names might equally have been used.
X gave permission to go ahead in order to see how the process might develop. She was not especially hopeful, but felt sufficiently convinced that it might create a bit of a buzz and a bit of extra interest in silver useful to her and her family’s plans for the year.
2. A Canada-based blogspot. Again, a few test posts were created around the same time (summer 2010). The final format, aims and tone of the site would be decided later. The website played around with a few articles and videos reposted from elsewhere, with no particular attempt to ‘add value’ by the ‘host’, gradually developing a focus on the JPM/silver shortage meme. But results were poor – traffic to the site was execrable and lagged far behind that of the WB posts.
At a rather frosty meeting in October, the PR company were told to either drop the blog project or pull something out of their behind. Further, X wanted ‘WB’ to become more convincing, more likely to appeal to grown up silver investors. The rather crass September/October posts by Wynter Benton, which had followed the summer test posts, had not impressed.
So, at the end of October, the PR solutions people assigned someone else to manage the project and X assigned time from an analyst to provide intelligent-sounding details to WB about the Comex, JPM, silver price, etc. We then started to see classical references ('Varro at Cannae'), more precise, technical –sounding information ('Based upon the COT and BPR, if silver hits $60, JPM will lose around an additional $6 billion dollars'), a back story developing (the 'interesting career moves'), and a more articulate writing style. Traces of previous authors had to be left in – notably the ‘body bag’ references – to provide continuity. The claims were magnified for exaggerated effect, and responses to the story were monitored, reposted and encouraged in various forums, along with the help of other ‘entities’ supporting the claims and creating ‘buzz’.
On a roll, the PR solutions people reached a climax of creativity and on 3 December (2010) the blog did something new. Suddenly, the reposted articles (sans commentaire) were replaced by something that would quickly go viral in the silver community. Pushed by ZH and available to all who typed ‘Silver, JPM’ into YouTube, a new audience was rapidly created.
X was (understandably) delighted by the success. A whole new tranche of retail buyers had been drawn in. Even some of the hedgies began to pay attention to some of the crap that was being spooled out on the net – not necessarily because they genuinely believed any of it, but because they knew when to buy a good rumour. Price increases ‘predicted’ by Wynter Benton and others suddenly became a self-fulfilling prophecy. Already in a bullish phase, silver demand started to fuel more demand. Traffic to websites spiked. Blog posts that might have got only a dozen comments before Christmas were now getting a thousand. Posters talked about using credit cards to buy silver at $47, all spurred on by talking bears and a multitude of websites spinning a good yarn about skulduggery at the Comex.
But unfortunately for retail, the cartoon bears forgot to tell anybody what hedge funds always do after they have bought the rumour...
EPILOGUE
By The Screwtape Files (January 2012)
In order to wrap the project gracefully, ‘Wynter Benton’ had left a last communiqué to let them know that hell or high water, they would ‘stand for delivery at the Comex’. With no remaining obligations to the community, Wynter Benton retired, the project finished. Ownership of the blog was gifted to an associate who wished to maintain the brand for the purposes of ad revenue. The May crash followed.
Months passed. Most staff by this point had moved up or moved on, but after the waterfall there were some who smelled an opportunity for a second round. Unknown to X, two members of the original team took the story to a large trading firm, then quickly defected from the design company taking with them the login details for the wynter_benton alias. The new crew wasted no time in re-pumping the Wynter Benton story – the claims were bigger and grander, taking advantage of offering new hope to demoralized silver investors.
The new trading group also had a plan – they would use client funds to purchase futures and be long or short at critical times. Everything was going great, but without the guidance of the senior advertisers and copywriters the story started to wobble in the hands of the less experienced crew. It was also difficult to work separately from the Canada blog. Price calls were suffering because the silver market was not as robust as at the start of the year. Hope was placed on QEIII or a Greek default to make the calls come good. To make things even worse, silver suddenly crashed down through the much-vaunted $36 mark – exposing their fraudulent claims they would ‘defend’ that price point or ‘bust the Comex’.
Once again the two hapless individuals were called to task by their furious new partners – massive losses were made when suddenly silver plunged, and the original ‘purchase’ of the Benton Story had become a very sad investment. In desperation, the junior marketers decided to rescue the story by putting all their chips into a final price call – ‘$45/oz by the end of November’. No caveats, no excuses – words used by the management team who needed to make good their losses or be exposed.
The trading firm filed for bankruptcy at the end of October – the 8th biggest in US history.
IMPORTANT: This entire piece is a work of creative fiction, based on the Wynter Benton story as it unfolded throughout 2011. It should not be reproduced without permission from the Screwtape Files, and any approved reproductions must carry this caveat.
The London Trader
Eric "Leading the Witness" King's listeners globally are, no doubt, familiar with "The London Trader," who my sources assure me is not Mr. King's imaginary friend, despite the fact that his interviews are never released in audio form. Rather, he is a mysterious gentleman with a knack for popping up whenever the flagging enthusiasms of PM investors are badly in need of rekindling.
So today, almost on cue, hard upon gold's slicing through its 200-day moving average like a hot knife through butter, provoking ceaseless chatter of the "death of a bull" (and just days before Christmas!) ... he has come.
"We are making a historic bottom right now ... this recent plunge was orchestrated with borrowed gold, and that borrowed gold is now gone."
"Interestingly, so many people are bearish on gold right now and looking for a collapse in the price of gold. They don’t understand what is happening in the physical market"
"[There will be] a huge, tectonic shift in price dynamics going forward, because [direct buyers are now] taking price discovery away from the bullion banks ... Every single month producers have a certain amount of gold and silver they sell. Normally they sell it to the bullion banks and the bullion banks, of course, leverage this gold and sell up to 100 times that in paper markets to control prices ... "
“The [silver] game is getting so stretched that it’s going to break ... The only way they have been able to keep silver depressed is by borrowing silver from SLV to meet immediate demand ... There isn’t enough silver for investors to buy (in large amounts), so ... SLV is over 20 million ounces short on the silver they are supposed to have in the vaults."
"Part of managing the price of silver recently has been for the central banks to attack the gold market ... [Their agents, the bullion banks] short-sell just enough tranches of COMEX contracts to surgically take out important support pivots ... turning the momentum buyers into sellers."
So, what to make of this guy, who purports to have his finger on the pulse of the Asian investor? (A constant motif of his is how Asian investors are eager to "suck up" the gold being thrown away by the desperate Western banks.) What's his track record?
He first emerged onto the scene on January 14, 2011, right after the metals had crashed from their New Years highs, saying: "The physical silver market is still extraordinarily tight here. Somewhere around the $28 area there should be a firm base as there is tremendous physical demand in that zone.”
Well, it wasn't the most auspicious start, for silver fell another $2 in the next week. But, undaunted, he made a reappearance soon thereafter, on January 26, redeeming himself by essentially calling the bottom of the correction to the day:
"Physical demand is incredibly robust from the eastern hemisphere creating a floor on the downside preventing a further breakdown. There are certain banking interests which have been making an effort to keep a lid on prices of gold and silver ... [but] big money is lining up to buy into any attempts to flush the price lower."
Also noteworthy, in keeping with his regular theme of deriding traders clueless about physical markets, he had this to say:
"Many of these hedge funds are run by kids who are only out of university for three years now and are literally just chasing a dot up and down a screen. They don’t look at what is happening with inventory levels at the Comex or what’s happening with SLV where real metal is being pulled out of that ETF"
After this formidable call, he went into hiding for over three months, as gold and especially silver rose parabolically, and PM bugs had no need for his services. But a few weeks after the May crash, out of the ethernet he emerged. He had this to say on May 16:
"[On account of Asian buying], gold is not going to go down much further at this point, so you should not see an awful lot more damage to silver."
And once again he was right. The very next day, silver began a steep ascent from the low thirties to ~$38 an ounce the last week of May. Next, we heard from him on July 18. When many of us were expecting the seasonal summer doldrums, he claimed that there was "major potential for short covering." He continued:
"If we get a pit close today in the US above either $1,600 gold or $40 silver, then you are going to see some huge capitulation by the shorts."
In this he was not quite accurate, as gold and silver finished right at his specified levels, yet still fell steeply the next day. Nonetheless, after 3 trading days, gold began the first leg of its ascent to $1900, pausing at $1650, when he made a reappearance (August 4):
"If gold closes above $1,680 we will also see some capitulation on the part of the shorts in silver as well, which will cause a huge pop because there will be an air pocket these guys are trying to cover into ... Remember, $1,680 is the key here."
Two days later, gold gapped up to $1680, and exploded into the $1700s, indeed because of massive short covering. He did not miss his chance to gloat; his victory lap on August 10 was titled: "Many Gold Shorts Wiped Out, Lost Everything!"
"These guys in London woke up with their asses handed to them and I don’t think some of these guys will ever be short again, if they are still in business."
Then, he added, correctly: "I believe there is still enough momentum to push gold into the $1,800’s."
and
“I fully expect to have $2 moves in silver and $50 moves in gold as absolutely normal at this point. If you don’t expect that, you are not going to understand what is going on."
Like Wynter Benton before him, perhaps he should have quit with a near perfect record. For, his piece on September 20, positing a "massive physical floor under the gold market" was a cataclysmic bust:
"There are massive orders between $1,715 and $1,760. This has the effect of putting a physical floor under the price of gold. If they make a push to the $1,715 level that would be suicide in my opinion. There are simply too many massive orders for physical gold down to that level for that to be breached."
Gold of course fell (briefly) to $1535 within days.
"As far as silver goes, it is possible there could be a spike to $37 or $38 in thin access trading, but the bottom line is that serious physical buying will be taking place anywhere below $40"
Here, too, he was dead wrong, although the attack did take place in "thin access trading."
Unlike Wynter Benton, however, the London Trader did not then disappear with his tail between his legs, never to be heard from again. No, he was back less than two weeks later, not to acknowledge his terrible call, but for more bullish prognostication -- though he did offer an explanation:
"The [hedge funds I spoke to] were not happy about [selling] their only good performing asset they had, in order to offset the losses on their common stocks. This was done for the purpose of end of the quarter window dressing. The indication was that they wanted to get back in as soon as possible"
"Western central banks got together, leased out some gold, and the bullion banks sold the gold. The central bank gold being unloaded by the bullion banks was not to get the best price, but to smash the price. The smartest way to sell the gold would be to do it in the liquid sessions. But the pattern during the decline was they were selling it in the overnight session when things are quiet. This was no different that what we saw at the end of April, beginning of May on that coordinated smash."
He concluded with a typical bullish evaluation of the battlefield:
"As it stands today, there are an unbelievable amount of physical orders that have not been filled. When gold was briefly down at $1,530, almost no one got any physical gold. No one was even getting fills."
But (perhaps chastened), he offered no specific price targets. Still, the metals began a slight rise that day, and in keeping with his measured optimism, sunk no lower over the next few weeks.
Then, with 2 posts on October 21, he hit another home run. That very day, when bearishness was all around, gold began a dramatic rise from the low $1600s back to $1800. Some excerpts:
"What we are seeing now is this consolidation pattern where the commercials are getting out of their short positions whenever possible. All the while they are squeezing fresh shorts. They take the metals down, make the charts look bearish to bring in fresh shorts, and later they squeeze them out of their positions on a rally and pocket the money"
"The Chinese bought a massive amount of physical today at the lows and that is why the market turned where it did ... Having said that, most of the physical orders are sitting ... between $1,585 and $1,605. We are talking about massive tonnage.” [Note that level has not yet been breached to the downside]
On silver, he continued with a favorite theme:
"The price of silver has no reality to the paper market at all, absolutely zero reality there anymore. There is extraordinarily tight supply right now in Asia. When you order silver there is so little available at these prices, that’s the trouble. Chances are you are not going to get quantity at this price."
My verdict on The London Trader is that he definitely deserves to be taken seriously, though of course skeptically. Look at the gold/silver charts below, with vertical lines marking the days of his bullish (and often contrarian) posts, and decide for yourselves.
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