Trinity B, RIP


“Trinity B” has become rather infamous of late, posting prescient calls on a number of websites, whilst talking down some rather sacred cows in the PM community such as hyperinflation, silver shortages, and so on. She was discussed in the same breath as WB (may peace be upon her) by some, and flamed as a troll by others.


Earlier this week, Louis said we would publish some articles regarding the wisdom of taking investment advice from anonymous sources. What is the motivation of every person posting a story, opinion, stock tip, etc., etc.? Our stated goals at the Screwtape Files are to examine all the available evidence, assess it, and draw rational conclusions based on it. “Trinity B” was articulate, semi-plausible, and seemingly keen to promote a message. Most importantly, she was gathering attention in the PM community. We made contact, and we probed. We even managed to persuade Trinity to write a test article for publication so that we could assess the merits of her story.


This article, which we have decided not to share for various reasons of legality and personal confidence, essentially sought to explain the origins of WB and certain other silver price optimists. It was well written, credible, and compelling. It was also pure invention, as Trinity has herself now admitted to us. As Louis and other astute commentators here suspected, her calls were lucky guesses, based on charts. Trinity herself decided to stop the process before it became too serious. She wrote a sincere and heartfelt apology to us and – too embarrassed to post herself – has asked us to convey her regrets to her followers. She will not be posting again, nor replying to anyone who talks about her on blogs.


So, another myth is dispelled. We live in an age when blogs are a (non-silver) dime a dozen, and commentators are even more so. Is it right to listen to all points of view? Yes. Is it right to consider the possibility that insiders might want to leak information? Absolutely. But the more a point of view confirms our own ideas and hopes, the more strictly should we engage our skepticism.

28 comments:

Warren James said...

Robert Leroy Parker & AGoldHamster - your reactions are vindicated. Good work for seeing it when I didn't. Feel free to flame me (originally a believer) ... I'm going to consign myself to database work from now on and not try to identify mysterious silver industry insiders.

Last night downloaded all the GoldMoney serial bars - they have quarterly records going back to 2001, which is cool. We are also going to add a data feed from BullionVault as well.

Warren James said...

And in case there are any jokers out there trying to perpetuate the 'Trinity B' myth, disproving any future 'appearances' is easy - the original had a signature of 'http://www.blogger.com/profile/03122905805151077723'. According to what was written (to us), this profile will never appear again.

Checking the Blogger signature is one our standard forensic techniques when investigating claims (we used it when we were trying to suss out benton).

By the way - just on benton (for which I was also bullish, now less so as I see what is going on out there) ... we have never actually been able to conclusively prove that the Benton stories were false. We would love to also prove (true or false) for sure. But you can bet now that we're sharpening our knives after this experience.

Jeanne d'Arc said...

Today we've debunked the EU Times and Trinity B - not bad for a day's work.

So, re Benton: all in good time, Warren, all in good time...

Yukon Cornelius said...

"...her calls were lucky guesses, based on charts."

That's too bad. In the end guessing is all anyone is really doing in the markets anyway. I'm not really sure there's anything really worth apologizing for. Did Trinity B ever truly say she/they were Wynter Benton? Maybe I missed it. Oh well.

At least she didn't have a daily newsletter that makes things up like, "We are hearing of massive shortages of silver and maybe this is one reason that no silver is leaving the SLV because there is no physical silver only paper silver".

Louis Cypher said...

Now who would say such a thing?
So who are we going to debunk tomorrow? Santa? Baby Jesus? NIA?

flaunt said...

Wow that's pretty lame of "Trinity." I wonder, is it really even a "she?" Seems more like something a dude would do.

SilverAura said...

flaunt,
of course it's a "he" - the majority of trolls are "male" and those using "female" avatars/"voices" do it to get the boy's attention (among other things ^^)- even to using a name from a stripper (WB), which is like a red flag to a dude-bull, no?

it's the internet, everybody is a G.I.R.L. - a "guy in real life" - the real females are fairly easy to spot tho'

hehehh

/SleepingVillage/ said...

Was Trinity a female? I don't know, the team made contact and probed, you'd think there'd be some kind of evidence;)Depends on the probing.

Trin got cold feet? Funny. Guess I was wrong...

How 'bout that Evil dude from TF's? Ben Bernanke? Blythe? They probably wont post here, you guys are too damn good at tracking people.

Good stuff, team, I always enjoy your thoughts here at Screwtape Files.

victorthecleaner said...

My apology for an unrelated question - I am just trying to make sure you find it:

Warren, do you have enough data in order to compute the average flow of silver into and out of SLV? The idea would be as follows: You look at the SLV holdings every day. If they increase, you count a positive inflow. If they decrese, you count a positive outflow. What is the average inflow and the average outflow per day?

This calculation would not detect if there is both an inflow and an outflow on the same day, but it would still give you lower bounds on both flows.

With bar numbers, you could do even better.

Victor

Warren James said...

Hi Victor,

In essence yes ... but there are a few factors.

1. The SLV bar list is only published once a week (sometimes twice as they make last minute adjustments - we caught it once).

2. I understand there are some daily totals available but because these are not serial-number related we haven't logged this data yet.

Can you check out the excellent (weekly) analysis at http://about.ag/slv and see if that is any help to your question.

Seems like the 'Inflow' and 'Outflow' terminology ought to be replaced with 'Allocation'. Actually possibly I'm already trying to figure it out, but needs to be termed differently ... something like 'what governs the rate of allocation, and which bars are most likely to have their ownership transferred'. i.e. is it something like 'okay, take pallet number 6 because it's closer to the front of the vault'. The high-velocity bars compared with the low-velocity bars (which enter and never move) might yield some info. It's hard work - like looking for a needle in a haystack. The more data we add, the better the resolution will be.

Feel free to ask more questions and with more detail as I might be able to provide a better answer. I rely mostly on intuition to guide me, and straight mathematical challenges actually scare me silly.

If you are good at slicing numbers I can also send you a spreadsheet export of data chunks if it helps. Just let me know.

johnboatcat said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Louis Cypher said...

I deleted the last two comments as they were getting personal. Although there were parts of both posts that contained useful info or observations it's easier to hit delete than edit.
Guys, you are both more than welcome to post but please leave the emotions at the door.
Thanks Lou.

Louis Cypher said...

Lots of Ur,
No conspiracy. Trinity was trying to get a valid message across but was going about it the wrong way.

Yukon Cornelius said...

Hammy can get spun up sometimes, but he's always worth listening to. Hammy, I'd like to see whatever you wrote. Take a few breaths and post it again - sans whatever got your post nuked.

johnboatcat said...

What I posted was not emotions or did I mean for it to be aimed in an inflammatory way at the person involved. I just stated what he said in a his own post to correct another's statement.

"AGoldhamster said...

Trinity B - let's keep to facts:

I haven't lost money - and I haven't posted that. Instead I didn't close the trades where I would have closed them according to TA.
In hindsight - clearly my error.

This was the exact wording:
"I would have sold in the high 38.8x or so.
Definitely.
I held due to his previous calls."

Sorry if that offended anyone. It was not meant too.

Louis Cypher said...

John,
I was cutting a flame war off at the pass. In retrospect I might have been jumping the gun in your case.
Hammy,
Again you are welcome to post here if you tone down the aggression.

Louis Cypher said...

Lots of Ur,
So where do you think we are going in the short term (1 month) Mid term (3 month).
You seem to be in the no QE3 camp. Are you saying that because you think it's fiscally irresponsible and you think our leaders will do the right thing?
What is your big picture view?

johnboatcat said...

Thanks Louis! My real post question was to ask if you could post the TB letter as a work of fiction for entertainment purposes. The author and publisher (you) agree it is fiction, so no legal problems I wouldn't think. I would find it an entertaining read after following the TB saga. Others might as well.

Louis Cypher said...

John,
We have been mulling it over but the consensus is it's a little insulting to certain parties. We could publish it as a work of fiction. "Does not represent the views of.... blah, blah..."
The main fear was some cut and paste monkey would publish it as fact.
Even smart people are taken in by hoaxes.
Do a quick search for Bob Chapman on this site and you will see what I mean.
Do a quick search on Harvey Organ's site for Bob Chapman and Wynter Benton.

Lot of Ur said...

Silver did not act due to the evil empire.
Instead have a look at this chart and the content of the next comment.

Lot of Ur said...

1) Look at the monthlies of all important markets (indexes, commodities, currencies, treasuries, ...) and enlighten yourself about what are the current trends - up or down?

2) Pull up an 8h Silver chart and draw the trendline connecting April 12 with May 11 and May 26. See chart in previous comment.

4) Checkout all recent NFP announcements and what happens a few days before with PMs.

5) Checkout yesterdays European session and look what happened to again all other important markets in the process of the day.

Connecting the dots - it was quite predictable.

Kid Dynamite said...

@VictortheCleaner - SLV's website has a detailed spreadsheet with daily creation/redemption (ie: inflow/outflow) data going back to inception. it's under "historical data" on the left sidebar here:

http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/SLV.htm

Jeanne d'Arc said...

Louis,

I have something wonderful nearly ready to go on that very subject. I'll send you an email.

JdA

Economic Analyst said...

That's the thing..NOBODY knows NOTHING. No matter what "they"say or what "they" THINK will happen..it's all a guess. Nobody knows a bloody thing.

Warren James said...

@ Economic Analyst - agree with your sentiment .. with two exceptions: insiders privy to any market-moving events/news, and organisations/funds/teams/individuals who pump information to move markets in a desired direction.

And both of those groups 'ain't telling'.

victorthecleaner said...

Kid Dynamite,

thanks - that was easy. The spreadsheet contains the number of ounces in the trust for each trading day, and so I can calculate what I was asking for.

Victor

Economic Analyst said...

@Warren James the only insiders are Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and the gov't. That puts the majority of us as "the nobody's".

Bron said...

Your Trinity post showed up in my RSS reader then you pulled it. True or false, it is a good playbook, maybe I'll speak to our social media people about it (joking).

Victor - if you are looking for a correlation between SLV's creation and redemptions and the silver price you probably won't find it as makes economic sense for market makers to hold stock of SLV they are buying back during net selling phases if they expect net buying to return in the near future.