“Trinity B” has become rather infamous of late, posting prescient calls on a number of websites, whilst talking down some rather sacred cows in the PM community such as hyperinflation, silver shortages, and so on. She was discussed in the same breath as WB (may peace be upon her) by some, and flamed as a troll by others.
Earlier this week, Louis said we would publish some articles regarding the wisdom of taking investment advice from anonymous sources. What is the motivation of every person posting a story, opinion, stock tip, etc., etc.? Our stated goals at the Screwtape Files are to examine all the available evidence, assess it, and draw rational conclusions based on it. “Trinity B” was articulate, semi-plausible, and seemingly keen to promote a message. Most importantly, she was gathering attention in the PM community. We made contact, and we probed. We even managed to persuade Trinity to write a test article for publication so that we could assess the merits of her story.
This article, which we have decided not to share for various reasons of legality and personal confidence, essentially sought to explain the origins of WB and certain other silver price optimists. It was well written, credible, and compelling. It was also pure invention, as Trinity has herself now admitted to us. As Louis and other astute commentators here suspected, her calls were lucky guesses, based on charts. Trinity herself decided to stop the process before it became too serious. She wrote a sincere and heartfelt apology to us and – too embarrassed to post herself – has asked us to convey her regrets to her followers. She will not be posting again, nor replying to anyone who talks about her on blogs.
So, another myth is dispelled. We live in an age when blogs are a (non-silver) dime a dozen, and commentators are even more so. Is it right to listen to all points of view? Yes. Is it right to consider the possibility that insiders might want to leak information? Absolutely. But the more a point of view confirms our own ideas and hopes, the more strictly should we engage our skepticism.