Not a happy time for gold and silver bugs, sadly. Here's some mood music to set the tone . . .
And what will surely upset gold and silver bugs even more is that my long absence from regular posting must needs continue for a while longer, but I see we still get a large number of loyal visitors daily, a few of them not bots, so with September in the books, I felt it incumbent upon me at very least to update some of my regular charts. Once again, the reversals on the two weekly three-line break charts below (with the first, as usual, being the leading indicator) have signaled the recent bear cycles in gold and silver.
My 2014 prediction that the GOLD/S&P500 ratio would hit the yellow line has come to fruition.
My conviction that we won't see the low in gold until the "treasuries in silver" chart hits the green flanging wedge is also looking likely now, a year and a half later, with, unfortunately, still a ways to go:
Posted by GM Jenkins on Friday, October 03, 2014
[thoughts] On Predicting when Bullion will Return to GLD (FAILED PREDICTION) PLUS a new permanent spreadsheet resource
predicted the return of some specific GLD bars, and I'm sorry to say they haven't yet returned and statistically there is now less than a 5% chance that they will. So that is a FAIL; my method for detection of unusual GLD withdrawals did not create an accurate prediction. I'm disappointed and it's back to researching that area. I will of course update this article if I ever see them back on the ledger, but because it's outside the three to four month range expected, I'm admitting defeat.
As many have noticed, I'm still on an extended break.
At present, I'm not at liberty to reveal exactly what it is I've undertaken, but suffice it to say, I've found that the older I get, the less and less I worry about dying young.
Still I've found the time for a quick end-of-month chart dump. The most important chart is this one -- gold has fallen below its 20-30 week moving average ribbon. Buyers beware. Even though a move to $1350-60 may still be in the cards (based on some charts below the fold), that should be it -- so, risk is greater than reward here...
Posted by GM Jenkins on Sunday, August 03, 2014