[thoughts] On Predicting when Bullion will Return to GLD (FAILED PREDICTION) PLUS a new permanent spreadsheet resource

A number of months ago I predicted the return of some specific GLD bars, and I'm sorry to say they haven't yet returned and statistically there is now less than a 5% chance that they will. So that is a FAIL; my method for detection of unusual GLD withdrawals did not create an accurate prediction. I'm disappointed and it's back to researching that area. I will of course update this article if I ever see them back on the ledger, but because it's outside the three to four month range expected, I'm admitting defeat.

Sunday PM pre-game, 8/31/2014

Greetings friends-

Another month is in the books, and it very much looks like gold's year-long trading range is approaching its long-awaited denouement. The key chart is above ...

Sunday PM pre-game, 8/3/2014

 Hello friends -
As many have noticed, I'm still on an extended break.

At present, I'm not at liberty to reveal exactly what it is I've undertaken, but suffice it to say, I've found that the older I get, the less and less I worry about dying young.

Still I've found the time for a quick end-of-month chart dump. The most important chart is this one -- gold has fallen below its 20-30 week moving average ribbon. Buyers beware. Even though a move to $1350-60 may still be in the cards (based on some charts below the fold), that should be it -- so, risk is greater than reward here...

GLD Trade Spreadsheet vs GLD Bar List (Updated)

a quick question:

"Are there any significant discrepancies between the numbers in the GLD trade settlement spreadsheet and the GLD bar list?"

Thursday update 7/3/2014

Happy 4th of July to all of our dedicated readers in banker-occupied America.

Just one chart for you. With my first target ($1335) from last week's post hit, I decided to sell. Frankly, this is a tough market to trade right now. A lot of conflicting signals from my charts. I'm still bullish, but the metals are so overbought presently, that I'm going to watch from the sidelines.