Friday metals wrap, 6/27/2014

Quick update -

I'm bullish, but the two gold price points I mentioned in my last post, which I'd like to see cleared before opening a substantial long position, continue to serve as stubborn resistance: namely the monthly downtrend line above (blue), and the 300-day MA below (black)

I'd still bet on $1390 (and at least $1335) for gold and $22 for silver before this rally is over, based on charts below the fold. A move down to $1290 in gold would be a good entry point too, IMO.

Friday Metals Wrap 6/20/2014

Greetings friends!

Sorry for my inactivity of late -- to give you an idea of how busy I've been, I thought today was Friday and printed out a bunch of weekly charts for you. So hopefully nothing too crazy will happen tomorrow after today's fireworks, to render these obsolete.

I've also been too busy to trade. And as luck would have it ... I missed a few obvious long opportunities based on my own damn charts. Hopefully I helped someone make money this week??

E.g. last Friday, turns out there was a reversal on the 3-line break chart I beat to death every week, as a proxy for when an intermediate term bull cycle begins. Another bar has been added since, and should remain there tomorrow to close the week.

I hope I've made some believers in these charts. Note how my silver proxy chart below (GLD:GDXJ) never confirmed the bearish reversal of the gold proxy chart above (DOW:GDXJ). I had mentioned I wouldn't go short until it did so. And in fact now it's very close to adding a new red (silver-bullish) bar.  
Then, there was my previous post, ("Important chart") ... Sure enough, silver broke through that important trend line days ago (as I now note commenter Fix the System tried to apprise me of, to no avail. Thanks though!). Luckily, someone did make money by means of this chart. Our good friend "David P. out of Europe", who posted it on King World News on Tuesday

You just can't keep a good meme down

Zerohedge ran the following article:
"One ton Gold Shipment Into Hong Kong Revealed to contain Just Worthless Metal"

The author linked a few pics of gold covered Tungsten bars ignoring the facts of the case and giving the impression, if you skimmed the article, that it was another "Salty tale" of Tungsten wrapped in a little gold.

Reading the ZH comments would indicate that some (/most?) people read it as a "Salty tale" but the reality was also in the article for those who actually read it.
 "On Wednesday, Zhao Jingjun, 43, opened part of his shipment in front of his buyer in Hong Kong and discovered the gold had been switched for worthless metal." There was no mention of salted bars. 
27,000 reads on ZH, retwitted, reflogged and linked "About 7,780" times.

A picture, as they say, is worth a thousand words.

Here is a pic:


Important chart

I didn't do an end of month TA post, not least because I didn't want to distract our readers globally from the fine discussions going on in the posts below, but there's one monthly chart that stands out ... silver. As badly as the price of silver has looked, it needs only to hit $19.50 this month to clear the long downwards trend line that goes back all the way to the $50 peak three years ago. That line (green, dotted) has since been a rally stopper nine different months.

In fact, the $18.90 level where silver now stands would be enough to break that trend line next month. So, more evidence that a big move is coming in silver (and by extension gold) pretty soon. I'm still guessing that it will be in the downwards direction, based on my target below the fold.