SLV Database 4

Thanks again for everyone’s positive comments on my research. This article is installment number 4 in a series and builds on earlier work.  I’ve also written another static snapshot to describe more about the data processing, for anyone interested (a separate write-up, here).

Let’s get straight to the point. The conclusion from my current round of database analysis is that some silver bars currently held in the GoldMoney and BullionVault funds, used to exist in SLV, the percentages are approximately 1 % and 7.8 % (of their LONDON holdings) respectively. As with SLV Database 3, we're calling these signature matches 'Vault Jumpers' because they appear to move between the funds. The hard data is in spread sheet format, with the detailed analysis described in a separate sub-article, here. For a discussion of how the conclusion was reached, and some of the implications, please read on ...

Chart dump 9/23

Hello friends, just landed in Grindelwald. I'm somehow getting reception on my iPad, so I have a minute to share some charts with you:

A study of PM investors' psychology, in one easy chart

One of the (very few) criticisms made about me on the silverogosphere is that I can be a little wordy at times.

So, without further ado, here is a study of PM investors' psychology in one easy chart, and one easy YouTube clip.

Thank you.

Fun with Fibs

The silverogosphere is in an orgy of self-congratulation following the Chairman of the Federal Reserve's commitment on Thursday to provide $40 billion per month in monetary stimulus (a.k.a QE3) to buy mortgage debt.

In some respects, the cheerleaders merit their day in the sun. I was certainly personally surprised that more QE was actually announced prior to the presidential election, and utterly flabbergasted that Mr Benanke went so far as to essentially commit to stimulus without an end date. Although any sane observer [amongst whom I hope to be able to count myself, although years of being force-fed crystal meth by GM's harem of harpies has somewhat weakened an already tentative grasp on reality - Ed.] has appreciated for some time that the fiscal debt can only be solved practically through one of three broad policies (dollar devaluation; default; mass confiscation from citizens), it still came as something as a surprise to me that the Fed would be so explicit about their choice of option 1, and then be so aggressive about their mode of implementation.

The meme of "QE to infinity" seems apposite, although it's certainly not a done deal. Regardless, whether gold and silver are the best ways to profit from the Fed's decision or not is another matter entirely: a debate perhaps better left for another day. But let's just say that, although I was pleased with the rise in the d'Arc's gold investments, I was disappointed not to have invested more than I had in the resource companies of Kazakhmys (LON:KAZ) and Vedanta (LON:VED), which have both moved by 10% since Bernanke's announcement - compared with gold's 3.5% and silver's 6%  (meaning that Monsieur d'Arc will be getting an especially nice Christmas present this year).

Regardless, the exam question for this post concerns whether or not it is a good idea to immediately throw one's life savings into PMs, resource (and other) stocks, etc. Perhaps the 'Bernanke bounce' was overdone, and Monday/Tuesday will see a sharp retracement. Or perhaps we are now at the start of a serious bull market in stocks that will eclipse the dotcom bubble, and it's best to get on board as quickly as possible.

SLV Database 3

Many articles were drafted but never published since my last SLV Database 2 article; you can blame Jeanne d’Arc for that – she raised the quality bar so high I would need a wordsmith like John Birmingham to complete the trilogy. But first I want to thank everyone who reads Screwtape Files and contributes ideas and feedback to our ongoing discussion of the silver market; I have a backlog of interesting comparisons which can be generated against the data and I hope to get to each of these in turn.

My analysis from last year seems somewhat primitive – silver bars which swim in and out of the SLV ledger is no longer in question. For today’s article I present proof of what I’m calling ‘Fund Vault Jumpers’, bars which used to be in SLV which are now held in a different fund– specifically, in Australia as part of the Perth Mint Pool Allocated Silver. The proof can be found in this spread sheet, and the detailed explanation of the spread sheet data has been written up as a separate side article. My study shows that 975 silver bars currently residing in the Perth Mint vaults, used to be held in SLV – i.e. nearly 1 million ounces, being approximately 23% of total holdings for the Perth Mint Pool (PMP).

Hard data is perhaps less interesting than the implications of the conclusion and the story behind getting that data. I have known for some time (from visual checks) that bars from SLV had travelled across to Perth; the real challenge was to be able to package that information to be traceable. But the computing component is straight-forward, the tricky part is formulating the framework of questions to interrogate the data. If you're interested in the background, read on ...

RSI - Really Stupid Investors..?

Yep, after a month cycling in the Pyrenees, plodding through Sartre's finest works, and smoking Gitanes like they're going out of fashion, JdA is back at her desk, and is rather agog at the sudden outbreak of morale in the silverogosphere.

Indeed, thanks to some decent rises in the price of silver and gold during August and early September, we're all suddenly being advised to jump back in, with a range of erstwhile blog hosts queuing up to tell us that the 'doldrums' are over, and that the bullion banks have 'lost control'.

Silver in particular has had an impressive rally, moving from around $26.50 to $32.72 today. That's a whopping 19%. Well done to all who bought in at the bottom, and who are scaling out at the moment.

And a big wooden spoon to those doing their usual trick of beseeching their readers to buy as much as they can now that the rally is nearly at an end. You think I'm exaggerating? Read on...

Got any Leased Bars?

Recently my database work hit a critical threshold and I'm working through how to present these results as well as re-checking the underlying data. I wasn't ready for the volume of data and it's only been recently that I've gotten a handle on it. The silver database records currently have over 104 millions rows (and 27 million for gold) - most of that is repeated information but it is a lot of data points to manage and index.