Sunday pre-game 7/29/2012

 Hello friends - I have a lot of charts, but hopefully they speak for themselves, because I have little time for analysis. Consider this a teaser: our subscribers can feel free to ask questions in comments, and I'll be happy to give them the real inside scoop of where prices will be by the end of the summer (and those of you who haven't subscribed, I'm running a promotion - only $1355817 of useless fiat/ electric blips a year).

For you cheapskates, my take home is that there's too much unwarranted bullishness in the PM-o'-sphere. *This* week will very likely be the one to confirm whether the bullishness is justified.

File under not good.

Interesting article here on Miners and Financing. Bottom line is it really sucks to be a miner right now looking for money.
"High-yield debt is also creeping back into the system, though it is only an option for existing metal producers. In April, New Gold Inc. raised US$300-million in a 7% senior notes offering that has traded well ever since. It was the most notable gold financing of the year and has drawn a lot of attention. Both HudBay Minerals Inc. and Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp. also announced debt deals, but they were called off when market conditions deteriorated and the companies could not get the terms they expected."

If this keeps up then we will see the miners hedging again, consolidations where there are cash rich junior targets and a lot of companies folding because their CEO's suck. File under not good.

Some interesting stuff from the inter tubes

Larry sent me a few interesting links last night.

The Value of Gold Explained
In Part I, Ronald Stoeferle covers all the fundamentals of gold in the world economy, and in particular why 'value' is accorded to gold under varying circumstances.

In Part II, Stoeferle goes on to address a number of contentious contemporary gold issues.

Thanks to Gene Arensberg's Got Gold Report (which in turn thanks GATA's Chris Powell) forcalling attention to these lengthy Lars Schall interviews with Ronald Stoeferle.  Part I originally appeared on Gold Switzerland on July 11, and Part II on 24 July, 2012.
Toby Connor shares some nice chart porn here and it looks pretty damn sexy if you own some Gold or are planning to buy some soon.
An old idea has resurfaced and has the potential to put South Africa back on top as the worlds top Gold producer. That statement of course assumes that they have adequate supply of electricity etc. and a hands off approach from the South African govt. The problem with South African mines is they are so deep and a lot of Gold is left behind in the support columns etc.

Weekly Metals Post Game Show, 7/20

It's becoming common knowledge that the US Government borrows 40% of what it spends, and that the percentage is increasing (hey, freedom isn't free, punk). It should also be common knowledge, though I'm afraid it's not, that the law of gravity is far more likely to discontinue than the increasing burden of government expenditures fall (at least until the whole shithouse goes up in flames), and that this is true whether the economy "recovers" to some extent or not. So anyone trying to predict the zombie apocalypse needs to be aware of how much it costs the government to borrow. That's why I always have my eye on the ratio of the 10-year yield to hard assets. In the big picture, the yield itself doesn't really reflect the cost to borrow -- unless you assume the dollar's value is stable, in which case you're probably a time traveler (Welcome to our blog and send my regards to the Air Lords of Han!).

Now, take a look at the 1/4 oz gold coin on the left, and the pink circle on the 1gram gold nugget on the right. These are actual size.

Sunday pre-game, 7/15/2012

Hello friends. 
The monthly gold chart didn't fail me again. Once again, brown dotted line signalled buy…

 ... and the 40-day EMA signalled sell:

Gold in euros (weekly) held nicely:

Manic Miners

Well hello again.

Service as normal at Screwtape is being resumed after the emotional highs and lows of last week. By 'normal', I do of course mean 'technical analysis and philosophical discussion of precious metals as presented by five prosimians who like to use metaphors such as crème-de-menthe-drinking dung beetles'. So jolly well normal, in other words. And there'll definitely be no more underhand side-swipes or bitchy remarks aimed at the silverogosphere and its noble hosts.

Sunday pre-game, 7/8/2012

Hello friends - I decided to mix things up a bit this week and present a few charts. So with no further ado:
Monthly gold: Buy between 21-month MA (green, dotted) and lower trend line (brown, dotted). Rinse/repeat.

Heroism and Hatred

This post is a bit different, not least because it has nothing to do with precious metals, or money, or anything else in a similar vein that actually doesn't matter in any sense in the grand scheme of things.

But there's a story I want to tell, not least because it's unlikely to be told by anyone else. I have had to change the name and some minor details, but have done so only to protect the family and friends of the person concerned.

I first met Saima Khan a year ago. An utterly charming young woman, who lived in the tribal areas of Pakistan, Saima was (by external standards) a conservative Muslim and a proud Pashtun. Her life was her community and her family, and she often despaired in private conversation about the direction in which her country was headed. In public, however, she was inspirational. She was 5 feet tall and weighed no more than 90 pounds, but she had a knack of being able to fill a room with her presence, her intellect and her commitment to making a better life for those around her.

Sunday pre-game, 7/1/2012

UPDATE: I attacked Turd Ferguson in this post on the grounds that he disrespected a Screwtape colleague. I have since reason to believe (as per Turdite and commenter LeGrew's insight) that I might have jumped the gun and accused him unfairly, so I have deleted that part of this post, which, upon reflection, was uncharacteristically nasty, on account of my oxycontin withdrawal pangs at the time. 

Alright, now to the metals. We had a big move to close the week and month. These charts all speak for themselves, but I will speak a few words for them regardless (in captions):

Gold YTD. Watch the 40-day exponential moving average, which I follow in place of the less informative 20-day.