The Silver Bubble Bubble

Guest Post by GM Jenkins
Blow off top, folks ...

*courtesy of Google Trends

silver bubble
sell silver


Warren said...
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Warren said...

GM, any guesses at the volume there? The Google trends values measures stuff relative to itself, with 1 being the 'average'. What that means is that it's not really indicative of volume - the sharp ups and downs in the early segments would indicate fewer data points, so its probably a small sample.

What it means is that there is no way of telling whether the final sample represents 20 million people searching for that phrase (up from 1 million), or just 20 people, up from 1 person. Either way, your graph does suggest a 20-fold increase and 9-fold increase in interest respectively for each topic. I read somewhere once that the bull will try to throw off as many riders as it can - still holding on, but gee what a ride.

Just my two cents worth. Nice to see you over at Brian's place. I must admit to have tuned into his messages and switched off SGS's channel. As you I also respect Brian's choice to not stand behind an online alter ego - takes some guts. Having said that - has anyone done any research on his Darien Strategies fund? (Not that I have any reason to doubt he is who he says he is, just I normally dig a bit deeper on a person's profile to carefully weigh their opinion set).


Yukon Cornelius said...

Blow off top? Maybe, but definitely not *the* blow off top. I'm not even sure it's an intermediate blow off. I'm still thinking we might see $55 or $60 before it REALLY corrects. I've said for weeks that I didn't like silver's action and thought gold was a far better place to be. Silver was just way way way too frothy. I think this possible blow off is just that we're simply seeing a good chunk of folks moving from silver to gold.

I've stopped going to SGS site myself probably for the same reasons you have. There's very little discussion and thoughtful material and it's all just a bunch of 'Silver Hamburglers' running around going "Robble Robble Robble Silver Robble Blythe Robble." Zero Hedge is the same way pretty much. You have to sift though 99% worthless inane shit to get to someone actually saying something informative or new. Both very sad as I used to spend a lot of time there every day.

GM Jenkins said...

Hey Yukon C - I liked your remarks on turd's blog - how annoying is it, as you say, that anyone trying to debate a point is a hack or shill - goes to show human beings need religion - and silver is filling the role nicely.

I think you misunderstood my post here though ... I'm saying the "silver bubble" is a bubble - i.e. the use of the locution "silver bubble" is currebtly experienceing a blow off top:P

tho Warren points out that the grphs could be misleading, bec volume isnt taken into account.

Louis Cypher said...

Interesting GM.
Just for fun I followed your thinking and put in "sell silver", "buy silver"
and it shows something interesting.
It looks like there are twice as many people interested in buying than selling all the time.
Also notice the spikes in the buy silver chart. I haven't correlated them to silver cycles or price but this is definitely something to keep an eye on and follow up on. It is the poor mans gold after all.

Yukon Cornelius said...

Hey GM Jenkins,

As far as Turd's blog I just said what I believe needed to be said. I think the "manic silver bulls" (I'm just a regular physical silver bull) really needed to be brought back down to Earth and gave some sense knocked into them - hopefully myself and others accomplished that.

I really like Turd's blog and I don't want to see it go to shit like some of the others I used to visit.

I see what you did there with your post now. :)

flaunt said...

haha "silver bubble bubble." Love it.

Warren said...

Louis, cool graph overlay. Interesting again, the sharp movements which suggest low amounts of data producing those graphs for those keyword searches.

GM Jenkins, apologies as the original significance of your clever word play escaped me the first time around ... (I sometimes do that .. when I finish work my head is still in 'technical deconstruction' mode and it's difficult to switch off). I am now having a good giggle at your idea of public opinion also reflecting 'bids' on a particular meme and it being subject to the same overbought/underbought forces.

It reminds me of something that I always wanted to do (but would be a curiosity only) which is some kind of database - producing a 'heat map' of sentiment (analyzed by emotive words and word choice) by various people at various sites. It would be the ultimate 'find the nuggets of wisdom' mining operation amid a sea of froth.

For silver I am trying hard to keep my emotions in check - am loving the fact I now have the wind in my sails. Am by no means a fence sitter; definitely a silver bull with my calls for $1,000 in 30 years. I also enjoy what we are acheiving here in discussion which is essentially 'testing the claims' through rational discussion. It may keep me on this bull with realistic expectations and calm nerves. Kudos everyone for their contributions and comments.

Warren said...

Yukon, this is your post on The Watchtower that you're referring to, right?

p.s. do you have any Perth Mint stuff to do a naked silver saturday with? I'll gladly send you a little bit of fiat to obtain a 1oz Kookaburra for a photoshoot if you're interested.

Louis Cypher said...

Would you mind if we crowd source / brainstorm this this via editing your post?
What I have in mind is throwing up a few charts onto your post and then based on discussion editing them wiki style.

Warren said...

[[ Yukon, and reading a bit further your 2nd major comment there, your input seems well received by Irene, etc. Other Nuggets ... The Turd discovers the essence of FOFOA! Interesting, I would have thought he'd have digested all his stuff a long time ago - especially in direct relation to the price suppression mechanics. I find it interesting how many folk uncover various facets of the same core set of truths. It truly reminds me of the parable of the blind monks describing the elephant (the elephant is Freegold). ]]

Warren said...

[[ p.s. GM Jenkins '.. good giggle at your idea ..' what I mean is I'm grinning from ear to ear because I love your idea (not giggling as in ridicule). ]]

Yukon Cornelius said...


Yeah I'll do some Kookaburra pics on Saturday for you. I pretty much have some of every modern bullion coin. I'm a bit of a collector as well as a hoarder. :)

I'm always surprised that folks haven't heard of FOFOA or the old USAGOLD forums. Sometimes I just go through and read those old posts or read some of FOFOA's posts and let my brain baste in the philosophy of Freegold.

GM Jenkins said...

Oh definitely Louis, go for it - interested to see what you have in mind