Sunday pre-game 4/22

Now you see this one-eyed midget
Shouting the word "NOW"
And you say, "For what reason?"
And he says, "How?"
And you say, "What does this mean?"
And he screams back, "You're a cow
Give me some milk
Or else go home"

Something's happening here, and the hell if I know what it is. But gold held on the weekly chart, and I'm thinking this week will be a big up week.

 And check out the 4 yr weekly gold chart in euros:

Can gold in euros really break down here? And can gold collapse in dollars without it collapsing in euros? Then check out the gold monthly chart going back all the way to 2001 (this being the last week of the month, minus Monday, April 30) ... during this entire bull run there hasn't yet been three down months in a row. 

So, this might be a good week to set your homepage to kitco.  

Silver continues to trade strong. It refuses to fall into the pink zone on the daily chart, and clearly a resolution of a super wedge is approaching on the weekly chart:

The "10 yr yield in silver" chart has spent 6 weeks above the purple channel. It had spent 5 weeks below it in August/September:
Finally, on the $CCI commodities index chart, we bounced right off the Fibonacci 61% level:


Warren James said...


Hopefully gold does complete the bounce and I get to wallow in some juicy confirmation bias .. need me some.

Thanks for the exposition on technical analysis last week ;)

Ol'FordTrk said...

I usually celebrate my confirmation bias with a trip to KWN and play catch up with the interviews...with my headphones on! ;-)

Anonymous said...

Good stuff, GM. I'm also hoping for a big 'up' week, if for no other reason than to give the miners a bit of fuel to get them out of the ditch they're in...

I'm a bit confused by your gold/Eur chart: it doesn't seem to be of gold priced in Euros, but rather a ratio the nature of which I couldn't quite work out. Can you explain what it represents exactly to my poor tired and befuddled brain?

How long's this Dylan theme going to last for... ;-)

Edwardo said...

Cycle analysis from at least one quarter that I follow, Eric Hadik, says that paper gold is headed south for a bit.

GM Jenkins said...

Thanks guys-

JdA, that's just gold in dollars divided by the euro/dollar index. That approach is the only way i know how to get gold in foreign currencies on The patterns shouldn't change, though of course the vertical axis values have little meaning.

Edwardo, I looked up this fellow Hadik:

"However, it was not until he discovered the works of W.D. Gann and Gann’s integration of Biblical and natural cycles that Eric knew he had discovered his life’s passion and purpose."

That leaves me skeptical of his prognostication power... On the other hand, I get Bill Downey's emails and he relies on Gann a lot, so maybe there's something to it . . .

Warren James said...

Gold did approach that 1620 line, but decided it wouldn't stay in that area.

'Ooops. It suddenly changed its mind.'

Interesting to see if it holds. :)

GM Jenkins said...

Yes, I should've added that to my "usefulness of TA" comment - TA takes some of the emotion out of trading. You draw the $1620 line in the sand, and as bad as that snapshot you link to looked Wednesday, you don't buckle.

I had mentioned a few months ago that the "religious" element in the PMs has to do with the volatility (whatever its reason); it's a lot easier to stay on the bull (pun intended) if you have some explanatory narrative in your head to which you can refer frightening events.

Incidentally, I personally weigh such factors before casting too harsh a judgement on, e.g., KWN's propagandistic tone, it's "pumping" and all that ... we're all part of a terminally parasitized economic system, with (among many other hugely immoral aspects) an unconscionably extended negative real interest rate, which forces hard-working savers to speculate in *something* ... I say, let them speculate in the paper aristocracy's enemy, gold. "It pays no dividend."