For you cheapskates, my take home is that there's too much unwarranted bullishness in the PM-o'-sphere. *This* week will very likely be the one to confirm whether the bullishness is justified.
For example, look at the 40-day EMA (blue) ... gold made it barely past 2% over (red) for the first time since the February Bernank-Tank (since which it's been effective reisistance, and a very consistently profitable selling point for me). But like the last time it hit the red line, it coincided with a Bernankevent (black circle), and there will be one this week, so let's see if it holds.
Gold monthly lookin good, if it can finish the week here or higher. The brown dotted line continued to be a great point to go long.
The MAs I'm watching are the 377 (thick blue), which has been solid support for the entire bull, and has just been cleared; the 50 day MA (just cleared), and the 144 (which is like the 200 day at the $1645 level, and would be a good place to take some profits if gold moves up early in the week). I've also drawn horizontal lines depicting the length of the last two big corrections (with the 3 colors marking the low, the first peak before another sell-off, and then the breakout in 2008. Similar-seeming action currently)
Now, some silver charts:
|Nothing too exciting just yet on the daily, though the long span of sideways action reminds me of August 2010 before the big breakout|
|Long term log silver|
|And a zoomed in version|
|Linear long term silver, with purple trend line holding strong. I think $22 is improbable here, at least much more improbable than it was a month ago|
And as I mentioned last week, I'm not playing with silver until the CCI chart clears its 233 day MA (orange). It hit the 200 day MA last week (blue), but lost its resolve and dicked around above its Fibonacci line.