Sunday pre-game, 7/8/2012

Hello friends - I decided to mix things up a bit this week and present a few charts. So with no further ado:
Monthly gold: Buy between 21-month MA (green, dotted) and lower trend line (brown, dotted). Rinse/repeat.

Daily gold: bearish until 144-day MA (pink) can be decisively cleared.

Pesky 40-day EMA from last week couldn't hold again. But it's flattening out. I think the almost 11 month correction is  ending. 

Weekly gold in euros remains above post 2008 trend line (unlike in $)
The "gold as a safe haven" chart broke down. Very strange that industrial commodities should outperform gold here, since fear of deflation seem to be the driving force in markets. Probably a good buy signal for gold.

But $GOLD:$CCI, a similar chart to the one above, hasn't broken down yet and is right at support.

Daily silver chart. I'm not touching silver until we get some clear signals.

But the weekly silver chart actually looks pretty good to me, from a "feel" perspective.  Maybe, as for gold, the 15-month correction from the $50 high is ending. 


Edwardo said...

I'll just put it out there that, right now, I think gold will make a final (cyclical bear) low (within a secular bull) this fall. November to be precise. This call is based on cycles.

Having said all that, I don't really think of gold as being in a bull market, but, rather, simply behaving the way one would expect it to behave as befits its gradual return to prominence as the store of value par excellence.

Ol'FordTrk said...

I love that Gold/CCI chart! If it does break down the debate of is gold a currency or a commodity will make a come back. If the printing press doesn't fire up soon, I think the chart might breakdown. Many new investors in the PMs are becoming impatient.