Sunday pre-game, 10/21

Hello friends -

Re: gold: everything is pointing to a drop to at least $1690 (e.g., see my two $GOLD charts below). I don't think it will go below that, but I'll be buying all the way down to $1650 if it happens.

Beyond that, things could get ugly. There would probably be a quick move down to $1600, after which another test of the bottom of the year-long trading range at $1525 might beckon. But again, I'm not seeing that happening. The fundamentals are too strong. I'm betting on a new all-time high sometime next spring (but probably not before that).

I'm long the dollar, not least because I'm betting gold in euros will recover.  The 4 year trend line is in danger of being broken:

Check out the RSI on the daily euro-gold chart:
 Silver should test the 34- or 55-week MAs.


Warren James said...

Wow, that's some serious RSI movement!

Looks like Gold in AUD is set to head south for a little while on the other side of that slope (peaks which appear once every 6-8 months).

But if gold in Euros looks to be strong, then that would suggest some exchange rate volatility coming through. Don't quote me on that.

GM Jenkins said...

Yeah that RSI on the euro gold chart really surprised me ... the euro bull market in gold is only 8 years old (not 11-12 as in $GOLD), and the RSI has never plummeted so steeply (and only reached that level 5 or so times) ... but it's only 3% from its all time high!

In other news, namely of the "king world" variety, check otu this accompanying photograph

That was laugh out loud funny. Eric King, whoever the hell he is, is a twisted prick!