Metals update 12/19

This sell-off will get ugly if the following lines are broken in gold and silver:

When will it stop? My Fundamental Law of the gold bull market is based on the axiom of the "prudent parasite", which any student of ecology knows well. Parasites are selected to limit the damage they do to their hosts to maximize the blood they can suck in the long run (a dead host being obviously useless). The financial parasites who have infected the world and now make all of the important executive decisions will see to it (either consciously or as a quasi-emergent phenomenon, like a slime mold's stalk--it doesn't matter) that:

The price of gold will never fall so low that members of the middle class (working professionals, retirees, widows, etc.) who have not already bought bullion begin to feel psychologically comfortable buying bullion. Nor will price rise to the point where they begin to feel psychologically uncomfortable not buying bullion (i.e. they begin panic buying) until they are priced out of the market. In other words, until fiat money rapidly accelerates its approach to its intrinsic value of zero, gold will always be in a tight range where the growing obviousness that it's a good investment is matched by the appearance (and accompanying noise) that a massive sell-off is imminent.

If gold took off after QE3 and QE4, the members of the middle class who haven't yet bought bullion would start leaping out of their pot that's slowly being heated to a boil. Therefore, it was not going to happen. It's physics, really: the kind widow, who dotes upon her grandchildren, makes sure to vote and recycle and pay her taxes in full, who listens to the news and takes the mainstream media message in good faith, etc. -- her suffering shall be maximized so that the financial parasites may prosper. How could it be otherwise?

These violent cascades can go quite far, because so long as gold is violently selling off, the middle class won't feel comfortable buying, whatever the price. But waterfalls don't go on forever, and when gold consolidates, it won't be at a level so low that the members of the middle class who haven't bought bullion will start to leap out of pot and start to nibble as the truth of QE4 hits them on the head. In that vein, I don't see a consolidation lower than 3% from here (below $1600) (which, again, doesn't mean a brief trip there on e.g. Christmas Eve won't happen).


duggo said...

I'm obviously strange. I'm about to buy another stash of Gold. I never thought I would get so many opportunities to add to my little "horde".

All the pundits that have been banging-on about Gold and Silver going to the Moon are looking comical.

King World News "experts" have been shrieking and shouting for so long they are in danger of becoming boys who shout wolf.

Even BrotherJohn sounds depressed that Silver is still bouncing along in the same old rut.

I do get the feeling that we don't have too long to wait. Once all of the "experts" throw in the towel.....then whamo!
We won't know what hit us. The only protection is Gold.

Tony said...

Looks like your Christmas Eve prediction may just come to fruition. Nice call GM.