It's a fascinating time to be following the "markets." Something strange is afoot. The $VIX hasn't been this low since April 2007. What the hell was I even doing in April 2007? I vaguely recall a wedding of some sort where I drank myself practically into a coma and woke up next to the fat bridesmaid. Anyway, I've overlaid the $VIX (orange) over the "Gold Safe Haven" quotient. Gold doesn't exactly shine in this environment. I'm holding onto my puts, and in fact (as I mentioned in the comments section of S Prochemian's post), I added to my short position Wednesday when the miners (down big) decoupled from commodities and stocks (both slightly up). I've mentioned that trade several times here -- I learned about it during a two-week trial at Le Metropole Cafe. They could very well be right that it's some kind of manipulative signal. Or maybe you have a better explanation. Anyway, it's the one trade I can think of that has never failed. Sure, it might fail next time, but it's been easy money for a few years now.
I want no part of the long side of equities right now. But I'm not short either, because the Fed will get what it wants until it doesn't.
And the linear chart shows that there's about $20 bucks of slack before what could be an ugly free-fall. (Which probably would be fairly short. But ugly.)
The "gold apocalypse" chart is near its parabolic resistance. While that's speculative, note the theme of lower highs. You gotta believe another test of the green support is just a matter of time. But I'm short, because I think that might be months away.
Silver looks better, but if gold falls, it certainly has a fair amount of slack to the obvious support lines on the linear daily and log weekly charts below.
See you soon!