Closed my recent long positions kicking and screaming. I actually committed a trader's sin by lowering my predetermined sell point after things took a bad turn in early April. NB: the trading gods always punish those who break principle!
I'm still surprised and mildly incredulous -- given the macro-environment, I didn't think gold would break clear out of its 12+ year exponential trend. But for those who have been following this market, the $1480 weekly close is a big deal, whatever the cause. Move your goal posts further from here and you might as well go ahead and buy your tombstone early with "gambler's ruin" carved into it. It pays to remember: the market will still be there tomorrow. Actually ... I can't say that with confidence.
But assuming it will - gold will soon probably close a week testing the ~$1430 level on the weekly three line break chart (red horizontal line)
The end of April will give us a big clue as to how bad things look for the rest of the year. A strong close to the month could mean that this was just a (heavy-handed) wash-out, or, as Paul Craig Roberts has been saying, a thug move by the Fed to protect the dollar. I'm by no means ruling that out. I'm swayed neither by those who always cry manipulation, nor by those who never concede the possibility. Both are flip sides of the same coin, insofar as they let their psychological needs (albeit different psychological needs) control their faculty of judgement. It's simply not easy (or pleasant) to suspend judgement and update one's provisional conclusions as new evidence demands. It's also not easy to widen what one considers "evidence" -- as must be done in our current situation, given the enormous asymmetry of power between the diddlyshit class and the coterie of men with undeniably sociopathic tendencies who can, to a first approximation, do as they please, given their unchecked ability to hide behind a byzantine system of derivatives, procedural law, and propaganda.
At any rate, a $1430 (or below) monthly close on this chart would mark a very bearish three line break.
In fact, a silver monthly close below $27.50 on the monthly chart would also mark an important reversal, and as of now with silver under $26, that looks a lot more probable than not. So, a very bad day for metals bulls.
And note: zero support on the weekly three-line break silver chart whatsoever. This could get ugly.
here for my rationale). Well, the huge red bar this week means that the DOW pretty much has to have a big sell off, with gold moving inversely, if we're to see a three-line break anytime soon. And that seems intuitively true, too; gold has been going nowhere since equities began their recent blast-off in November.
Does it make "sense" that stocks are responding to trillions of paper money being created every month (and no-selling the FOMC jawboning) but gold and silver are not? Not to me. But this is where we are.