I'm currently not trading the metals because I'm betting on the NBA playoffs. A much more even playing field - I don't think anyone gets calls in advance notifying them of what's going to happen. I've always done well with basketball. Sports like football and baseball i find nearly impossible -- too many variables. Betting successfully on basketball, especially playoff basketball (when you can assume that players actually care about winning), comes down to to the ~8 players on whom the outcome will depend 95% of the time, and a few other factors like home court advantage. Just using the golden rule "which team would be more okay with losing" (or if you're playing the spread, something like "how okay would team X be with being blown out") has led to more successful bets than failures. and then there's prop betting, which I've done even better at, but you'll have to subscribe to my newsletter to learn my secrets.
But, returning to the metals, as a gold bull, I'm convinced the ratio of the gold price to stocks is what's important right now. Simply put, a macro-environment in which stocks are shitting all over gold is not one in which gold can shine (there's a real stinker of a pun there - did you catch it??)
On that note, gold's ratio with the S&P500 recently broke through an important price level and hit a fundamentally important trend line (dotted blue) and (very) long term horizontal support. This needs to be watched closely.
The huge three line break to close April on the monthly chart is not encouraging (note the last red bar is in still "in progress" -- where it ends up or if it disappears will depend on how May closes):
Just for kicks, I did punt on some OTM calls Friday, after gold recovered nicely from the de rigeur jobs report sell-off. I'm looking to sell half at $1500, i.e. the 38% Fib level from the recent ~$1800 top. Then, hoping for $1550, which would be the 50% level from $1800, as well as the 38% level from the $1920 top.
Just a few more charts that popped out at me this week. Check out the ratio of 10 yr yields to the Russel Small Cap index since the market low of March 2009:
And the linear chart of yields priced in "real shit" continues its steady descent since 1990, oblivious to all the volatility around it