Sunday metals pre-game, 2/23/2014

Greetings, friends-

I'm still sitting in cash since selling longs a little early at $1294.

Regular readers will see lots of my targets are being approached, as here:

and look here:

I like that rule about seeking strong trends and not sweating the first or last 10% (or 5%, or whatever) of any potentially major rally. As of yet, what's going on in gold (and silver) is still just a short term correction to a long, painful, and, as of yet, ongoing, bear cycle (I am, as you, gentle reader, may have guessed, long commas).

Case in point: I want to see one more red bar on these old weekly bellwether charts to be convinced this reversal might have more legs than the last 3. Didn't happen this week.

But, don't get me wrong -- while I've been extremely skeptical of the "the bull market is back!" perma-bottom-callers all year, this time I can see things going either way. The 20-30 day moving average ribbon (on the weekly chart below) has been emphatically breached, and it seems to be flattening out and turning up. But since commodities are so overbought right now (see last chart), I'd like to see a test of that ribbon as support. 

Hope to have some cool monthly charts for you as Feb comes to a close! Till then,


Elmer Habavilo said...

GM- As a somewhat-perma bottom caller, I think we are through the yellow zone on that 10yr / slv chart. In a lot of ways, I'd welcome a gold foray below 1200, but I don't think the dollarlickers can manage it. They just don't have enough of humanity on their side, and humanity is stupid, but not quite stupid enough.

Dogs however, are another story--- my London trader says that smart money pooches worldwide (the speculative long category) are buying all the beef they can get their paws on.... But they're doing it wisely-- using back-channels like Snausages so they don't upset the market. This has caused cattle prices to hit new highs. Some of these dirty dogs are autistic, and therefore find comfort in repetitive words and motions (like being rocked back and forth in a cradle or hammock) .... hence the word repetition in the clever marketing of Snausages below...

GM Jenkins said...

lol Elmer, any advice on marijuana growth stocks?