Sunday PM pre-game, 4/19/2015

Greetings friends!

Figured I'd post an update since I started building a short position in gold and silver Friday. Simple idea: I will close it if gold crosses the 2-yr moving average on this monthly chart.

 Here are some other charts that suggest to me that gold and silver are headed down before they are headed up in any meaningful way

 It's been a year since I posted this chart, but nothing has changed: we are in the midst of a major correction, so it is unlikely that the 50% won't be hit on a monthly closing basis.
My gut feeling (nothing more, nothing less) is silver is headed for the green circle on this weekly chart (I'm thinking intraday, probably not so low on a weekly closing basis)

Then there's the stubborn "treasury yields in silver" chart we all know. Looks like it will cross by the end of 2015 (see convergence of line of best fit and other dotted lines in magnified box below), my guess is either very soon or in the fall.
 New "highs" were made on these gold, silver proxy three-line break charts. I see more bars to be added before a reversal

That's all for now!


Gary said...

Very interesting juncture we're at right now.

Those in the 'risk' bear camp that I read are mostly expecting the cyclical bull to draw to an end very imminently, and for gold to head upwards, through til September, when there might be a 'last chance' rally in equity markets, and gold may dip back again.

I have no idea myself, but feel that 2015 will mark the beginning of a 20 year+ run up in gold, as well as in interest rates.

Warren James said...

When silver gets to $12.00 I'm going to back up the truck!