NOTE: I endorse the debate ONLY, not SMRI's assertions which unfold here.
This thread is on 'slow burn', a permanent page which won't get buried easily. We'll extend it as required based on content.
somanyroadsinvesting said...Good analysis as usual. I like the way you guys analyse stuff. I would love a good debate/analysis on the whole "paper" gold trade as FOFOA refers to it. The LBMA gold trading mkt etc. I find it odd everyone gives FOFOA a pass in this area but make fun of all the easy silver targets on the web. In a recent video FOFOA asked if someone bought 'real' gold or 'GLD paper' gold. A basic underpinning of his Freegold theory is that somehow the price of gold now somehow does not reflect the true physical price and is obscured by massive amounts of paper trading. Yet there is almost no discussion of this on the FOFOA bog, seems to be taken as a given.
I like to keep an open mind and understand as much as possible. Over there I feel they have stopped inquiring, which I think is dangerous.
I have decided to stop posting comments or questions on FOFOA's blog. There does not seem to be any desire there to critically think about alterntive theories or ideas. It has become completely cult like.
I recently posted this comment and was immediatly made fun of. Despite the fact i never agreed or disagreed w the theories in the interview just thought it was an interesting discussion.
Listened to this recent podcast on Hyperinflation. The professor studied every known hyperinflation and even found some ones never before discovered. Was an interesting discussion. In regards to the US he doesnt think hyperinflation is a risk now, said when the time comes the fed will suck the liquidity out.
He also makes an interesting pt that people are focused on the growth in the Fed balance sheet which he calls 'state' money, but really only accounts for 15% of total broad money (refers to some M4 number). So while 'state' money has gone up(tripled since Lehman) it has been more than offset by decline in banking and shadow banking money creation so he actually makes the argument is the fed has actually been weak in their response when in context of overall broad money aggregates. And broad money creation has been anemic.
Considering the main outcome FOFOA predicts is hyperinflation in the US I would find it interesting to spend an hr and hear the views of probably the foremost expert on hyperinflations in the world. Probably can't hurt, right? But seems like they find no value in that over there.
Hope to have some good debates and intelligent discussions in the future here. Thx
Fri Nov 09, 03:36:00 PM GMT
somanyroadsinvesting said...This comment has been removed by the authorMaybe eventually I will get around to writing a post about it. However, that is why I was trying to address specific points of FG theory, ie. the 'paper' trading. Although I don't think it would do any good because his followers would just attack and hurl verbal attacks vs trying to engage in a real debate. Notice how FOFOA never addressed MA directly, just said he is confusing him w a goldbug. He will engage easy targets but any real debate he usually deletes the comments or ignores. I just dont find the debates there engaging. They are all circular self referencing. I mean FOFOA thought it was cool that 'Jeff' pretty much only comments with quotes from past FOFOA posts. Weird, how about thinking and coming up w your own thoughts.
I have read the whole trail, probably 60% of the FOFOA posts(i would say all of the ones that get referenced many times). I like reading them more for the monetary and economic insights vs FG theory per se.
I really feel there are many similarities to some christian cults. They always come back with the same stuff whenever you pose questions: 'you have too much baggage' love that one. Again without ever answering the specific points. Oh but if some silver fanatic comes on the blog they will address his pts all day long. Any real meaningful pts they sidestep and just say you dont understand. And then hurl some good goldbug insults for good measure to pump themselves up. Its just not intillectly enganging to debate them because instead of keeping an open mind they just always come back to some circular logic and say you havn't read enough, you dont understand etc.
I was pretty underwhelmed by the recent video series. These are the people attacking any non believers? most have zero investing experience. Its like they walked into this corner of the Internet with no frame of reference and now the word makes sense to them.
I personally think if there was ever a debate MA would destroy FOFOA. I was unimpressed listening to FOFOA in his interviews. He just acts like he has it figured out and everyone else is wrong. I didnt see anything that showed any special insight. Then he lost me when he asked one of the guys if his friend bought 'paper' gold or real gold. cont:
Fri Nov 09, 03:36:00 PM GMT
somanyroadsinvesting said...This comment has been removed by the authorThere are so many specific pts that I think should be addressed: a) 'paper trading' FOFOA references this all the time. Hey if people want allocated gold they can buy that, if they dont care and they want unallocated then hey thats their choice.
b) the govt wont charge cap gains taxes on the gains(if there is one thing I am confident on is that govt will continue to tax people on whatever they can).
c) 'gold must flow' somehow the powers that be have managed the gold price so that cheap gold can flow to where it needs. This is just so bizzare, i mean what would that imply that Saudi Arabia has like 20k tons of gold? India has been the biggest consumer for decades, no secret how much they import every yr. These rich arabs love to spend money, to think they have some giant unknown stash is not credible. They have huge social expenses now, they need 100 oil just to fund a the social programs, after the exorbidant expenses of the family and the social costs to keep the country from unrest I dont think there is much left over.
d) Decoupling of 'paper' gold price and physical. Listen to the Bron interview w Financial sense. Unless banks stop wanting to make money on arbitrage the chance there will be some decoupling is very remote.
Again i dont mean to say I havn't learned a lot from reading his posts, I have. FOFOA is a economic and monetary expert but I dont sense he has any experience on financial mkts and trading and how they work. I asked someone who has traded gold in London for over ten yrs about this idea of decoupling and he just said it doesnt make any sense.
I kind of make the analogy to a religion, hey whatever keeps you keeping the faith. I mean you can't have it both ways. The current 'paper price means nothing', but then he constantly shows tables of the annual prices of gold since the Euro was created as some evidence of FG emerging. So is the price real or just a 'paper' price. If the current paper price means nothing then you can't reference historical price movements as evidence of something. Remember in the Buffett article he says something like 'bubble in paper gold, sure, but in physical, never' I mean just bizarre. Why can't there ever be a bubble in physical gold?
I think he intentially makes his posts very complicated and opaque so as to divert criticism. I mean it was kinda of absurd to know that these guys shouting everyone down saying they dont understand anything are: ex cons, patent lawyers etc. Just bizarre.
I used to belong to VIC a website for serious value investors. You get very good intellectual informed debates there. On FOFOA site I see little that resembles a group of smart people hashing ideas around.
It pretty clear that Another and FOA thought with the EURO introduction that the world would eventually turn its back against the Dollar and eventually the Dollar would hyperinflate because all the dollars in the world would race back to the US to try to get real stuff before it collapses. Its been 15 yrs and it hasnt happended.
So where they right to buy gold in late 90's sure, but was their rationale right, hard to tell. There were also many others who bought back then for entirely different reasons(price approached production cost, stock mkt was in a bubble about to pop, concern over ever increasing debt and deficits, 9/11 and ensuing wars and how to finance them, historical price relationships w/ other asset classes became favorable etc).
Sat Nov 10, 04:01:00 PM GMT
doublesuited said...This comment has been removed by the authortest
Sat Nov 10, 06:39:00 PM GMT
doublesuited said...I too was disappointd with the video series. FOFOA and his "top" followers do not seem very intelligent or sophisticated. Although I agree with a lot of what FOFOA says re the economy and I like gold, I think he and most of his group come from pretty narrow backgrounds and their understanding of the world, markets, finance and investing is pretty limited. People like Faber or Rogers have experience in all markets and are much more sophisticated.
Sat Nov 10, 06:45:00 PM GMT
One thing I have witnessed over the years; If your questions or complaints posted at FOFOA's blog are not answered, or at least not "answered with original thoughts"... well, it's because it has been covered before - hence the reposting... or possibly, it's because your complaints/questions are not worthy of a response. I've been there - no big deal. No hand-holding required...
You might not like to hear that, but you're free to do with it what you like. Nobody is forcing you to agree with anything presented there, here or anywhere else. Take it or leave it.
Now, please do a post of your own original thoughts against/for FG, or whatever? If it gets some response, then I guess you have succeeded:) You will get more respect either way, as opposed to cowardly badmouthing people in other venues...
Sat Nov 10, 07:09:00 PM GMT
somanyroadsinvesting said...This comment has been removed by the authorHere we go the FOFOA disciples are in attack mode. Cool. I just listed 4 pts I felt were implausable, unbelievable or unlikely. Feel free to respond to those pts.
Oh yeah I know I have too much baggage, I'm blocking the trail. Jaja you guys are too much.
Sat Nov 10, 07:26:00 PM GMT
/Sleeping Village/ said...Attack mode! Wow. You're a sensitive fella.
I thought that's what you'd say, though. +1 for originality. Your "4 pts" have been addressed... a few times.
Do you want to hold hands now?
Sat Nov 10, 08:29:00 PM GMT
doublesuited said...Oh right they probably have been addressed in the many opaque excerpts from scripture from people like another, foa or fofoa. I am sure you may do more than hold hands when you all get together in your spiritual retreats talking back and forth to each other in nebulous self referencing language.
The current proponent of this "belief" is an unidentified unemployed someone who re posts excerpts from some anonymous web postings many years ago and asks for donations to survive so he doesn't have to sell his gold. Seriously, what would he do if he didn't get any donations. He would have to sell all his gold before all the "paper" markets broke down and gold goes to 50k+.
This is very akin to a cult. You have some mysterious leader who quotes "the truth" from some other mysterious "gods" who has gathered a following by those who feel reassured and empowered by having discovered the truth. This leader then asks for donations so he can continue his "work" and is passionately defended by his followers from anyone that may question his teachings. One of his main followers even asked him for relationship advice??
The responses to simple questions like "you haven't read enough" or "you need to spend more time" or "you have too much baggage" is all very similar to fanatical religious cults where members need to pay to study more or take more classes so that they can obtain a higher level of understanding or enlightenment. They are all wrapped up in the supposed complexity which makes one feel reassured and empowered for having discovered "the truth" and anyone that asks reasonable questions is a heretic.
I think there is some good stuff in the fofoa posts. I think that a lot of the good work is overshadowed though by this fanatical obsession with another, foa,silver bug attacks and the general preaching like nature of the blog.
Sat Nov 10, 09:29:00 PM GMT
somanyroadsinvesting said...This comment has been removed by the authorScrewtape are you starting to see how unhinged these FG followers are. I actually would be really worried about holding my gold if I thought any significant amount of the gold is held for a FG theory rationale. I am starting to think they are just as unhinged as the Chris Duanes and Brother John’s of the world.
Thanks Sleeping Village for showing exactly the typical debate that goes on in the FOFOA site. Here is the typical scenario:
a) question posed by outsider
b) ridicule ensues by followers or FOFOA
c) outsider asks if they could please address the questions
d) followers respond its all been addressed already
e) outsider asks for specifics
f) links to pages and pages of opaque, anonymous and obscure posts with self referencing quotes which don’t answer the questions.
g) outsider says i don’t think my pts were addressed.
h) followers hurl endless insults and condescending comments at outsider that they are not smart enough to understand, have not spent enough time on the ‘trail’, or have too much ‘baggage’.
Sleeping if you feel you understand the FG concepts so well as to insult and ridicule anyone who dare questions its theory. Then please in your OWN words address my pts I posed in a reasonable space.
Sat Nov 10, 09:51:00 PM GMT
/Sleeping Village/ said...Sure is a lot of animosity floating around these days...
The only reason I said anything in the first place was because I don't like your attitude, and I think it's cowardly to come here to whine about FOFOA's blog. Let it go, man. Your understanding of FG or anything else truly means fuck all to me.
Like I said, take it or leave it.
You obviously have your mind made up, and that's fine. Time to move on. We're not having a competition here, and I'm pretty sure readers can make their own decision on how "unhinged" the door might be:)
Sat Nov 10, 11:01:00 PM GMT
doublesuited said...If you don't care then why are you defending someone other blog? It is hard to post on the fofoa blog when he deletes posts. Is that cowardly? You said "you have made up your mind". Actually it is quite the opposite. The fofoa group are the one not willing to discuss in an intelligent manner.
I too have been a part of stock/bond investment groups where membership is actually restricted to those who post good ideas. There are frequent vigorous debates but the discussion is nothing like the back and forth that goes on at fofoa.
A sign of an intelligent person is the realization that the world is inherently uncertain and the future is unknowable though we can make informed, educated and reasoned decisions based on what we know now. Most of the fofoa group do not exhibit these traits unfortunately. I think the blog would gain a lot more fans if it wasn't constantly inculcating its followers with such a convoluted ideology.
Sat Nov 10, 11:22:00 PM GMT
somanyroadsinvesting said...This comment has been removed by the authorOh I forgot to put this part of the general FG dialogue into my post. Again when given the opportunity to respond to questions they say you have already made your mind up so move on.
Who said my mind was made up? If i was not interested I would not have posed the 4 questions I had. Again when given the opportunity you refuse to respond to specific concerns. Why not just respond to the pts I made? What is holding you up?
But hey the the F word was a nice touch of class. Would not expect anything else from a FG follower.
Sat Nov 10, 11:22:00 PM GMT
/Sleeping Village/ said...Again, you haven't made any new points... okay? Please reread what I've already wrote.
Are you two for real? I feel like I've entered the Twilight Zone
I don't speak for FOFOA or anyone but myself, by the way.
Sun Nov 11, 12:20:00 AM GMT
somanyroadsinvesting said...This comment has been removed by the authorThe reason I posted here is because I am trying to start a real debate with honest back and forth discussion, something that is impossible on the FOFOA blog.
Again you have posted 3 times now since my original post which had posed 4 questions. Again its the same old thing: its all been addressed before, too much baggage, not smart enough, havn't read enough, move on you have made up your mind.
I am trying to hear genuine responses from people that can address these issues. If you cannot do that then probably no reason to keep responding to my comments.
Again no debate just pithy little comments that dont expand anyones knowledge.
Sun Nov 11, 12:28:00 AM GMT
Warren James said...@SRMI, I have some questions I need you to answer - could you please get in touch by email [link removed]. Thanks.
Sun Nov 11, 05:54:00 AM GMT
somanyroadsinvesting said...This comment has been removed by the authorWarren, I would prefer to keep any discussion online. If you prefer I don't pose questions about this theory here then I respect your decision. Its your blog. I only posted here because you guys seem to be the most intelligent, unbiased and logical of any blog in the metals sphere. Doesn't seem like its generated and real responses yet anyway.
Sun Nov 11, 10:53:00 AM GMT
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