Absolut Reflections (Guest Post by Warren) Updated

For those of you busy submitting your income taxes - I recommend you do not read "Income Tax : The Root of All Evil", (brought to my attention by Kris Sayce @ Money Morning) http://mises.org/etexts/rootofevil.pdf. Written in 1954 it's difficult to ignore the raw wisdom which explains simply how our liberties have been methodically taken from us - as real for us here in Australia as it is for you good folk in the USA.

Today my fingers fumbled a fiat currency coin, an interesting experiment to place it next to a half ounce gold coin and confirm the fiat coin is no better than a game token (the ones you use in the slot machines at a video arcade). Flipping it over the design caught my eye and suppressing the urge to vomit I realised from my reaction I have truly graduated from the University of Precious Metals.



Congratulations to Turd Ferguson - a new record of site activity. At last count 467 comments on one thread, stretching an already thin signal-to-noise ratio. But looking closely at the turd bowl, over time there have been some absolute gems buried - the least of which has been the appearance of no less than 4 'blythe' identities ("bsjm", "Blythe", "blythe_masters" and "Trinity B/Trinity Ble"). Now objectively, at least three of these are not the real Blythe (and possibly the fourth) but it's piss funny that 'Trinity B' put an entry in 'guess the price for silver' next Thursday comex close ($44.58).

With Silver's true value being discovered at a rapid pace, I just want to spare a thought for Wynter Benton, whose advice I surely traded on and am grateful for. I was right when I suggested they would be forgotten in the exuberation - everyone too busy counting their fiat gains to wonder why the price of silver suddenly began trading differently late last year. As silver punches into new highs, the new task will be trying to do homework to figure out at which point silver is over or under valued. I'm doing a project which should provide some good objective analysis, more soon -- Warren.

(Sunday Update)

The blythe identity calling themselves "Trinster" also had some posts under the tag 'Trinity Ble', which I had missed. Actually there was price information in one of the Trinity Ble comments - an incredibly good call, as detected later by 'Venturi' 14-Apr-2011.

"... I'll throw you a bone. Silver at no lower than $39.65 tonight. Will get to just short of $41 tomorrow, then back below $40 before creeping back up. Will get near to $42/42.50 on Friday. Next week, it'll go towards and probably through $43/$44... - Trinity Ble [ April 12, 2011 6:42 PM ]

Now the only reason I'm looking at this is that I'm toying with the idea of throwing some dollars into silver next week's dip so I want to test Trinity's price call (and also try out my digitizer for some chart markup). Here are those calls overlaid on the silver chart (approximate).

24 comments:

Warren said...

One of the interesting things about all the 'Blythe' posts is that they are quite sophisticated (sophisticated trolls?). There are also a few comments in reply (do-dah) which look like they are from members of the Wynter Benton Group.

But of all of the commentators on the Watchtower notice-board (which I might not be reading any longer due to time constraints), I like Dr Jerome the best - his stuff really resonates with me. This was his reply to the 'bsjm' identity and I liked it so much I kept it in my digital scrap book.

Dr. Jerome said...

I have noticed a few posts from some seemingly informed investors who know far more than they are sharing.

Most recently, bsjm said:
"Did you really think it would be that easy?
You boys really have no idea what your up against."

Well bsjm, you are correct. I am just a sheeple who finally is becoming a bit informed. I have no idea how deep the rabbit hole goes. This is a once in a lifetime event and I am rooting for whoever the big players are that are really the ones up against it.

But "they" should be nervous. Protests on Egypt brought down a stable system. How many put their bodies out there? 1/82 of the population perhaps? In the silver battle, that ratio could go much higher when the general population puts their money in silver.

I only matter as part of a collective group. Its TPTB who should be unsettled with Turd's blog going viral and thousands of amateur investors, each with a few dollars, acting in unison to BTFD and hold for the long term, all listening to the collective wisdom of some very competent members of this community. And we can fight this safely from our computer desks and coin shops--no need to face down brutal regimes in the streets.


Please join us wholeheartedly. Share your wisdom. I don't need to know who we are really up against or who you are. I am glued to this blog for good advice on price levels, trends, and stock tips and some encouraging commentary that keeps me on the roller-coaster. I suspect you have a lot to contribute. Your advice is your resume. I am happy to listen and learn.


22-Feb-2011

Louis Cypher said...

There is something very, very wrong with a tax office being celebrated. "Working for all Australians" Hah! That's an Oxy-Stupid.

Maybe it should say "this coin would be 40% bigger but we already took our cut"

It's get your taxes done weekend here is the USA and it always makes me pissed off. Maybe Wynter_Benton will show up and cheer me up.

Louis Cypher said...

Thought I would throw this up here just because.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDmJcDvaBGU&feature=player_embedded

Babstar said...

"There is something very, very wrong with a tax office being celebrated."
Hey Louis... As an Aussie I resemble that comment!

Robert Leroy Parker said...

Warren,

I'd bet money these blythe posters are fake if I could. I'd also bet money that wynter benton never got any cash premiums for their future contracts. I think silver is simply being driven up by hoards of public investors buying physical. Who knows how long it will go on for, but it definitely looks like a greater fool game right now.

Regards,
Butch

Louis Cypher said...

RLP,
With respect ALL "investment" is built on the greater fool theory. The difference between Gold and Silver and every other investment is the supply is finite. We can manufacture almost every other "investment"including oil and paper currency backed by Unicorn farts and Pixie poop.

We can substitute any investment with another except Gold and Silver. We can try and fake Gold and Silver currencies with pieces of paper but in the end there are currencies and then there are hard currencies. Throughout history we have tried to fake Gold and Silver with pieces of paper and it NEVER ends well for the holders of those pieces of paper. To think this time is any different is the greater fool investment.

Even if you think bugs are completely wrong and the USD is where it's at it would still be a good idea to take out an insurance policy in the form of a few coins of Gold. Worst case scenario you will lose 50% in the next few years if world peace breaks out. At least you haven't bought a paper policy that depends on the Insurance co. remaining solvent or keep having to pay into the policy.

We are not even close to the greater fool parabolic momentum yet. We will get there at some point but it's the greater fool who will exchange his hard currencies to soft currencies at this point.
I use friends and family as a gauge. Most of them know I have invested in both metals. I have even asked them to buy some. I have laid out the reasons why and not a one has.

What we are seeing right now is small time hoarders, the doom and gloom crowd, the people who are thinking about buying 3 to 6 months of rations hoarding Silver and Gold. The middle tier pros are looking at this as a trade for their firms. When the hedge funds start taking delivery like Texas University just did then I will start diversifying out of Silver and Gold and into real estate etc.


As to whether these posters are fake .... who knows? If nothing else they prompt thinking.

Robert Leroy Parker said...

Hello Louis,

I subscribe to the freegold philosophy. That statement should make my beliefs and some of my positioning clear.

The velocity of physical silver is through the roof right now while gold is moving very slowly by all recent accounts of coin shops that ive heard. If they both act as an equal store of value, why the difference in movement?

However, I am playing the silver market with the naive hope of increasing my physical gold holdings to more than they could be right now. Will this work before the freegold transition occurrs? In the end maybe, maybe not, but the last 3 months have been the most successful I have ever had due to silver. But either way I do not believe silver holds the same properties as gold and I don't believe it will develop them in the future.

Warren said...

Hi Robert Leroy Parker. Yep, you are well known - you and I appear to share the same blog reading list at the minute and I see most of your comments. Thanks for taking the time to hang out here as well to contribute your thoughts.

I guess it comes back to testing claims. For me, there are still a lot of claims out there which are not sufficienty tested. The claims are of such magnitiude that there is money to be had - so it's worth my while to spend some time to test the falsehood or truth of the claims. Right now, my trail has led me to the SLV and I'm knocking on that door as we speak.

The fisticuffs between SGS and O'Flanagan was something to behold - I think it's good that someone has taken the other side of the fight, but that's about it. I agree with you that gold has better wealth-storage properties than silver, and I even subscribe to FOFOA's views on silver being left out in the cold when it comes to the revaluation part ... but I would also assert that silver is still fundamentally undervalued even at it's current price of $43/oz.

In regards to the Trinity Blue posts, I am also going to put some money down on the other side of the bet - a small amount of fiat on the Trinster's price call for silver Thursday Comex Close. I want to ride the coattails of the folk who look like they have more information than me, which is why I keep digging for nuggets ... (relying on my intuition to let me know which ones they are).

Louis Cypher said...

RLP,
I have been meaning to write back but got caught up in day to day life.
Thanks for the clarification on your freegold position as it helps put things in context.
As regards (IMHO) why Silver is moving a few percentage points a day when gold is moving much slower it's simply Silver is a better bet when you are a futures trader. Much more volatility historically and and like all commodities it is easier to play on the upside as well as downside. It's pretty obvious Gold is being pinned as much as possible as it is still considered the alternative money. Silver is that no mans land commodity / money thing. More commodity in the modern world though and right now if you had never heard of Silver you would be wondering when you should be trading your Wheat, Rice or Oil for Gold as they are going nuts as well.



The oft quoted historical ratio of 16 to 1 might have to be re thought as well as Silver is consumed and gold is not. Especially as Silver is a by product for most miners it may not be worthwhile digging it out and processing it if the demand for base metals starts to dry up.

I like the Free gold concept but until today I thought it was a version of Utopia that will probably never happen. Then I read this ...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/did-fed-its-stealthy-synthetic-bet-keep-yields-low-become-next-aig
It is the scariest, craziest, probably most important article ZH has ever published.
If the Fed has actually done this (I need to re read the article a couple more times) it is shocking and scary in it's implications. If I am reading this correctly the Fed has dug a hole so big they have no way out except to revalue gold to some huge number. Again, I really need to read that article again.
But obviously the Feds plan is they hope to God the Puts expire worthless. If they do not then they have only one option and that is to print and keep on printing to pay off those in the money Puts. The irony of course is those puts will be paid with worthless paper.

Been thinking lately when to cash in the Silver for Gold because (even though I think Silver should be worth $80 - $120 buck per Oz now) I am going to play the ratio game. At 35 to 1 I will trade approx 25% of my Silver in for gold. At 30 to 1 I'll trade 25% of the remaining. At 25 to 1 etc etc.
This way I have locked in profits on Silver and playing with the Houses money.

It keeps my core holdings intact and should be in a better position for the inevitable move higher for Gold.
Not investment advice.

Louis Cypher said...

Hey Warren,
I was reading through the comments section on SGS and I found it interesting to say the least. Kid Flanagan held his ground pretty well but I think he chose the wrong venue if he thought he was going to get a conversation. Each to their own I guess.

Robert Leroy Parker said...

I've been thinking we're on a similar page for a while now. The concerns that you expressed at the flow of value are also concerns that I share. The moral quandary of investing in wall street is something I've had to come to terms with. There are certain situations that I still obstain from like the tbtfs and oil opportunities at the suffering of others, shorting japan, egypt, etc.

Perhaps the real reason the jpmorgan meme continues to propogate despite what appears to be zero hard evidence is the camaraderie of taking on a tbtf. I am however more inclined to believe jp morgan is not being taken to the cleaners and is probably making money from silver. But the false hope of doing something honorable remains strong, and it makes me nervous when I see people writing about buying silver on fresh credit cards. To me it looks like a bump and run pattern may be developing in silver and those do not end well so I am cautious but still in, only at a much lower level.

When considering if I am part of the problem, now I see it as I do voting, which is that I am making no difference at all on the big stage, but I can impact the local level by helping to educate others in regards to my understanding of the IMFS

Robert Leroy Parker said...

Clarification: my last post was addressed to warren.

Louis I plan on reading that article in its entirety tonight, especially since it has indfluenced your opinion of freegold.

Robert Leroy Parker said...

Louis,

I think the dialogue regarding the fall of commodities, not just silver, is especially strong right now, particularly in the msm. I am actually very interested to witness the next significant correction/collapse of commodities so that the true perception of gold by the masses is revealed. Is it still regarded as a commodity or is it now a store of value that will hold up or increase in fiat price with deflation.

Regarding the gold/silver ratio, I don't give any credence to 16:1 since reading Fofoa's Focal point:gold. Perhaps I have been indoctrinated by freegold to my shortcoming, and Fofoa will be wrong, as Jesse reminds us that anything is possible and the future is unknowable. Link

However, I did recently exchange some of my silver for gold at silver 37 and will look to do so again at silver 50.

With regards to the ZH treasury manipulation article, it is very interesting indeed. I have been considering taking a short position on treasuries myself and will have to reconsider as if the articles implications are true, the whole market could unwind overnight leaving me with hyperinflated dollars. I suppose physical gold is in essence a short on all paper, and vice versa as Fofoa has said, and that taking on a position of that sort is totally unecessary. I can't say i'm surprised by the articles possibilities though, but I would love to get someone like Mish's opinion on it for further examination. I will email him and see if he has read it and formed an opinion.

GM Jenkins said...

Good morning gentlemen -
Here is a youtube on the Fed's put strategy that might be helpful to anyone, like me, whose eyes glazed over after the first paragraph of the zero hedge article Louis posted: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnZnkaq8Nf8&feature=player_embedded#at=39

GM Jenkins said...

Then there's this guy. A yahoo finance header which maybe you've also seen titled "how to chase the silver bubble." At first I thought the guy was your typical anti-metals a-hole, but he grew on me by the end of the video. Call him an atypical anti-metals a-hole.

As I see it, either the COMEX is either a gigantic fraud or else it's just a minor fraud like every other entity in the financial markets (in which case, we must face that we are currently chasing at least an intermediate bubble). I've heard good arguments for both cases, and time will tell. To paraphrase a Tool song "Wynter Benton won't you f#$%in whistle!!"

Louis Cypher said...

Hey thanks for the links. I haven't looked at the ZH based one yet.
Seems I need to re-evaluate my position on trading Silver to Gold in as we have already passed the first ratio I was going to trade in at.


Interesting I was just at my Mother in Laws and she was busy sorting through her old coins looking for silver. Just loose change and silver casino coins gathered over the years. She was wondering if she should cash in her couple of hundred dollars worth or wait a month for $50 or higher.
She was looking to take a cheap cruise.
I'll buy her casino stuff but I don't pay for "junk" silver. I prefer the free stuff :)
http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2011/03/free-silver.html

Warren said...

Thanks GrundleMaster - nice to have you back. Yep, I would say 'ongoing minor fraud'.

That was a good Yahoo Finance video. I don't give much credit to their focus on the SLV million-dollar bet. In a world where the fed is funnelling billions of dollars every month that episode just seems like a cheap scare tactic (to move the market wherever they wanted it to go that day).

Riding the silver bull is certainly tough - never before in my history have I managed to double my fiat accounting value in 8 months. I like Louis' idea of locking some profits in gold, and I now have plans for this. If every physical silverbug out there has the same ideas (of converting silver to gold) then the cartel has a problem - i.e. the flow of gold gets even more choked - significance of which is described by Fofoa here. Maybe this is a reason why the silver drum is being beaten - keep everyone away from physical gold just a bit longer (a theory I held which hasn't gone away). Maybe they don't care about 'losses' so long as they control the rate of participation.

Investor sentiment is certainly turning - this comment I read the other day, resonates with me:

"Yes, rationality and fact would be a pleasant respite from all these wildly speculative conspiracy theories. Can we, by working together and pooling what we know, try to form a clearer picture of the current status of the physical market?" Cathy @ fofoa 17-Apr-2011

Warren said...

And just a quick clarification on that - I don't mean that silver should not be treated as a wealth asset ... but simply that if the powers-that-be have planned for a gold revaluation because they make the rules, then even a surging silver might be simply a booby prize for the masses.

But of course their plans are undone if billions suddenly decide silver is a store of wealth they can hold outside the banking system.

My personal projections for silver is a slow + steady increase in price for the next 30+ years (i.e. boosted by all the fundamentals at each stage like peak silver, demand, currency dilution, but smoothed out over this time). I'm probably wrong.

Robert Leroy Parker said...

Hi folks,

No reply from Mish yet in regards to the treasury put article but he has always in the past so I am still hopeful of hearing his opinion.

@Louis

I tried the free silver with one box about a month ago and got zero so called it quits then and there.

@Warren

Projecting silver 30 years out is quite impossible imo.

Louis Cypher said...

GM,
Did you get one of the boxes with coins stacked one roll high or 2 high? The one roll high boxes usually turned out to be a complete waste of time for me.

Robert Leroy Parker said...

Hello Louis,

I think your last comment was meant to be addressed to me. I got a square box stacked two high, no silver unfortunately.

Mish replied to me stating he is skeptical but has sent the article to a colleague for further examination before he writes on the subject.

Louis Cypher said...

I stand corrected.
It'll be interesting to see Mish's response. If the puts end up in the money Fed will be forced to print a crap load of money just to pay the debt.

Louis Cypher said...

BTW Bix Weir has this http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/578.cfm

Worth a listen to for those of us thinking of trading in our silver for gold.

Warren James said...

[[ For anyone discovering this comments thread for the first time, please note that Trinity was debunked. The moral of the story is - be careful of what you read on the internet. While I consider myself a dupe for being roped in, the price calls were still pretty decent - always open to someone showing the way.

In my own revised opinion it would seem that silver trading is everything to do with charts, dollar and derivatives movements rather than anything fundamental about silver itself. See GM's great post on the relationship with the 10Y Treasury Note.
]]