The value of the value of a bond, Part 2

It's been a month since I posted a chart showing the 10 yr treasury yield measured in ounces of silver. To summarize: a steady, decade-long downward trend (black trend channel) became notably sharper in 2010 (purple trend channel).

The price action appears consistent with my predictions from a month ago: looks like we're seeing a sharp zig-zag movement towards the upper purple trend line, on course to happen sometime this summer. So, I'm betting silver will trend downwards, or sideways, for another month or two. If this ratio hits the upper purple line, that's when I'll anticipate silver's next leg up.

3 comments:

OC15 said...

Awesome work man.

Louis Cypher said...

Very nice GM.

Jeanne d'Arc said...

Not withstanding what I've said before about TA being a bit useless for silver at the moment, this chart is jolly convincing. Definitely not a buy signal...!

I'm really enjoying the big picture view you're sharing with us all on gold and silver at the moment. You have a real knack for isolating the core trends. Far superior to other sites I could (but won't) mention...