Nearly there?

Hello everyone.

2015 draws to a close, so I thought I'd try to emulate GM Jenkins with a few charts for you. I have found a whizzo new (free) charting site recently, which has enabled me to mess around with some very long term charts.

I'll kick off with a recreation of one of GM's that I know has interested a few of our readers, the ratio of the US 10 year treasury yield and silver, and how this signposts big turning points in the price of gold:

Not long now?
As we can see, the upper trend-line was touched and pierced back in the early summer, and more recently the ratio has moved even further outside of the trend-line. This is not unprecedented, as we saw a similar episode at the bottom of the channel from mid-2011 through to the end of 2013, when gold had its last bubble phase. Whilst the channel doesn't provide a precise timing for turns up or down in the gold price, it does appear to help identify the process of topping and bottoming for the gold price. My feeling is that the gold price has one final plunge ahead very shortly, before the trend reverses for a number of years.

This next two charts show where the gold price might find its support in the next 3-6 months:

Andrews Pitchfork starting in 1999

Here is the same pitchfork extended to a recent date:

These lines will intersect the gold price sooner or later, and there is also strong lateral support in the $950 to $1,000 range
Here's another interesting pitchfork chart from way back in the 70s, which proved to be relevant again more recently:

Down to the bottom then back to the top again?
Everything seems to line up with a move down for gold to around $950 within the next 6 months or so, and I'd guess it will be a sharp move down rather than a drift lower, a classic capitulative finale to a bear market, with weak-handed holders selling in volume. It would then be followed by a relatively swift rebound and the start of a good few years of a strong bull market.

This would coincide with a global recession and the broad markets entering a deep bear market. Here's a quick look at the crash of 1987:

Upper and lower trend-lines from the crash of 1987
Here's the Dow Jones again with those same trend-lines extended to today's prices:

Bubble, what bubble?
Interesting how those trend-lines seem to come into play decades later isn't it?

We appear to be heading to an imminent major turning point for many asset classes based on these charts.

Good luck.

Image result for prosimians


ssgtrader said...

As I said ... anything big will be in 2016

Alex in Montana said...


Care to elaborate - am interested in your thoughts. Jeremy Grantham of GMO LLC, a $100 billion dollar investing firm, has a two-sigma S&P 500 level of 2,250 that he thinks gets reached and exceeded to some extent (and I am paraphrasing) and then we get a big bear market after the 2016 election.

ssgtrader said...

Hi Alex, my guess is, we are so close to year end and since those big boys had managed to hold the market this well, it is likely that they will make this year an up year. S&P will likely end the year above 2050. So I feel any real action will start 2016, although today really looks shaky.

For S&P I think 2250 is too stretched, I think any attempt to re-test all time high is a good place to short. Maybe 2120 or even 2110 and above. Thanks for sharing your info. Maybe Jeremy wants to short at 2100-2120 so he tells everyone to aim 2250 ?

ssgtrader said...

clarifiction ... today looks shaky whether they would want to hold S&P above 2050.

AdvocatusDiaboli said...

Good morning Gary,

"Interesting how those trend-lines seem to come into play decades later isn't it?"

yes indeed, especially it is you, today, that decided to where to clip those lines in the past to fulfill your confirmation bias of today. But that's okay, its the working principle of TA to sell tea leaf predictions in newsletters. Anyway, becomes only dangerous once you start bullsh!tting yourself.
Greets, AD

Warren James said...

So time doesn't mellow - that answers that old riddle.

Christ AD, you miss one important point - not anyone who writes here, is selling anything. And, conversation is useful so long as the context is defined. Reason? Reality is not polarized despite what we wish to think.

Here's an exact primer on newsletters and blogging:
BUT, only applies to a content sale price of > $0.00

AdvocatusDiaboli said...

Hi Warren & Gray,
no, that was absolutely not my point, to insult or to allege somebody of something. Sorry in case it has been taken for that.
I just could not help, the presentation reminded me of that TA-BS that's all around. And even if you dont sell something for money to somebody, could it be that sometimes people tend to "sell" it at least to themself? ;)
Greets, AD

jonny49 said...

Hand on heart, on the long-term charts for the Dow and gold, I just drew the trendlines/pitchforks with the 70s/80s zoomed in to get them done accurately, and then I zoomed back out to the multi-decade view, and was surprised at the relevance of the lines.

All trendlines are broken eventually anyway, so these things are just an interesting item to consider, nothing more in my opinion.

Cha said...

What do you guys make of this article about the comex leverage ratio?

Warren James said...

My view .. I wish ...

(a) I had written that article.
(b) It had been written five years ago, would have saved me a lot of time researching the metals space.

I'm bias of course because I have infrequent dealings with Kid Dynamite, but I thought the skewering was well deserved.
Here we are at the end of 2015 and I make the following observations:

- The COMEX hasn't defaulted.
- USD has not hyper-inflated.
- There hasn't been a WTFUC event.
- Paper and Physical price have not separated.
- The bullion banks haven't defaulted.
- GLD has not run out of gold.
- Greece did not bring down the financial system.
- JPM is still humming along strong.
- The gold shorts haven't been crushed.

At what point do we give credit to the warnings of those who warn of such things? Just sayin'.

AdvocatusDiaboli said...

KD hit the nail on the head in the discussion below the post:

"the funny thing is that people think this is some sort of debate. there is no debate. THEY make up nonsense to try to deceive their readers."

I guess that sums it all up.

Cha said...

Thanks for your thoughts.

Grumps LaBastard said...

Another sign of a bottom. This guy was banging on the table bigtime about being long gold back in the day. And now like a clueless Etrade baby he's capitulated. He never understood the gold thesis.

Why Investing in Gold Sucks!

Grumps LaBastard said...

A preview of the USD standing:

"The CFETS, which is run by the central bank to facilitate interbank trading, published a new yuan index that is composed of 13 currencies, which will “help bring about a shift in how the public and the market observe RMB exchange rate movements,” the organization said. The dollar accounts for 26.4 percent of the basket, while the euro makes up 21.4 percent. The yen has a weighting of 14.7 percent."

Grumps LaBastard said...

"Looking at international experiences, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England all publish their own exchange rate indices, while intermediate institutions also publishes their indices. For example, the U.S. Dollar Index released by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has become a major index in the international market. Therefore, it is consistent with international practice that CFETS publishes its RMB exchange rate index. Since the beginning of 2015, the trend of this index has been relatively stable. The index is 102.93 on November 30th, appreciated 2.93% from the end of 2014. This shows that, even though RMB has depreciated against USD since the beginning of this year, it has appreciated modestly against a basket of currencies. Therefore, RMB is relatively a strong currency among the major international currencies."

Currency Pair Weight
USD/CNY 0.2640
EUR/CNY 0.2139
JPY/CNY 0.1468
HKD/CNY 0.0655
GBP/CNY 0.0386
AUD/CNY 0.0627
NZD/CNY 0.0065
SGD/CNY 0.0382
CHF/CNY 0.0151
CAD/CNY 0.0253
CNY/MYR 0.0467
CNY/RUB 0.0436
CNY/THB 0.0333

Grumps LaBastard said...

Shanghai Gold Exchange, gold fixing price of RMB will be launched in April next year

costata said...

Hi Warren,

I beg to differ with you somewhat on this point:

There hasn't been a WTFUC event.

IMO it isn't an event, it's a process and we are well into said process right now which I'll call GFC Part 2. Wiser folks than me have pointed out that liquidity problems (and even outright insolvency) can be covered up in a balance sheet for a long time (if the regulators are pliant) using devices such as mark-to-model. However, once those problems migrate to the P&L the problems can no longer be ignored. One crisis catalyst is "rollover risk". Look at what's happening in junk bonds and emergency corporate restructuring as discussed here:

World trade is falling off a cliff as depicted in freight rates and transportation capacity utilization. There is an epic US dollar shortage and roiling liquidity issues in Eurodollar and "Asiandollar" funding markets internationally that Jeffrey P. Snider of Alhambra Investment Partners has been blogging about prolifically. Emerging/developing nations such as Brazil are in crisis partially because of the problems Snider writes about - massive USD denominated debts and violent contraction in cash flows to service them (i.e trade and trade in commodities in particular).

As these international banks shrink their balance sheet exposure to US dollar loans it destroys that portion of the global USD money supply. This isn't a flow of "hot money" exiting emergency markets and going to some other market. A contraction in balance sheet money functions like a currency issuing central bank reducing the supply of a domestic currency. In other words a deflation as the classical economists defined it - a reduction in the supply of currency relative to demand - an under-supply. If you wanted to create a new Great(er?) Depression the current policies and the economic 'medicine' that's been prescribed would be ideally suited to the task.

IMO the debt-deflationists such as Steve Keen are being proved right (right now) while they think the figures on debt levels are showing that their anticipated deleveraging is not yet here. I think the problem is that they are looking at the numbers on an individual country level and/or on a currency zone basis. If you consolidate the global balance sheet and use the USD as the sole currency unit (subsuming domestic currencies into the USD pool) then the violent deleveraging that is unfolding becomes clear.

Long story short, my vote in your poll Warren is right here, right now.


Warren James said...

@costata ok, I'm with you, sorta. You're saying that the process has started - is the conclusion inescapable?

In my WTFUC definition I deliberately drew a clear boundary to exclude a GFC2 manifestation, but I'm interested to know what time-frames you're describing with your comment here. Perhaps you could join me to scope a 'financial event severity level index' similar to DEFCON.

Also wondering if you would consider the possibility that today's complex structures allow this stuff to play out in many different arenas? What I mean by that is the possibility the business cycle can be squeezed into different passageways so that the boom/bust effect gets directed into isolated areas (I may not have explained that properly but I can expound).

IMO, similar to Bullion Baron's property bubble discussion, we can only confirm some elements via rear-view mirror analysis. I don't enjoy flying blind but most of my previously-held economic predictions have been smashed to bits so not much choice.

costata said...

Hi Warren,

I took some licence in my response to your poll. I agree my donkey vote is outside your criteria.

"Also wondering if you would consider the possibility that today's complex structures allow this stuff to play out in many different arenas?"

I agree and the analytical challenges are immense IMO. I think that the boom/bust cycles operate differently than they did in earlier periods of economic history. By way of illustration in earlier times in developed countries we spent a much higher proportion of our incomes on food and clothing. These days it's something like <10%.

The manifestation of inflation/hyperinflation that classical economics describes is more easily seen in prices in emerging nations. I'm talking about the wheelbarrow of money for a loaf of bread. In recent years in China when people perceived that inflation was threatening to get out of control there were reports of people hoarding ginseng and other consumption goods. Classical economics tells us to look for these kinds of signs of a nascent hyperinflation. But we don't see that kind of thing anymore in countries with a welfare safety net such as food stamps.

In many (most?) Western countries housing has been reclassified from "shelter" a basic necessity like food to an "investment" in an "asset class". Real estate "booms" are celebrated rather than being seen as a social and economic disaster. This kind of distorted perspective is reflected in the way that indexes like CPI are constructed. It's a huge challenge to look through these constructs and apply sound economic theory and analysis. Ponzi schemes like the one that Bernie Madoff ran can persist for an amazing length of time but eventually they must come to an end. I think that's where we are at now.

I would be happy to help you construct some kind of "Defcon" indicator but I think we have run out of time Warren.

jonny49 said...

We're heading into another global recession, that much we can all agree on. The Kitchin cycle (inventories) will take us down now:

But it won't be the big one this time, although I do expect to see the ECB sorting out its banks (au revoir via resolution procedures to duff banks), and then to initiate its QE for physical gold at some point within the next few years.

Then the sovereign bond bubble starts to burst, and the process onward to Warren's WTFUC will gather pace.

I voted 2034, that's the end of Armstrong's private wave, and that's when we'll see USD collapse and a new global monetary system officially launched.

All along the way, gold will be carefully managed upwards by the CBs, Europe & China driving it. Gold will never be free to shoot to the moon whilst the central banks drive its price, so if one's worst nightmare is a slow, deliberate inflation, along with some defaults, you'll not look forward to the next 20 years much.

So many cases of premature prediculation in the past 20 years, no doubt many more to come.

jonny49 said...

My mate Marty sees the gold trend-lines too I reckon. Out with his usual sales patter again yesterday, this time it's a 'buy two, get none free' special offer. Have to admire his marketing skills and ability to avoid referring to his previous errors.

I do concur that gold will hit its final low in Q1 2016, I am holding some cash ready to deploy into a portfolio of junior miners as per Brent Cook's thoughts (I am going to subscribe to his service). I reckon the big miners will do 5x minimum in the next 3-4 years, well chosen juniors could do 10-20x. But just a small punt, with my physical gold sitting still in its vaults.

Good luck.

AdvocatusDiaboli said...

merry christmas to everyone.
regardless of all that "SHTF" talk&stuff, shall we have some peaceful holidays.
Greets, AD

jonny49 said...

Merry Christmas AD and to everyone connected with Screwtape.
Moroccan sun awaits me in a few days, and good times with some friends out there.
Muslim folk, just like other folk.

Grumps LaBastard said...

Grumps LaBastard said...

The US edition:

"Details of the fix are yet to be revealed, but sources say it would be derived from a contract traded on the bourse for a few minutes, with the SGE acting as the central counterparty.

A yuan fix would not be seen as an immediate threat to the gold pricing dominance of London and New York, but it could gain momentum if China's currency becomes fully convertible."

jonny49 said...

I'm sure the London market will survive for many more years, but happy days if it doesn't.
The more I read and think, the more sure I am that the BIS and central banks are trying to plot a course back to sanity, and will help to do so by managing the price of gold upward as and when required.
Nothing that can be criticised by politicians or the seething masses, all for sound monetary reasons.

Grumps LaBastard said...

"...Zong pointed out that in April this year, the new development bank project will be launched, will have a greater investment in infrastructure. He said: "This year is not necessarily a lot, but had a beginning means that play a role in the global infrastructure and related aspects of the new BRIC Development Bank may also bring a new concept of green addition, BRIC. new national development bank also make money in emerging countries to play a greater role in the global economy, and weaken the dollar hegemony."

April, mmmh interesting month.

"Library Kush gold, said the new development bank can promote settlement currency between the BRIC Member States, which can save money, increase trade, enhance the independence and reduce dependence on Western countries policies. He pointed out that the BRICS member countries are facing many problems, the new development bank is to provide funding for infrastructure building and sustainable development needs for the majority of developing countries, which will greatly promote the development of BRIC countries."

Grumps LaBastard said...

Notice how China is being touted as the "reformer" of the IMS.

Again, April. What's up with this month? Oi vey!

"...BRICS bank formally established, the formal establishment of the BRIC currencies repository is an important breakthrough BRICS financial cooperation, epoch-making significance." He explained, "BRICS banks have been actively preparing the first project in the BRIC and is expected to put into implementation in April."

Gold will shine, BRIC will not fade

ssgtrader said...

short term bottom .... mid term may re-test 1550

jonny49 said...

It seems everyone I read is calling this a short-term bottom.
Makes me wonder whether we go a fair bit lower immediately (1700), before a bounce. Need to see some panic before we bottom (temporarily) maybe?
I took a small short at midday Friday anyway, tight stop.

Muad'Grumps said...

And here we are! Just what Avery Goodman said would happen.

Counter-hegemonic, anti-monopoly! Analysis of Why China purchased a large number of secret global gold!

Desormais said...

Hi Warren,

Is the gold that is flowing back into GLD old bars or new bars ?

The meme was that the GLD out flow was through Switzerland for recasting and then onto China ?

This can't be the case if old bars are being moved from the other side of the warehouse again.



Warren James said...

Hi there Rob,

It's a good question and now with 12 large GLD additions it's prime time to dig out the answer. For what its worth, the historical background rate of 'old gold returning' has always averaged out at (approx.) 30% so it will be interesting to see what percentages are involved in 2016.

I'll try and get an article out on it in the next 7 days or so .. bear with me (got my hands full with moving house).

Warren James

Desormais said...

Thanks Warren.

It's also good to see that China may still be publishing their SGE withdrawals too, although on a monthly basis now instead of weekly.
225 tonnes for Jan 16.
It has to come from somewhere, doesn't it ?


Desormais said...

19.33t added on Friday and then another 19.33t added on the Monday.
This is bizarre.

Who can just cough up 38t of physical ?

jdsquicktrader said...

How about Venezuela. Isn't that the amount they were forced cough up last week. I'm sure its a coincidence, but who knows.

James said...

I keep checking this blog every day. Would love to see an update. Gold looks like it's going to reverse here based on COTs and technicals.

jdsquicktrader said...

I was thinking the same thing Ryan, but it just feels different this time. (famous last words)

The fact that gold miners aren't breaking down is still a good sign. We haven't seen a rally like this in a long time. If the price of the miners can bounce off the moving averages I will be super impressed.

AdvocatusDiaboli said...

talkin about gold, why not check the latest news on oil?:

Rockefeller Fund says:
"it makes little sense—financially or ethically—to continue holding investments in these companies."
"...the Board has instructed its advisors, effective immediately, to eliminate holdings of ExxonMobil, and all coal, and tar sands-based companies"

Sorry, can somebody take the time to explain to me, why the whole world goes completely insane? Have even the Rockefellers gone completely nuts?
Why the hell do they think, that if selling their shares in oil business changes the slightest thing on earth? (BTW: Exxon balance sheet looks not really bad)
It is basically if I sell my shares in Rheinmetall (great german weapon manufacturer:D ) to e.g. some Saudi family, therefore no more weapons will be made and there will be suddenly peace on earth... How more stupid can the world get?

Greets, AD

jonny49 said...

AD, I'm sure you realise the Rockefellers are anti-human, they are making a political statement, although most won't grasp its cloak of environmentalism is hiding anti-humanity wishes.
Yeah, mad as fuck, the more I see and read every day the more mad I see it gets, and we have such a long way to go before we reach the bottom yet.
My sole overriding concern (of a personal nature) is where to live from 2020 onward, and where to store my physical gold.
All the other stuff is FUBAR.
Hence I'm losing interest in short-term gold price movements, sorry readers.

AdvocatusDiaboli said...

Good morning Gary,
"... they are (anti-human) making a political statement..."
yes, that's also my assumption. Still: 1.) Who cares about that statement at all anyway? The "political class"? Do they say, "ohhh, Rockefeller sold his Exxon stuff therefore...."? Really? The rest of the democratical mob, did they even notice such statement?
2.) Even if somebody of 1. listen to the statement at all anyway, doesnt Rockefeller care how ridiculous his renders himself with such a statement, regardless if somebody wants to follow the environmentalist reasoning or not?

I mean, if Rockefeller really wants to make a change (even in terms of being anti-human like you pointed out), why doesnt he just shut down Exxon and dedicates all the earlier drilling land to national parks etc.? That would make a change, everything else is just bullshit.
Greets, AD

P.S. Where to live from 2020 onward... arent you the dude, who is so much in love with the EU? Congrats, might be the next islamic socialist republic, isnt that, what you have been looking for?

jonny49 said...

Thanks for the congratulations AD, but they're misdirected. Perhaps look at your Mutti for someone to blame.
Me, I love the euro currency setup, and the fact that it will bring banks and govts and the EU down to size, assuming it survives the turmoil ahead.
But yes, Europe is repeating the mistake of many liberal zones, and
western civilisation is in peril, Islam, Marxism, all of it the same anti-human agenda as the Rockefellers.

AdvocatusDiaboli said...

Good morning Gary,
"Perhaps look at your Mutti for someone to blame."
yes, Gary, that's how democracy works: the biggest dumbasses vote for the biggest psychopaths.
But let's look at the other hand: Selfbalancing justice. "Mutti" with 2/3(?) of the voters invited and celebrated the scum of the world to have a free lunch. The very same scum they imported is now raping, robbing, stealing and killing them. So statistically at least 2/3 of the victims get what they deserve.
So whenever I read about a terror bombing attack, a mass raping and vandalism, I say to myself with a smile "yes dear majority, you get what you deserve" (for the 1/3 minority of the victims that's what you call collateral damage, sorry).
Greets, AD

"the euro will bring banks and govts and the EU down" Let me check Gary... oh wait, 2yrs italian and even 5yrs french gov bonds are in negative territory on SuperMarios QE. Now he also wants to progresses on some TARP buying private (banks&industry) bonds. Is it that what you mean by bringing it down?

jonny49 said...

The ECB is just biding its time AD.
I recognise that its current actions can give the appearance its the same as the other central banks, but it is playing the long game, and it can't afford to be blamed for ANY of what lies ahead (sovereign defaults and bank failures), so it will do all sorts of pointless QEing and just wait for it all to collapse due to market forces.
That's what I see, time will prove everything, one way of another, so I'll comment no more for now.

James said...

I would love a new post even if it's just to update your usual bevy of charts. Want to hear your opinion here. Do you believe it's different this time and if not, why shouldn't prices correct significantly here with COT bullish at an all time high?

Slow Loris said...


Despite all of the ballyhoo from certain quarters, the current COT structure can persist for a considerable time (months in fact) while the precious metal prices are in a bull market.

Subscribe to Steve Saville's 'Speculative Investor' for what I regard as the most thorough and most insightful commentary on market issues, where this was explained recently.

Slow Loris Larry

Cha said...

For the TNX:SILVER junkies, here is a live 15 year chart$TNX:$SILVER&p=D&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73322876078&a=432568204&listNum=17

James said...

No new posts for so many months. Would love some fresh analysis at this pivot.

Alan2102 said...

What's new?

Unknown said...

Are we there yet?

Cha said...

TNX:Silver 0.95 looking pretty good.

AdvocatusDiaboli said...

Dear Tommies,

congratulations for choosing selfdetermination instead of being ruled by dumbasses like Martin Schulz&Co.
Greets, AD

Warren James said...

I second the sentiment expressed here by AD.
Well done, Britain for standing up for yourself.

jonny49 said...

We are there, GM's indicator marked the turn for the gold price.
My next plan is to separate the UK into individual nations. Shouldn't be difficult.
I wonder if the Euro currency can somehow survive a full EU collapse. Seems unlikely.

Anonymous said...

Hey guys, what's up? All of you asleep?

And this when GLD's inventory drawdown ended on Dec 17, 2015, to gain 350 tonnes in 2016 so far? When, as Warren informally said, almost all bars added are newly minted and haven't been seen in GLD before? When the GLD inventory low and the ratification by Congress of the IMF governance and quota reform on Dec 18, 2015, coincide up to *one* business day?

When during the first quarter of 2016, the Bank of England appears as a sub-custodian of GLD for the very first time? (up to 29 tonnes).

Hey, I at least want to see a discussion of GLD inventory, the bar lists, and some recent charts of 10y interest rates in ounces of silver.



jonny49 said...

Victor returns with rationalisations of rationalisations. Chasing his tail must have made him so dizzy.
Next up he'll be attributing the flying gold miners to buying by the SNB, or was that dear old Uncle Deluded? Both.

Warren James said...

Hi Victor,

Apologies for the absence - lots of factors have played a part in preventing any new blog posts recently.

The good news is that I've setup some new server equipment and nearly ready again to begin analysis. We'll have a much larger sample period now, so it will be interesting to see which patterns are consistent!!

I'm pleased to see that Ronan has basically shown that some bank of England bars have shown up in GLD, so I'm keen to isolate which ones they might be.

Overall the good news is that the surge in GLD will help reveal even more of the London dark pool.

I don't have an ETA on delivery, apologies, but be assured I'm working on it.

cheers & beers,
Warren James
Screwtape Files

Grumps LaBastard said...

Gary, did you catch the latest from Rambus? About it looks like the miners will outperform gold by a factor of 3.5?

I can't wait for Captain Hook to resuscitate his old HUI:Gold:Dow reaching unity theory.

Some of these moves made by the miners are simply astounding. Four-five fold!

Clara Mellor said...

Gold prices trend weaker in Asia with Fed rate hike timing in focus. capitalstars

The Jackalope said...

Guys! Bring this blog back to life!

Grumps LaBastard said...

Did the Chinese just do a big debt for equity swap today?

costata said...


Can you provide a link to an article about the "debt for equity swap" you are referring to?


Grumps LaBastard said...

No link. Just thinking out loud. Everything's saying the markets didn't crash mesmerized by the Dow. But a market did crash---the bond market and EM currencies! And look at the POG in EM currencies. Spiking.

What I mean by a debt for equity swap is did China sloppy sell USTs to buy US stocks in anticipation of Trump capital restrictions?

costata said...

Thanks for replying Grumps.

Grumps LaBastard said...

You guys see this? What's happening with the spread between the SGE and Comex?