Quick update. I pointed out last week that I'd be surprised if the weekly euro-gold chart, which was right at a critical trend line, broke down. It didn't.
That's allowing me to interpret the weeks ambiguous action in dollar-gold more charitably. Here's an old daily one. Note the 144-day moving average is now resistance, and price is sandwiched between it and the final trend line of the steep post-2009 move:
The gold monthly chart (going back all the way to early 2001) shows how atypical the past several months have been. For the entirety of this trend upwards, there hadn't been more than 2 red months in a row. Even during the cataclysmic seeming action of mid-2008. Now we've begun the fourth red month. Still, the monthly drop has been very controlled. Also note that there have been two instances of 5 out of 8 months red. Both marked very important bottoms. Well, 5 of the last 8 months have been red.
No, silver won't drop to $15 (barring some cataclysmically deflationary event) but I want nothing to do with trading it until I get some clues which way it's headed. Of course, gold will almost certainly follow. Patience here is warranted.