As a licensed practitioner of chartistry, I find boring seminars to be a great source of inspiration. The great thing is that other people in the room see me manically working on this stuff and think I'm doing something urgent and serious.
So, first I set out to make the most pessimistic silver chart possible, assuming silver will maintain its bullish secular trend. Here's what I came up with.
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The parabolic move of 2011 and the crash of 2008 create a nice symmetry around the center channel. We're right at the center line.
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Then, given that the descending trend line from the April 2011 peak fits the ensuing highs so perfectly (on the log chart), I set out to draw a perfectly symmetric wedge. So I took the reflection of that trend line over the horizontal axis, and lo! it fit the climb up since 2009 pretty damn well. It also made for a decent channel.
However, I like all of the important peaks and valleys to be accounted for, and though most were, the local minimum of July 2011 was not. So I set out to create another trend channel that didn't leave that one hanging. (TA is best done when all these lines and channels are superimposed on one graph, but the unwieldiness thereof offends my chartistic principles).
These wedges can stay alive for another month or more, but only if silver jumps up a dollar or two very soon. Clearly, there's very little slack down. One bad day and the bottom of that wide descending channel (which began to take shape exactly a year ago) will beckon. In short, silver has to shit or get off the pot.
4 comments:
I have bad news, I think the odds favor silver taking a shit. Take a gander at copper, for example,
(admittedly I'm operating in a reductive way) no es bueno. The industrial commodities sector appears quite vulnerable, because the global economy seems to heading back into recession. Not that it ever left it, but that's another story. In any case, "risk on" markets appear to be topping.
Very possible, Edwardo. A drop below $25 definitely looks "due" on that first chart. But then gold would almost certainly have to drop sharply as well (have g&s prices ever not correlated at big pivot points?). I see that as less likely, both technically and with respect to fundamentals, which is why I remain cautiously optimistic. On the other hand can silver pop to the upside in the next week or so without some news/ event? It's not gonna be QE3.
Well, as I'm sure you know, very strange things can happen, and for that reason alone, many outcomes can't be ruled out. For me, these days, I'm much less bothered by the squiggles on the charts, at least where gold is concerned, because my view is that, by hook or by crook, gold will be revalued, probably officially, within the next few years.
Chartistry sounds like sophistry LOL ;)
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