|August and September 2011, clearly showing that the inventory from|
the big million-ounce removals were actually returned to the GLD
inventory at a later date.
What I've tried to cobble together here is the relationship between price and inventory, with the price offset by 3 days to try and match the trade+settlement lag (of 3 days). At this low level, showing just 2 months worth of data on the screen, the weekends and days become significant. Here's the same graph, but showing the limit of our resolution - with each column representing a bar list document that we have processed, which may reveal a bit more detail compared with the stacked area chart.
|Same graph for August + September 2011, but with stacked column,|
to show the source data better. A full 5-column stack represents one
bar list for every day of the week. Sometimes we don't see a new
bar list issued every day.
The main take-away point here is that with both of those steep inventory declines in August 2011, most of the bullion removed was actually returned at a later date. I find it interesting that the overall amount of metal in the vault didn't change a whole lot during this time and if we ever get a substantial uptick in the GLD inventory in 2013, we may be able to do the same kind of dark bullion identification for the 'shedding inventory' (but until we get more bars added we won't have that critical 2nd piece of info). This particular trough formation is unique, we don't see enough volatility in the data to see anything similar elsewhere.
As we move towards better charts we might be able to visualize the exact entry and exit points of each bar, but it still remains a challenge to display that kind of information density. Unfortunately the low percentages of dark bullion means we've found no specific correlation just yet. Additionally, the annoying time lag involved (because we need two points to prove a bar was dark) limits any ground-breaking analysis on a short time frame. That's all for the minute as I've got a lot of data to check. There's a lot of ways to slice and dice this data.
----- updated: 2013 June 02. VtC asked for confirmation about the time lag between trade settlement and bar list information. Just for the record, we typically get GLD trade information from this spreadsheet, while the bar list PDF (settlement) is here. We took the time in May to chart the relationship between the bar list totals (for Fine Oz) vs. the inventory specified in the spreadsheet, this is what it looks like:
|GLD time lag between CSV and PDF (@17th May 2013)|