I was expecting a large percentage of the add event to be from gold bars previously seen in the inventory (dark bullion). I wasn't disappointed. 487 bars were previously dark ... i.e. 23% new, 73% old.
The 181 bars which were 'new' were branded Johnson Matthey -> this is no surprise because the vault generally contains up to 25% JM bars, but also worth noting, none of the serial numbers on these bars are in the high end of the Johnson Matthey Sequence which means they are actually 'old' bars (in our classification index: " new cold bullion"), or in other words the 'new' gold did not come from a shiny new delivery from Johnson Matthey > it came from existing stock.
Similar to other recent additions, the 487 bars which were previously dark also have a dark history. Just to recap, a 'dark history' event is recorded for a bar if it disappears and reappears on the bar list at a later time - the current record is 4 times for GLD stock. You can see below, the speckled history of this bullion.
There is currently no sign of my predicted bars to return, but that's okay there's still another two months before that prediction is invalidated.
So those are just observations, what does it mean (if anything)? On the surface, the notion of 'regularly returning bullion' would seem to indicate some kind of 'ownership' BUT this seems unlikely, it is more just a statistic which you would expect similar to a maths question : 'x red and y blue marbles drawn are from the bag at random then x% are added back ...'. This is the most likely explanation since although the add event was quite large, we are still only talking a really tiny percentage of the GLD peak inventory which occurred on 27th December 2012 at 109,318 gold bars (current holdings 62,928).
What can be said is that the entire addition was from old stock, so I just want to point out in a random sample from [ Unknown Stock + 46,390 missing bars], there is still enough gold in the vault background to introduce 181 bars that we've never seen before, so the unknown stock levels (vault, london, etc) are a lot higher than most will give credit for.
Some readers may know that I'm attempting to establish some theory around 'how the fraud works'. I still think the whole modern financial sector is fraudulent by nature and I have no doubt that manipulation exists but I just don't think it exists in the manner described by the other silver and gold blogs. I offer the following suggestion:
Consider the last week's events from the perspective of one of the Authorized Participants. An entity had ownership of some 269,902 oz (gross) of gold and for whatever reason they wanted to create some GLD shares. We presume they sold these on, and at some point in the future they will buy some back. Answer the following question given the week's price action : Was this arrangement was good for (a) the Authorized Participant or (b) the holders of GLD shares (including the newly issued ones)? Regardless of the order of cause and effect in this situation, it's just another shining example of how these guys have the game stitched up nicely.
Be careful out there,