Sorry for my inactivity of late -- to give you an idea of how busy I've been, I thought today was Friday and printed out a bunch of weekly charts for you. So hopefully nothing too crazy will happen tomorrow after today's fireworks, to render these obsolete.
I've also been too busy to trade. And as luck would have it ... I missed a few obvious long opportunities based on my own damn charts. Hopefully I helped someone make money this week??
E.g. last Friday, turns out there was a reversal on the 3-line break chart I beat to death every week, as a proxy for when an intermediate term bull cycle begins. Another bar has been added since, and should remain there tomorrow to close the week.
I hope I've made some believers in these charts. Note how my silver proxy chart below (GLD:GDXJ) never confirmed the bearish reversal of the gold proxy chart above (DOW:GDXJ). I had mentioned I wouldn't go short until it did so. And in fact now it's very close to adding a new red (silver-bullish) bar.
Then, there was my previous post, ("Important chart") ... Sure enough, silver broke through that important trend line days ago (as I now note commenter Fix the System tried to apprise me of, to no avail. Thanks though!). Luckily, someone did make money by means of this chart. Our good friend "David P. out of Europe", who posted it on King World News on Tuesday
I'm pretty confident what happened today isn't stage 1 of the big moonshot every gold bug is waiting for (myself included). I still would bet that we haven't seen the final lows in either gold or silver. Looking at my monthly chart, we may be headed back to the MA-ribbon at $1400, but that should be it for awhile.
Such a move would become quite likely if the 300-day MA can be emphatically cracked, ideally to close the week tomorrow. That's my new point to go long (see black curve below)
A good sign is this breakout in the Gold in Swiss Francs chart
However, as of yet gold is only where I've speculated it would be for months now: back at the blue downtrend line on the monthly chart below. Now if that can be broken to the upside -- and gold just needs another strong up day to do so, more or less -- that might mean this rally will not be another boring short-covering one shot deal, as we've seen so often
Such a move would probably take gold through $1335, meaning this important channel would be broken (MA here is the 144-day)
Then the $1390 level would look likely -- as seen on this weekly chart with the 89-week and 78-week (1.5 yr) MAs
I'll try to have more silver charts for you next time, but here's an old Kagi chart where you can see that clearing $22.15 would be huge.
My correlation charts, for those keeping score, proved effective. Not that it helped me, but I'll probably try to consider correlation outliers more often henceforth.
First the Canadian dollar/gold chart. Note: I'd be very wary of being long gold if/when the Canadian dollar hits the blue trend line again. . .
Finally, another local min/max was predicted by this one, the gold vs. TIPS.
Alright, that's it for now -- till next time!