For what it's worth, I still think there is scope for the bars to return - a large increase in inventory will undoubtedly result in a number of 'previously lost' bars to be rediscovered, but in retrospect I should have picked an easier target, for example it would have been more accurate to predict bars which were 'most likely' to return given their history - the record is now 5 times for some GLD bars (meaning they have disappeared and reappeared back on the GLD ledger five times). I hope there is some novelty value in a blogger stating publicly 'I was wrong about my prediction', you won't often see it in the precious metals space.
The larger question still remains regarding the significance of certain bars swimming on and off the ledger (my term: "dark bullion"). Being 100% measurable, there is no debate the effect exists but the reasons behind why it occurs and what significance it holds is in question. The tally of bars ever seen on the GLD ledger stands at 154,182 gold bars (currently visible 64,263), which gives you an idea of the amounts of gold in the London system. I am now of the opinion that the returning dark bullion we see is coincidental, i.e. the bars which 'disappear and re-appear' regularly - do so because in such a large sample you will get some bars which will show up again. And in such a model, a prediction like mine SHOULD fail. We'll keep running tests and see where this ends up BUT so far it's leading to proof of being no link between specific inventory and price (not a conclusion I wanted).
Science is built on failures so this can still be counted as a progression ;p I have been doing more work on the data which I'll share later but I am also using this post to launch a new resource public which will be a permanent feature on the Bullion Bars Database page. Basically it's a public spreadsheet (updated occasionally) which contains a dump of all the bar records from our database, updated in the cloud. This holds every signature we've ever seen for Gold (over 250,000), along with their last known location. Any suggestions on how to make the spreadsheet better, are most welcome. The goal of publishing this is to make the data more accessible to independent researchers who might want to answer easy questions like where is bar ZJ6752 or how many Russian or Chinese bars are known. You'll need Excel 2007 or higher (or equivalent) to view the file.