NOTE: Page 2 is now closed ! Please use Page 3 , which is the next page in the discussion.
It is intended that those holding relevant views that they wish to communicate to readers of this site will take full advantage of this innovation. Those who persist in posting comments related to this dedicated space on other STFU threads will have their comments relocated to these pages, for the benefit of those keenly interested in the topics. The current plan is to review the content from each discussion sprint, and summarize the best (and worst) parts for inclusion as the nucleus of the next thread.
Previous Discussion: Freegold Debated by SMRI
What started originally as SomanyRoadsInvesting expressing his disappointment in the Freegold promise, turned out to be a good discussion with contributions from Bron Suchecki, Michael H and (the devil himself) AdvocatusDiaboli. Main points:
- Similarity of FOFOA's group to cults (with religious allegories by Duggo)
- Common desire to see the Freegold thesis thoroughly tested.
- Bron's discussion of Freebanking.
- Whether or not physical and paper will ever decouple.
With the very large correction in the price of gold during the first half of 2013, the question rages about whether this is the decoupling event talked about by the Freegold folk, where the paper price goes to zero prior to the repricing event. FOFOA upped-the-ante with an article titled 'Oh nooo!!! Gold so low!' which sparked a wide range or responses, many of which unfortunately ended up on our main Screwtape Files articles this month, which have now been moved to this page. In doing the editing exercise I was amazed at how much crap there was, and to be honest, the articles and discussions now have a breath of fresh air, as Jeanne has just duly noted. Please note, on the initial launch of this (page 2) the comments were not enabled, that was not intentional and functionality has been restored. However there is so much content here that I'll probably start Page 3 shortly.
Best regards, Warren
The following items were moved here from July 2013 metals preview.
I note over at FOFOA (he still sends me emails) that it's "game on" for Freegold imminently. The ECB holds the key.
Should be interesting days ahead.
So ditch the charts and get the real stuff. Now!
Sun Jun 30, 10:08:00 AM GMT+1
Stuart Unger said...
Duggos unseemly FOFOA fetish continues unabated.
Sun Jun 30, 04:44:00 PM GMT+1
I don't think his comment was due to his FOfetish.
I think he forgot that he prob subscribed to be alerted every time FOFOA creates a new post. I get the same emails from the different sites that I follow.
Unless of course FOFOA did personally email him which would be a little strange, & just a tad more unlikely :)
Sun Jun 30, 04:53:00 PM GMT+1
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator. (relocated to sin bin article)
Sun Jun 30, 05:58:00 PM GMT+1
Slow Loris Larry said...
Gee, i REALLY wish that there was some polite but effective way to cleanse this site of all the mud-slinging, pro and con, concerning FOFOA, et. al.
Warren has tried hinting about it, but to no avail.
Perhaps we could start a devoted FOFOA thread each week, and then let someone who would agree to take the time divert all postings that would pollute the blog with FOFOA references to that purgatory?
Mon Jul 01, 02:00:00 AM GMT+1
Ah yes! The smack of censorship. You can't beat it.
FOFOA does this sort of thing quiet effectively. OOPS! mentioned the dreaded five letter word.
Freedom of speech does have it's downsides but it's usually worth the aggro.
Screwtapes is a site that has interesting topics (now and then). Many do not achieve a proliferation of "comments". So the odd banter can help fill the space.
Perhaps we could have a list of "authorised" subjects just to keep me on the straight and narrow.
Mon Jul 01, 08:33:00 AM GMT+1
That is unfair Duggo, you should apologise.
I agee the freegold/fofoa issue is mentioned here a lot, I plead guilty to that too.
But there is crossover in subject matter, and posting is a bit quiet here of late, so perhaps to be expected.
Mon Jul 01, 03:33:00 PM GMT+1
Apologise to whom? FOFOA? He has censorship.
Slow Loris Larry? Sounds very much like a polite entreaty for "self censorship". This is how the controlled mainstream media coerce their correspondents into looking the other way when their masters interests are in danger.
OK if you don't want pithy comments. Just say so.
FOFOA writes a recent article which is relevant to precious metals and it seems you are not allowed to mention it .
My next comment will be about knitting. It shouldn't be too controversial.
Mon Jul 01, 04:40:00 PM GMT+1
Don't know if this is welcome here of not. I will self identify as a Freegolder and FOFOA follower. And I have no desire to enter discussions with those that have found solace here in the wake of FOFOA exile.
In short, to call a bottom in this paper gold market is the equivalent of calling for a revival of the patient; a patient who's symptoms bear the marks of death throws.
For what has fundamentally changed within the economy and the marketplace relative to the very beginnings of this bull run?
Nothing, except 1) the perception of paper gold instruments vs physical gold by controlling interests in aggregate and 2) support for paper gold by both those that have known and those that are learning.
Now if you are calling for a revival of this patient, I wonder what exactly it is that will revive it? A transfusion? A heart transplant? How do you get the cat back in the bag, when it now knows what it knows? I don't think you can.
The only long shot would be support from a source as yet untapped - the unwashed masses. But are they more likely to buy paper or physical?
I will say that I think it is possible we will see one last push (although it is usually smart money that starts such things and then bails at the peak of the mania phase). So this would have to be dumb smart money. Dumb enough to think paper will revive and drawing in the masses; smart enough to get out right when the price is being catapulted by the masses.
We could get a kick start from a Bernank announcement or maybe even if war broke out.
Either way, the patient has little to no chance of long term recovery. This bull run is on its death bed. Only question is if it will just die or give us head fake and die.
Tue Jul 02, 08:35:00 PM GMT+1
One of the greatest strength of Screwtapes is that people like you and me are allowed to waffle on about whatever we like. This is not so on your totally controlled FOFOA site. (OOPS I dropped a stitch from my knitting).
Dear Nickelsaver don't you feel a little embarrassed that you are an advocate for an Orwellian mentality that seeks to control argument by exclusion? I own a good deal of Gold but I must say I'm not praying for Freegold. The tsunami it will cause may be devastating for ordinary people. The mentality of the Freegolders is to be right what ever the cost.
Tue Jul 02, 09:02:00 PM GMT+1
You have to love freegolders that turn, make all sorts of totally unsubstantiated claims about paper gold, but 'have no wish to enter into discussions'. So scared of the light....
I imagine meetings of the Scientologists are much like that, or the Moonies.
He mentioned 1) and 2) spurious reasons, he forgot number 3): The Hobbit movies are out now!!
Classic freegolder nonsense.
Tue Jul 02, 10:16:00 PM GMT+1
Hello Time Proven.
Those posts of yours are the best thing I've read on this blog for a long long time, thank you for sharing your Thoughts!
If you find the reception a little hostile here, please feel free to come and chat with a more open-minded crowd over at Screwtapes File blog.
So I guess if Time Proven were to say paper gold is toast, it would be accept as remarkable. But if I say it, it is "Classic freegolder nonsense"?
hey, what do you know, Time Proven in fact did say as much...
"Paper gold begins its journey to become a highly discounted side market to this true worldwide physical market. The run on paper gold has now begun! The next political step to look for? When the ECB marks to the new physical gold price!"
I'm pretty sure that validates the assertions of some others that you are in fact a "Mommy Dearest" gato loco!
You have my condolences
Wed Jul 03, 12:58:00 AM GMT+1
Bron Suchecki said...
In 2008 I remember FOFOA getting excited about the shortages and whatnot, feeling it may be "it". I disagreed as I wasn't seeing any stress it the wholesale markets.
Seems like the same again in 2013, and I have the same view again. Paper will only disconnect if the large holders/traders of unallocated refuse to do so. I don't see signs of that happening, at least from where I sit, which is admittedly not the entire gold market.
My view is bullion banking runs like a freebanking system and thus likely to be more robust than many think, and thus it will take a few more "cycles" of hope then fear to cause a real run.
Relying on the hype/ exaggeration/ misinformation of newsletter writers and gold bar/coin sellers for one's signals of whether the system is unravelling is not wise.
Wed Jul 03, 10:06:00 AM GMT+1
Slow Loris Larry said...
I am the one who removed the comment by 'duggo', above.
My reasons, along with the offending comment, can be found @ http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2013/07/sin-bin.html
Any comments on this action should be posted on that thread, not this one, and any appearing here will be removed to that URL.
If anyone wants to communicate with me personally on this matter, they may do so at SlowLorisLarry@fastmail.com.au.
But don't expect a quick answer, as I don't check that email address all that regularly.
Wed Jul 03, 11:07:00 AM GMT+1
Freegolders make the same mistake over and over, starting with Another/FOA back in the day, and continued annually by Fofoa more recently:
premature expectations of impending freegold.
'Paper gold begins its journey to become a highly discounted side market to this true worldwide physical market'
He doesn't say 'it's happening this year', he doesn't give a timeframe. If he did, he'd be demonstrating the same premature excitement we see from freegolders today.
It could well happen in the next 2-3 years, coinciding with banking stress in Europe and a global economic collapse.
Nope, this is not the droid you are looking for stormtrooper!
Wed Jul 03, 11:44:00 AM GMT+1
------------------------------ These comments were from "Sunday pre-game 6/23/2013". it's worth noting that we know who 'Time Proven' is, and it isn't Another or FOA, so the comments should be read in this context. Please note that some of the taunting by the freegolders was not particularly useful or sporting.
Fri Jun 28, 06:49:00 PM GMT+1
So I don't miss any awesome comments from Time Proven.
Assuming he posts here.
Fri Jun 28, 11:10:00 PM GMT+1
A poster by the handle 'Time Proven' has posited over at Fofoa's that the separation of physical/paper gold is being driven by the ECB.
I won't copy his post here, but he suggests that when the Euro banks need sorting out, the Cyprus model will be used. Debtors will suffer!
Amongst those debtors will be those holding a paper gold debt with a bank, i.e. unallocated paper gold.
It sounds like a great plan to me, and entirely plausible too, and if there is a BIS/ECB masterplan, this would fit in nicely near the end, driving paper down and physical up, with the ECB eventually switching its valuation to the physical price.
Interestingly very little comment from the blog followers over there, because the poster has somewhat given the impression he may be FOA!
Actually, the reaction has been mostly to chastise the guy and berate him for his impudence. The cult followers are a strange lot, they ignore a great piece of insight (that no one else has mentioned anywhere to my knowledge) and focus on bashing the poor guy. Some of them have no idea how small-minded and slavish they have become, more interested in posting amusing (to them) put-downs than debating the issues. They'd rather chase debate away these days.
Anyhow, we should perhaps encourage Time Proven to post here too, maybe he's the real deal?
No offence to our Tony, we know that there are many decent & considerate freegold followers too. ;)
Sat Jun 29, 11:07:00 AM GMT+1
Yes sugar lover, time proven sure is one smart dude. Maybe we'll get to the bottom of the whole Freegold charade, right?
Sat Jun 29, 02:37:00 PM GMT+1
gary wales said...
I think time proven might be Another or FOA. He sure seems like he knows his stuff.
I see another freegolder taunting our own Sugar Lover...just ignore them. They are fools.
Sat Jun 29, 02:41:00 PM GMT+1
Who taunted Sugar lover over here?
I only know one Freegolder who is in fact the fool. And he is rather motley too.
If in fact Time Proven is FOA/ANOTHER, then he can certainly clear up the Freegold debate, right?
I mean you (gary wales) just wrote,
"I think time proven might be Another or FOA."
And since there is no way that Sugar Lover is Time Proven, how is saying that Time Proven is "one smart dude" over here at STFU a taunt?
Sat Jun 29, 02:59:00 PM GMT+1
Another and FOA were smart dudes too, were they not? Time Proven's suggestion (irrespective of who he is) provided a line of thought that no one else has deduced to date, another piece of the jigsaw for the 'how' this event unfolds. I am interested to see what other insights he might share in due course. And yet all you blather on about is nonsense regarding his identity? Well, if that is what is important to you my good man, please carry on.
Plenty of people around (or perhaps no longer around) who can see where this all leads, but just don't happen to buy the whole fluffy Fofoa thesis. You seem to be in the 'all or nothing' camp, and deep down the rabbit hole too, so I don't expect you to appreciate any more nuanced views, nor will I waste my time communicating with you in future.
Sat Jun 29, 03:05:00 PM GMT+1
gary wales said...
Yes! What sugar says! Nuance is to a freegolder as playing naked with my kitty is to sanity.
Sat Jun 29, 03:32:00 PM GMT+1
Warren James said...
Time Proven needs to be aware that we can sniff out his identity in a minute, if he shows up here purporting insider knowledge or otherwise. We here at Screwtape Files are a bit wary after the whole Wynter Benton thing so we have large motivation to uncover truths which may exist. Just sayin'.
Sat Jun 29, 03:37:00 PM GMT+1
does gary wales smell of haggis perchance?
Sat Jun 29, 03:48:00 PM GMT+1
Warren James said...
Not all cards are yet played.
Sat Jun 29, 04:01:00 PM GMT+1
There are lots of smart people in the world.
Not a single one of them go to the comment section of FOFOA’ blog pretending to be ANOTHER or FOA to present their contribution to the debate. But since it appears TP has backed away from that line of attack, maybe he has figured it out too.
As to what he wrote, yes, I agree that Cyprus was a game changer & have stated so (as have many others). Yes, the physical gold advocate who understands exactly what a paper gold market is for, understands the potential implications of what we are seeing right now.
None of that changes the fact that TP (whoever this wonderfully mysterious personage is) tried to lend credence to his claims by mimicking the writing style of ANOTHER.
As to whether or not, I am in the “All or nothing camp”, let me quote, well me,
“I am desperately seeking some logical argument to unseat the logic in Freegold.
Since I think Freegold is a very elegant theory that makes a whole lot of sense, I am constantly trying to disprove it. Call me the doubting Thomas of Freegold :)…”
”I think you are forgetting about some very key concepts. I submit FOFOA would be the 1st to point these out:
Freegold is NOT about FOFOA's blog. Nor is it about him maintaining an income writing about it.
If you need to sell your timeless wealth preserve to meet current income needs, then you are not a giant or a saver.
FOFOA is a shrimp. I suspect you are a shrimp. I know I am a shrimp.
That's why I am not
at the ALL Inn.
While I think that Freegold is the most elegant theory explaining what is happening (philosophically speaking) it is a theory. I don’t agree with everything that FOFOA writes simply because he writes it. I do agree with the vast majority of his take on things because it makes sense. If that precludes me from not understanding nuance or subtlety in your world(s), then so be it.
I do consider myself a FOFOA supporter in that I support him financially because I value what he has to offer to the debate & I would like to see his writings continue. If STFU asked for donations, I would donate here as well. Does that mean I agree with everything that is written here?
I also think that the comment section of FOFOA’s blog should be devoted to discussing aspects of Freegold in line with what he has in the masthead of his blog,
“A Tribute to the Thoughts of Another and his Friend"
So, to use an animal analogy (I am an animal lover after all), when someone pollutes the comment section with excrement, I get my shovel out and scoop it up so that the kitties don’t track it in when they come in the house.
Incidentally, June marks the 1 yr anniversary when another poster calling himself 60253 began posting comments on FOFOA’s blog. Maybe you aren’t aware of this, Sugar Lover, but 60253 was ANOTHER’s ID on an old gold forum.
This fake another also wrote in the style of ANOTHER. This person was called out on it and within two days he was gone and hopefully learned his lesson.
Perhaps like immunizations that one gives their cats, the process has to be repeated each year.
So yesterday after this new fake another appeared, he was bitch slapped at FOFOA’s place. Hard.
Maybe that is all it will take this time too.
Time will indeed prove all things.
Sat Jun 29, 06:41:00 PM GMT+1
@ Gary Wales,
Maybe you can let some nice family adopt your cats, and you can go buy yourself some nice, fine sandpaper.
That way no one gets hurt (except the sandpaper) trying to distinguish between sanity,freegolders, your kitties and one's nakedeness.
Sat Jun 29, 06:56:00 PM GMT+1
------------ these FOFOA-related comments were from "Sunday metals pre-game, 6/16 [update]"
It would appear poor old Fofoa is a bit confused at the moment, and hence his followers too.
A couple of quotes from FOA in his latest post (the first one was actually highighted by Fofoa):
'Now, here at $250 gold, Another presents a case for the destruction of the pricing market mechanism and still says, buy gold for the long haul. A concept, I might add that fundamentally offers the most bullish case for physical gold, while posing a worst case scenario for mine stocks.'
'Because all of their holdings are valued upon a marketplace that establishes a price with even more derivative trading, the expected failure of those contracts will crush the quoted price.'
'Having said that, paper gold may rally, gold stocks could storm up and physical could just sit there'.
And a quick quote from Fofoa himself:
'Also, note that these few days below marked the last time that physical gold would ever be that cheap'
So, Another & FOA were predicting in April 1999 that the falling gold price was evidence that paper and physical were separating and that mining shares would become worthless whilst physical gold would fly to the moon.
We all know what followed, and no wonder that FOA vanished, no doubt embarrassed that his predictions failed to come true.
But the irony of this piece of timing, is that now Fofoa is using these FOA nuggets to demonstrate that HE is correct this time, that the transition is finally upon us!
It's bemusing, and quite funny, to see a quite large group of followers hang on the words of gurus, even when the flaw in their reasoning indicates something quite worrying.
So, Duggo et al, I'll have a wager that the freegold contrary indicator flags now as the perfect time to buy miners/paper gold/physical gold/silver, as the bottom is close at hand.
Wed Jun 19, 02:03:00 PM GMT+1
I happened to see you mention me at the end of your dissertation. I was very impressed by all the words but maybe the rouge had kicked-in and I wasn't capable of discerning what your message was. A simple bloke like me needs it simply explained. Something about FOFOA and FOA. A music hall act perchance? What was your conclusion in simple words so that members of the jury can come to a conclusion.
Wed Jun 19, 08:57:00 PM GMT+1
aha! I see the light. I strolled over to FOFOA and see he has written another book. I actually couldn't be bothered to read it because like all of the "interweb" sites that deal in facts and fiction, hearsay and wishful thinking I've come to the conclusion that it doesn't matter what anyone says. At the end of the day the only thing that matters is the price I bought precious metal at and what the price is now. That's not strictly true. I don't care what the price is now really as I'm a "believer". Like all good religions I choose to believe in the glorious day when all will be revealed and Gold will take it's rightful place on the throne with Silver at it's right hand.
See I told you the "rouge" had kicked-in.
All this prattle about this, that, and the duck's arse is just a load of talk to keep web sites active.
Wed Jun 19, 09:10:00 PM GMT+1
Speaking of contradictions:
"I'll have a wager that the freegold contrary indicator flags now as the perfect time to buy miners/paper gold/physical gold/silver, as the bottom is close at hand."
"Apart from this place, which attempts to cut through all the crap."
Wed Jun 19, 11:43:00 PM GMT+1
Stuart Unger said...
Yes Duggo, we all know how bitter you are that FOFOA's board ran you off because you kept posting like a sanctimonious jagoff. the more you continuously bring him up here, the more we know how much it hurts.
Thu Jun 20, 12:39:00 AM GMT+1
Stuart Unger said...
I'm sure you "stroll" over to FOFOA's site regularly to check it and then not read the posts. Give it up dude.
Thu Jun 20, 12:41:00 AM GMT+1
@ Stuart Unger
Now here's a typical response from one of the more mentally defective (no sense of humour) followers of the FOFOA herd. FOFOA tends to talk a lot of sense if only in a very narrow and blinkered way. It just amazes me that there are people with the mentality of Unger that hang around on the edge of the "intellectual nit-picking" and pretend they have intelligence by just belonging and associating with the "deep-thought" crowd that inhabit FOFOA's site.
The FOFOA crowd always remind me of people sitting in a church talking amongst themselves about how many Angels can fit on a pin-head until the High Priest FOFOA makes another appearance with another sermon and then castigates his followers for not giving their money to the begging bowl (donation button). He has said that if they don't "donate" he may well give up preaching and ascend to heaven where he will sit at the right hand of God.
I made-up the bit about the "right hand of God" .
What's a "dude" Unger? Someone with a sense of humour?
Thu Jun 20, 08:16:00 AM GMT+1
Hey Tony, do you want to take my wager or not?
Name the stakes, let's do it? $500, or a round $1,000.
I'll be waiting! (for a long time no doubt).
Odd that you fail to allude to Another/FOA making the same mistakes all those years ago as Fofoa seems to be now. Attack me if you wish, I just point out the irony and provide my opinion. Do you not see the weirdness of it? Or do you believe FG is about to happen?
Folks, this is setting up for a huge deflationary plunge. Copper is worth watching, at critical support. The Chinese (I reckon) are forcing events by squeezing their shadow banking system, and I have no doubt what will follow shortly, maybe later this year, maybe early next year: the biggest load of money printing the world has ever seen.
I know many here are traders, but this is the time to fill your boots with physical gold, ready for the next huge move up, or preferably to hold on to through the eye of the storm.
@Duggo, Stu Unger is dead already, so perhaps he is sat at the left-hand of Another in FG heaven?
Thu Jun 20, 12:01:00 PM GMT+1
I'm not in the business of making future predictions. Like duggo, gambling is no longer my forte. Even if it were, I'm afraid I wouldn't take a wager from someone assuming a revolving door of aliases. So yes, Gary, you'll be waiting a long time :)
Beyond that, I think we both have the same sentiment toward gold, so no need to feel so picked on. I was simply amused by the irony of your two statements and your obvious venom toward FOFOA. Just gave me a good chuckle, that's all.
Thu Jun 20, 03:56:00 PM GMT+1
@Tony, I have read all of Fofoa from PDF files. 2008/09 were interesting!
I agree that gold is coming back to the centre of the monetary system, and free from paper, and at a floating rate.
All the other Fofoa-deduced fluffy stuff is pure conjecture, as is the timing.
Anyhow, I predict that blog will close once gold passes $2,000 next year.
Sat Jun 22, 09:32:00 PM GMT+1
"I agree that gold is coming back to the centre of the monetary system, and free from paper, and at a floating rate."
Well then, it appears we're not all that far apart in our thinking afterall :)
Sun Jun 23, 04:17:00 PM GMT+1