What if ....

.... the facts change. Will you change your mind?
It's a simple question that everyone answers "Yes" to. But would you? Can you?
Are you capable of holding two opposing arguments in your head knowing one has to be wrong? Simply to fully understand the other persons argument completely. 
Well that is the position we find ourselves in here at Screwtape sometimes. Do we release the story or information even though it may not agree with our personal investment goals, or even the general good?  

Every trade has two sides. So you have to ask yourself why is the other guy selling that stock, house etc etc.  What is the motivation of every person posting a story, opinion, stock tip etc etc.
We will be publishing a couple of articles this week to force you to think and not take the easy way out of getting investment advice from anonymous bloggers. 

I am not telling you all this to drum up attention. I am telling you to keep what I have written here in mind when you read the articles.  

Edit: Victorthecleaner has written an excellent article here: Backwardation and Declining COMEX Inventory that is well worth reading. 


Alain said...

Hummm, provocating, I like it. Looking forward to read those articles.


Robert LeRoy Parker said...

Victor has me convinced that backwardation is the key to understanding the silver market.

Here is a link with quite a few good charts showing Silver overlayed SIFO. Near the end there is one going back to 2006.

Market Curiosity Link

I am searching for later dated charts and may make one myself if I can't find it. I am curious to see what it looked like before the inverted treasury yield curve appeared.

Robert LeRoy Parker said...

Here is the current SIFO Silver chart.

Market Curiosity

Robert LeRoy Parker said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Robert LeRoy Parker said...

Here is a direct link to the long term SIFO Silver chart.


It would be interesting to see if there is a correlation between the inversion of the SIFO rates and the directionality of silver. Anyone know how to do this?

Louis Cypher said...

Hey Robert,
Some pretty busy charts you got there :)
Here is all the data. http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=56

Economic Analyst said...

Yes there are 2 sides to every trade..the right one and the wrong one. END OF STORY

Anonymous said...

In case you are still following this: I have written a brief explanation of why neither shrinking COMEX inventory nor late deliveries are any surprise: Backwardation and Declining COMEX Inventory