Thursday update 7/3/2014


Happy 4th of July to all of our dedicated readers in banker-occupied America.

Just one chart for you. With my first target ($1335) from last week's post hit, I decided to sell. Frankly, this is a tough market to trade right now. A lot of conflicting signals from my charts. I'm still bullish, but the metals are so overbought presently, that I'm going to watch from the sidelines.

9 comments:

ssgtrader said...

Good call. If PM is strong I think can try to buy back at 20DMA.

GM Jenkins said...

Hi ssg -
Do you mean 200 day or 20? At any rate, I agree, both are around $1290. I want to at least see a bounce off of the 20-day EMA, at around $1300 here. It's not a good long-term sign when, e.g. the RSI for silver hit a level that's only been touched 7 or 8 times in the last 20 years -- and the silver price hasn't even come close to making a year-to-date high yet! I have my eye on the $20.40 and $21.40 levels for silver (looking for a bounce or a break, respectively) to decide whether this rally will have legs. But I must say, if gold gets to $1375 and silver to $22, it will be tempting to short.

Eric Original said...

If gold fails here, without taking out the March high (i.e. a lower high), then I think the chart is going to look pretty dreadful.

ssgtrader said...

I was referring to the DMA 20, if it is strong it should bounce off from there. Gold chart is indeed confusing. I think that is because if you look at the long term average, they are flat so this is a side way trading market.

ssgtrader said...

Hi GM and other expert out there, what do you think is the impact of the new silver and gold fix method ?

Warren James said...

We had an interesting draw-down during the Asian session. GM, I noticed over the weekend your three-line break had drawn a 4th bar. Will be interesting to see what Monday's close will be.

GM Jenkins said...

Hi ssg - I'm not the man to ask about that stuff. Look, there's a lot of stuff I'm damn good at--riding baby elephants, speed-eating lobsters, knitting assless chaps--of which TA is one. But understanding how markets work-- that has never been my cup of tea.

And Warren good catch - both 3-line breaks added 4th bars last Friday.Thinking about some OTM calls in GLD and SLV tomorrow. Gold bounced off the 50 day. Still above the 144-day too. No technical damage yet, other than the violence of the move.

ssgtrader said...

Gold at $1286 is an interesting level to try

ssgtrader said...

GM, fundamental does affect price. If there is fundamental backing, we can be more certain in the direction when we analyze charts.