Checking in

Hello friends,
As I mentioned in a previous comment, I'm on a brief sabbatical from STFU. But I see our friend Gary requested a chart a while back, so here are six (no financial repression here!).

First, a big picture view of gold.

Looking at 5 wk exponential moving averages in 5 major currencies, we see (1) the 2013 crash was minor in the big picture, but (2), (as I've been saying since then) that marked the end of the bull market of 2001-2011, and consequently, it would take some time before the next up-leg. Regarding which (and I'm in complete agreement with the most rabid gold bugs here) is on its way. Just not yet.

Incidentally, I have to laugh at the establishment types and apologists who think gold has no tie-in to macroeconomic fundamentals anymore. I.e. the blinkered ones who willfully refuse to see the tie-in between the growing debt (and consequent income inequality) since the 1970s and the jettisoning of what was left of the gold standard.

... e.g. note when the wage curves actually flatten, and where the New York Times puts the vertical demarcation here:

If you integrate under (Productivity - Wage),  you get ($$ stolen by Financial Parasites)
As I predicted it would do when I unveiled this chart many months ago, gold hit the MA-rainbow and has turned, just as it has done in previous corrections. Keep your eye on the horizontal green RSI line above.

 The truth is, interest rates measured in gold and silver cannot continue to rise. They will turn. The time approaches apace.

Note, this here chart once again was on the money re: timing the January gold rally, but wasn't confirmed by the silver proxy (GLD:GDXJ)

I had begun work on a 2015 post but in addition to my recent workload, rang in the New Year with the flu. But rest assured, some of the material is sitting in my vault and will be unveiled in due time.
Take care-


GM Jenkins said...

Re-reading my post now, I noticed in the first chart, the macro trends both up (1999) and down (2011) begun when all currencies hit a singularity of sorts. Doesn't seem dependent on my choice of start pt. Something to keep an eye on -- convergence in multiple currencies.

costata said...

Nice to see you back in the saddle GM (albeit briefly). Thanks for the TA update and the seditious remarks about the fundamentals.


Gary Morgan said...

Thanks for the update GM.

TA points to a continuation of the consolidation period for gold, before it heads upwards once more.

Macro data (and narratives)seem to be pointing to the end of the consolidation being very near (more inflating needed to fight the dreaded deflation, and central banks losing the appearance of control).

Tick tock, the sale of the century continues.


(Note the full stop after Cheers Costata, which denotes the end of a sentence).

AdvocatusDiaboli said...

thanks for the work and thought you put in there GM, really appreciated.
Not 100% sure about the correlations you made, but great approach to (re)consider things.
Greets, AD