So it's looking my interpretation from 3 weeks ago was correct: we merely had a short bull cycle in gold (~3 months) within a major 2 years (and counting) downtrend ... and that bull cycle is over. I suspected last week's action was a bull trap, and it looks like my suspicions were well-founded. Like clockwork, the 144-day MA was touched immediately on Monday, but it was all downhill from there. 
Because I'm looking for a sign that the major post-August-2011 downtrend is over, at this point I much prefer weekly closing charts to daily candlesticks. Baked into the weekly closing cake is some clue about what the biggest players are willing to hold going into a weekend. Perhaps as a consequence, with the exception of the post-QE-3 rally last autumn (also ~3 months), the 20-30 week MA ribbon (green, below) has been stout resistance. Note that gold finished the week right below it:
So, it seems to me the downtrend will continue ... although more or less sideways action here is also possible (surely fundamentals must matter somewhat??). Perhaps gold will remain stagnant till the spring, making a double bottom on a monthly closing basis where the blue trend line crosses the 38% Fib line? Of course, even if that scenario holds true, there could still be a lot of intra-month volatility.
