The question is, can it break on through to the other side?
I'm not convinced, and took profits on my longs, opened when my trademark weekly 3-line break charts (see third, fourth charts below) gave me the signal. Looking at those, we've seen three consecutive red trend-reversal bars before during this long bear stretch... a fourth (and especially a fifth) would be highly auspicious. A few more red bars, and the general upward trend since 2011 would be damaged. That would be a big deal. As of now, not so much. So I'm giving it a few more weeks before making any bottom calls.
Silver has broken through the long term log-parabola, though (see fifth chart below) -- so a very good sign.
Why am I not more bullish? (see chart after break)
