Reflection on WB Claims (Guest post by Warren)

NOTE: If you haven't already, please read Louis Cypher’s WB Disclaimer if you haven’t already. (Also recommend reading about Louis' Free Silver, and maybe also VictorTheCleaner's Freesilver). My Disclaimer: I need to get write down the things rattling around in my head - just observations, references and questions.

People seem to have generally taken sides in the Wynter Benton story. Unfortunately for the naysayers, the story won’t die because while it’s possible to call BS on the claim itself, it’s not possible to refute the fact that a claim was made. The claim is that someone is taking on JPM in the silver pits and got an 80% premium when they last stood for delivery at the Comex.

The two main arguments against the validity of the claims centre on the ‘rules’ of the game and the technical knowledge of Amber/Wynter. The first rests on the assumption that the Comex and JPM are in fact playing by the rules. The second rebuttal rests on the assumption that Amber (a chosen spokesperson) needs to be a professional options trader and have the same vernacular as such. Life is too short; on with the show. In my own household, I received theatre and drama in such a large dose that I nearly choked to death. My enthusiasm should be curbed at this point, yet I cannot. The claims are too interesting and as an investor I have the responsibility to chart the most relevant and likely future outcomes.

As you may know, Amber recently spoke [02-Mar-2011] and updated that their raid on Comex was successful. Hot stuff! Earlier [14-Feb-2011] they had stated their definitions - that if Silver traded above $37/ounce that was a win for them (this appears to be happening – they still have until March 15th). They did claim that silver would trade above $40 … didn’t happen. Okay, why not? Well, turns out the usual suspects added more silver shorts during this time period. Was the group confounded by this? Yes. wynter_benton thought this important enough to reappear and throw the question to the Yahoo boards [05-Mar-2011]. So in the face of incredible buying firepower, silver price manages a ferocious but apparently restrained pace. Why is that? Focus has turned now to some bigger questions – if the price really has a glass ceiling of derivatives at the $36/ounce level, yet the market is confronted with nuclear demand for physical silver – what happens? Is this where the pent-up-pressure blows a gasket in other parts of the plumbing? Would JPM really short heavily if they knew they couldn’t cover? Is this where they collapse the market, knowing they can wriggle out? Is silver going to do the same thing as 2008?

Flame away but remember, the claims aren’t mine – they belong to the Wynter Benton Group and as far as I can see, they’ve been in the money with most of their calls (sic). If Amber speaks again, you’ll want to take note because (whether you admit it or not) their questions and strategies are more or less your own questions and strategies – but they have many millions more on the table (than you do).

Time for some gratuitous movie references – the Evil Empire’s willingness to short reminds me of this scene in Return of the Jedi - the rebels make the assumption they are catching the empire unawares...


For what it’s worth – Turdle GG [08-Mar-2011] over at the Watchtower comments thread discusses this far better than I do (the derivatives thing, not the movie scene). It’s his comments that put my mind thinking on these thoughts. I myself should be studying; I can hear my mom upstairs asking me if I’m looking at Zero Hedge again.

7 comments:

Louis Cypher said...

I haven't read Vic's stuff on the "free Silver" concept but I would imagine it plays very nicely along with China's consumption of silver.
The fact that China is now an importer of Silver should be a wake up call for all investors.

Warren said...

VictorTheCleaner's material was another 'kick of the hornets nest', but he did it in a respectful, well-thought-out-fashion in the spirit of 'let's extrapolate here', FOFOA's thesis is solid btw and time tested (buy.physical.gold.now).

My understanding of systems and ecosystems tell me that there is always room for an extra animal in the ecological niche - even when it doesn't seem like it should be there. Freesilver could be that animal ... imperfect and crippled but real.

The thing for me about freegold is that the primary benefactors of the phase transition are the central banks/elites who keep hold of their reins of power - to this end alone I accept the freegold thesis as the only viable eventuality to a collapse. i.e. the people in power stay in power at the expense of the little people.

So the physical silver story is interesting from the perspective that it is likely to remain a 'store of value' for the common people, much to the frustration of the central banks who only have paper to mess with it. Even if hoarding kills off some industrial consumption via higher prices, then moving past peak silver in 20 years or so, this stuff will still hold it's value approximately and then could do so indefinitely - all courtesy of 30-40 years of dramatic market manipulation during a critical phase of the world's development.

p.s. I think the blogger database system is dropping quite a lot of comments on boards in general - I see a lot of people writing about it. Wondering how much dark matter is out there - although again from an evolutionary perspective it's useful - people will only attempt to repost something if they think it's very valuable and as such, only the strongest memes survive.

p.p.s. SilverGoldSilver is correct when he says "I've been writing about Blythe derivatives exposure, specifically in SLV at $35, now for weeks ad nauseum" [09-Mar-2011]. It's part of the reason I watch what he says very closely.

Warren said...

[In my uneducated opinion] using physical silver as a (sovereing reserve) wealth asset is an interesting concept - especially where you have both China and America with historical ties to silver. Part of my original set of ideas when I first showed up at screwtape files was the notion that if China had been excluded from the 'freegold' game by not being able to get enough physical gold in time, then would they not come out with their own cheap imitation product? Throw in there - that the elites might not want India to gain so much power so quickly (due to their physical gold reserves) so try and level the playing field by including all precious metals in the 'reserves' concept) ... is that where the IMF monkey business of 'part gold, part silver, part ...' comes into play?. In theory that gives modern silverbugs a massive payday, but since there is not many (by % of population) it's a small sacrifice for TPTB.

Struggling to connect the dots. How does JPM wriggle out of their short positions? How do they transfer responsibility to another bag holder? The TBTF are not dumb, right? They're just evil and greedy.

Louis Cypher said...

Yes, there are some posts that just go poof for some reason. I haven't had time today to figure out why.

The whole freegold / freesilver thing is interesting no doubt about it. JMO but I only see it happening to avoid a Mad Max scenario where even the bankers would be forced into Tina Turners cage to do battle.

Warren said...

I still have visions of Turd Ferguson vs. Blythe Masters wrestling in a cage in a WWF-style smackdown tournament, the image in my head makes me smile every time Turd taunts Blythe.

Louis Cypher said...

Check out Slamhounds comment on "free silver"

Warren said...

Gresham's Law in full force :) Lucky Slamhound.