Good Reading in the Metals 'osphere

I'm always inspired by good discussion, especially when it's others doing the hard work writing good content - here's my picks from the last month, in no particular order. Many of you will already have read these, so this is more like a personal bookmark with my own comments.

How the PM blogosphere behaves like a cult

I first started seriously browsing the PM blog sites at the end of 2010. I'd traded for years (stocks mostly), but was a relative newcomer to the world of investing in gold and silver. I was struck by the huge amount of apparently helpful online advice, charts, and discussion, all dedicated to gold and silver. I'd never had such a resource to draw from when trading the FTSE, so I became something of an avid reader of these sites. A whole new world was opened up to me: one of Turds and talking bears and Keisers and KWNs and Zero Hedges; not to mention Harvey's Organ [sic] and too many others to name.

In years of trading I'd never come across all this kind of stuff before. Such passion! Such depth of feeling about conspiracies and manipulation. And the stories seemed to work: my new investments in gold and silver performed stunningly, and I cheer-leaded the near parabolic price rises along with the all the other obsessive readers.

But something never sat right with me. Something on which I could never quite put my finger. Amidst the charts and the stories (which even back then, before the crashes, I knew to be demonstrably ridiculous) there always felt like there was a dark side. And I'm not talking about Blythe and JPM here. I was kicked off numerous blogs for asking reasonable questions. The venom I received in April 2011 for pointing out the silver RSI had prompted me to sell my stash (and advising others to do the same) was remarkable.

I switched from participant to observer, and started to pay closer attention. Every psychological tool in the book was being employed: confirmation bias, creation and deployment of memes, use of single sources to imply many sources, aggressive trampling of contrary opinions, herd mentality, isolation of 'us' from 'them'. The works. It was these observations that encouraged me to start contributing to Screwtape, and to look more deeply and systematically into what I term the silverogosphere.

Entirely by chance, last week I came across some research which identifies the key defining characteristics of a religious cult. As I read through the checklists, I was flabbergasted. Almost almost every single one of these characteristics are readily identifiable in the silverogosphere. Have a look at the following list, and see what you think:

Key Characteristics of a Cult (adapted from the research of Janja Lalich and Michael Langone and of Marcia Rudin)

1. The group displays excessively zealous and unquestioning commitment to its leader and regards his belief system, ideology, and practices as the Truth, as law. The leader is not accountable to anyone.

2. Rational thought, questioning and dissent are discouraged or forbidden.

3. Members are encouraged to interact only with other group members. Thus, cult members are isolated from the outside world and any reality testing it might provide.

4. The group is elitist, claiming a special, exalted status for itself, its leader(s) and members (for example, the leader is considered the Messiah, a special being, an avatar—or the group and/or the leader is on a special mission to save humanity).

5. Cults, particularly in regard to their finances, are shrouded in secrecy.

6. The group is preoccupied with bringing in new members.

7. The cult weakens the follower psychologically by making him or her depend upon the group to solve his or her problems.

8. Members often devote inordinate amounts of time to the group.

9. The most loyal members (the “true believers”) feel there can be no life outside the context of the group. They believe there is no other way to be, and often fear reprisals to themselves or others if they leave (or even consider leaving) the group.

10. The group is preoccupied with making money.

11. Subservience to the leader or group requires members to cut ties with family and friends, and radically alter the personal goals and activities they had before joining the group.

12. Cults are apocalyptic and believe themselves to be the remnant who will survive the soon-approaching end of the world.

13. The group has a polarized us-versus-them mentality, which may cause conflict with the wider society.

14. There is frequently an aura of or potential for violence around cults.

15. Cults exist only for their own material survival and make false promises to work to improve society.

Now regular readers of Screwtape, and my long-suffering co-contributors, know that I'm no stranger to scrutinising the information put out on other blogs, and that I've been sometimes a rather vocal critic of how readers are - in my opinion - frequently misinformed or downright lied to. But reading the above list came as something of a revelation. We see exactly these features every day on the silverogosphere:

- The silverogocult's 'truth' is the only Truth. Any different interpretations, or contesting of their Truth is immediately damned as heresy. Their Truth is never to be questioned, and their leaders (we all know who they are) are above reproach. They must never be held accountable for their misinformation, no matter how blatant. Hard-core silver bugs react quickly and ruthlessly to defend their leaders. Conversely, their leaders are to be praised at all times: the silver cult is expected to be fawning and enthusiastic in its adoration of certain hosts, otherwise the hard core quickly whip them into line.

- Group members are quickly trampled on, flamed, or banned from sites if they express any contrary opinions, no matter how politely. Negative comments are routinely deleted. Further, other blogs (such as ours, KD's, Bron's, and others), which actually question the 'facts', are never linked to by the silverogocult, and cult members are frequently warned against reading us, accusing us of being bankster shills and disinformation merchants.

- The silverogocult is self-aggrandising: they have 'information' that the 'sheep' do not. They will be 'saved'. They are the only truly wise ones. Their salvation will come through following the words of their leaders, and brooking no heresy.

- New recruits must be constantly brought into the silverogocult. The word must be spread - tell your family, your friends. Convert them if you can. But don't pollute yourself with their heresy if you can't [note: I'm really not exaggerating here - I've seen comments exactly along those lines!]. Don't let anyone lead you off the righteous path.

- The end of the (Keynesian) world is nigh, the silverogocult preaches. Get PMs, stock up on food, get weapons and bullets. Lots of lovely weapons. And fantasise about being a rich land-owner (grâce à l'argent) and defending your domain from the remnants of a shattered society too foolish to prepare in advance by stacking, stacking, stacking... And in the meantime, it's us versus them: crash the banks (by buying silver, of course), fight the Evil Empire.

I could go on, and do this for each of the 15 points, but you get the idea. And you'll have seen many examples of all of this on a multitude of blogs (which will remain nameless, as it's perfectly obvious to which sorts of sites I'm referring).

What's particularly scary to me is the balls-out use of standard religious cult methodology to impart what is effectively just investment advice. Why would anyone go to such lengths? Some of the silverogocult leaders certainly believe their own words, and do it out of a personal conviction, I'm sure. But one could say the same of David Koresh, so that's hardly a ringing endorsement. And others will be doing it to make a buck: they've found a great niche, and a willing audience, and are now capitalising on this. Others are, it seems, simply paid marketeers for big-name PM investors and companies, and are just using known psychological tools to do their day job.

Regardless of their motivations, cults are indubitably a dangerous affair, whether they be religious or investment. And it behoves any reader to always be aware of such techniques and organised group think when reflecting on what they read. Always question what you read; always fear confirmation bias; and always beware of any ideology which raises the views of its adherents to 'privileged' and untouchable status.

Otherwise you're just a sheep waiting to be skinned.

Bankster Shills

The thing I love the most about this blog is that the contributors are a collection of very different individuals, with very diverse views. I think it's fair to say that we're all generally bullish on the PMs, and that we have declared positions in gold and silver, but apart from that our only unifying trait is that we love debate, getting to the heart of the matter, and seeking to dispel myths and shoddy thinking as often as we can. If we see something we disagree with, we probe and challenge - including our fellow contributors' views.

Unfortunately, this approach has done little to endear ourselves to certain quarters of the PM community. Although that's a shame, it's perhaps understandable given that we're often a bit cheeky and polemic (or just good old-fashioned devil's advocates). However, what is less understandable is how a brand new PM meme has started doing the rounds: i.e. that the Screwtape Files is a fully paid-up psyops front for bullion banks.

The abuse in some parts of the blogosphere has been predictably banal and depressing, spiked by Brian O'Flanagan's recent question about the relationship between ZeroHedge and Sprott's PSLV. Here are a few of my favourite recent comments about Screwtape, taken from a number of sites, including ours (the asterisks are my addition, for those of a nervous disposition):

Tyberious: Those little piss ant, SLV, GLD, c*ck suckers[...]What the f*ck! They shall have no quarter here![...]I know these guys a paid shills for JPM, or whatever banks' d*ck they suck! Look nothing against homos, but these guys are whores! For all those that are new, these guys (KID D*CKINMYASS [sic], and butt buddies) pray on the ignorant and pretend that all is well, like there is no manipulation in the PM markets, that SLV and GLD actually have the metal they report to have and they attempt to spread misinformation and worst of all they f*cking do it for money!

PaidInFiat: Jeanne, eat a d*ck. How's that for an explanation? [and, later] Jeanne darc, gobble a donkey d*ck, you elf.

Silver Stacker: I don't doubt what you say, but I don't believe it either. It equates to me stating that the contributors to this blog like to suck each others d*cks and blow loads in each others faces.

Bay of Pigs: They are useless tools on gold or silver, IMO. Better off to ignore them. They have deadpanning gold and silver and supporting the MSM status quo since I can remember. They don't acknowledge anything being wrong/corrupted in the markets (especially the COMEX).

Green Lantern: That must be where the trolls go after they have finished flaming Turd on the main blog. I guess they need a place to wet their whistle also. From simply a journalistic point of view, did you notice that his entire blog is dedicated to flaming individuals/sites and point of views and rarely puts forth his own world views?

Ledbedder: Looks like the boys and girls at the other blog are green with (fake gold) envy.They think because they write "articulately" that they can fool some folks. Go right ahead, try. I honestly do not know anyone that can make an argument against the PM's not going higher over the next few years. Yes, 2011 wasn't their best, but look at the 10 years before that. Guess a decade isn't enough data to go on. That was my roughly written 2 cents as I didn't get a degree from Brown or HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAvard. One last thing, look down your noses at us because we type swear words, who cares? Tell us you don't let out a good "F*CK" when you bang your shin on the coffee table. Liar.

SGS: Yeah. These morons, especially kid dynamite [sic] are part of a paid JP group to discredit us.

Anonymous: Screwtapefiles is just a front site run by the Bankers. Zero credibility there.

Anonymous: screwtape has zero credibility. The people authoring there have been exposed and countered many times before. It's a site of the banking shills, by the banking shills and for the gullible.

SGS: Dont come back here. You realize that I know who you are now. My tech seems shitty on the front end, no[t] so bad on the backend. You've been warned.

Lovely. What is very striking about such posts (and there are many more) is the level of visceral hatred for those who do not necessarily share their world view or - more importantly - the world view of their heroes. It is also hard not to pick up on a certain amount of deep-seated auto-erotic tension, which I imagine would be better released in a more amorous rather than aggressive way - but I'll leave that train of thought to the psychologists.

However, what is utterly conspicuous by its absence is any attempt to engage with the question at hand, to refute it through evidence, or to present a coherent counter-argument. Responses are limited to either "you're a c*ck sucker" or "you're a bankster shill".

Now that's a bizarre approach. Let's say for a moment (for the sake of argument) that they're right, and the only things we love in life are violent oral sex and getting fistfulls of dollars from JPM. How, exactly, does that refute the facts we have pointed out, or answered the questions we've posed? It's simply a diversionary tactic to avoid answering the difficult questions. So we are forced to ask: why would such diversionary tactics be used by certain elements of the PM blogosphere? If what they say is an open-and-shut case, why respond with abuse and allegations, rather than simply presenting their evidence and explaining their reasoning?

It is obvious to anyone who has ever read Screwtapes that we are not paid up Bankster Shills. We all give our time free to this site, despite us all having extremely busy day jobs and family lives. You will notice that there are no adverts on this site, and there is no donation button either. We make not one penny from this site by any means. We strive to hold the highest levels of integrity, and make full disclosures when necessary.

Sadly this cannot be said for other elements on the web. Some sites earn serious cash from their traffic, and others have direct links to those with a corporate interest in promoting precious metals. Not all sites - and I want to stress that. There are good guys out there. But suffice to say that the supposedly 'independent' content and advice peddled on certain PM sites is often as partisan and sponsored as that which emanates from certain parts of the MSM about which they scream foul on a daily basis. Corporate shills by any other name. I will expand on some of these themes in future posts.

Most of us are long the PMs, and most of us accept that there is a degree of manipulation in the PM markets. But we refuse to subscribe to the cartoon version of evil empires and wicked witches; a world of Zionist plots and farting bears. If a claim is made, such as Sprott's delivery problems or DSK's imprisonment at the hands of the Cartel, or a problematic gold bar in a vault, then we will investigate it. If we find it to be true, we say so. If we find it to be false, then we say that too.

This refusal to blindly accept all we're told, or to unthinkingly cheerlead the latest silver memes does not make us 'anti gold' or 'anti silver'. It does not make us 'perma bears'. And it certainly does not make us Bankster Shills. We value your comments, and we want you to challenge us (politely). If shown the evidence we will change our views on the spot.

We are beholden neither to the banks and Wall Street, nor to those with an interest in selling as many coins and bars as possible.

And it is that which makes us the most independent PM site on the web.

Reflection on WB Claims (Guest post by Warren)

NOTE: If you haven't already, please read Louis Cypher’s WB Disclaimer if you haven’t already. (Also recommend reading about Louis' Free Silver, and maybe also VictorTheCleaner's Freesilver). My Disclaimer: I need to get write down the things rattling around in my head - just observations, references and questions.

People seem to have generally taken sides in the Wynter Benton story. Unfortunately for the naysayers, the story won’t die because while it’s possible to call BS on the claim itself, it’s not possible to refute the fact that a claim was made. The claim is that someone is taking on JPM in the silver pits and got an 80% premium when they last stood for delivery at the Comex.

The two main arguments against the validity of the claims centre on the ‘rules’ of the game and the technical knowledge of Amber/Wynter. The first rests on the assumption that the Comex and JPM are in fact playing by the rules. The second rebuttal rests on the assumption that Amber (a chosen spokesperson) needs to be a professional options trader and have the same vernacular as such. Life is too short; on with the show. In my own household, I received theatre and drama in such a large dose that I nearly choked to death. My enthusiasm should be curbed at this point, yet I cannot. The claims are too interesting and as an investor I have the responsibility to chart the most relevant and likely future outcomes.

As you may know, Amber recently spoke [02-Mar-2011] and updated that their raid on Comex was successful. Hot stuff! Earlier [14-Feb-2011] they had stated their definitions - that if Silver traded above $37/ounce that was a win for them (this appears to be happening – they still have until March 15th). They did claim that silver would trade above $40 … didn’t happen. Okay, why not? Well, turns out the usual suspects added more silver shorts during this time period. Was the group confounded by this? Yes. wynter_benton thought this important enough to reappear and throw the question to the Yahoo boards [05-Mar-2011]. So in the face of incredible buying firepower, silver price manages a ferocious but apparently restrained pace. Why is that? Focus has turned now to some bigger questions – if the price really has a glass ceiling of derivatives at the $36/ounce level, yet the market is confronted with nuclear demand for physical silver – what happens? Is this where the pent-up-pressure blows a gasket in other parts of the plumbing? Would JPM really short heavily if they knew they couldn’t cover? Is this where they collapse the market, knowing they can wriggle out? Is silver going to do the same thing as 2008?

Flame away but remember, the claims aren’t mine – they belong to the Wynter Benton Group and as far as I can see, they’ve been in the money with most of their calls (sic). If Amber speaks again, you’ll want to take note because (whether you admit it or not) their questions and strategies are more or less your own questions and strategies – but they have many millions more on the table (than you do).

Time for some gratuitous movie references – the Evil Empire’s willingness to short reminds me of this scene in Return of the Jedi - the rebels make the assumption they are catching the empire unawares...


For what it’s worth – Turdle GG [08-Mar-2011] over at the Watchtower comments thread discusses this far better than I do (the derivatives thing, not the movie scene). It’s his comments that put my mind thinking on these thoughts. I myself should be studying; I can hear my mom upstairs asking me if I’m looking at Zero Hedge again.

WB Claim Reminder (Guest Post by Warren)

NOTE: WYNTER BENTON HAS BEEN DISCREDITED. ARTICLE LEFT HERE FOR HISTORICAL REFERENCE ONLY.


Recent: Dancing on Wynter Bentons Grave (Nov 2011) and Wynter Benton Report Card Semester 2 (Sep 2011)




For those quick to write the obituary of the Wynter Benton myth, here are some condensed claims (which are on public record!) you can refer to, specifically in relation to some up-coming dates. I am no trader but my day job is to look for patterns in data and analyze structure. The Wynter Benton Group in their last messages started to get more serious in their attempt to get noticed, and started giving some specifics about their plans. Here are the main ones … put here for easy reference and close scrutiny. I too will call it a day on the WB thing at the point where I am sufficiently satisfied that the claims are discredited (so far, not the case).


Direct Claim: 14-Feb-2011 for middle-of-March silver price
"Ecomm, since you were defining whether we "won" or lost versus blythe last week, I will define what our group considers winning and losing. If by the middle of march or sooner, silver trades above $37, then we consider it a win. If during this timeframe, silver trades between $33-$37, then we consider it a draw. If silver does not trade over $33 during this timeframe, then we will consider this a defeat.
That is our standard definition for a win, a lost, and a draw versus Blythe."


So … let’s take the ‘deadline’ to mean close on Tuesday 15th March. I also want to point out that this claim was made when the silver price was hovering ~$30 and was still a dollar below the Dec-2010 highs (having just experienced the substantial January correction). Also note: Three weeks prior, the same wynter_benton was a bit more bullish, with this statement: “Come March 1st the price of paper silver will be over $40 and even that might not stop the raid that is being planned” 21-Jan-2011, this would appear as a weakness in validity (i.e. technically they revised their estimate) although to read the context, this statement appears quickly at the last part of a reply (i.e. was written as an afterthought) and seems to reinforce only that they were intent on taking delivery of ‘cheap’ physical silver regardless of the price (this $40 price call occurred around the start of Turd’s Bottom).

Other Claim about March 1st: (my paraphrase) Comex won’t default just yet (why kill the ‘golden goose’) but they would certainly be doing a ‘raid’ on all their silver at such a ‘cheap’ price to put even more pressure on later months. They are also interested in playing the premium game.


Quotes from wynter_benton:

• “How will this end?” “When the comex blows up on its own. We will be accepting hefty cash premiums to let them continue the game.” 08-Feb-2011



• “We are still going to raid the Comex on Mar 1 come hell or highwater.” 09-Feb-2011



• “No matter what Comex "reports", we will be standing for delivery for physical silver and will be encouraging all our contacts to do the same” 17-Feb-2011

Some Observations:

1. My name is Warren I am a guest contributor to Mr Louis Cypher’s blog. I also have a freaky avatar which none of you will be able to guess what it is unless you have seen the picture in its original context. My disclaimer/foundation for my writing is here.


2. Their foundation plan appears to have two prongs to it: drain physical silver and put pressure on the shorts to capitulate. When they say ‘raid the Comex’ I understand this to mean that they will grab all their physical silver from them and then use that to weaken them the following month. In their posts they talk happily about Blythe running around like a madwoman collecting up physical silver to dilute the effect of the raid, which they will then happily purchase from her. From everything I can see; this is more or less happening ... i.e. the Comex is still having to deliver quite a lot of silver right about now, and they are under pricing pressure. Again I'm no trader so feel free to set me straight on these matters (e.g. can someone give a comparison of this month's contract deliveries vs. previous March months?)


3. Leading on from this, all the latest open interest numbers and metal reports are being discussed very well by Mr. Harvey and Mr. SilverGoldSilver, you would do very well to check their sites for lots of juicy up-to-date, professional, technical and profane details. My only question (to anyone) – is it possible for a last-minute stand-for-delivery? e.g. Monday 28th Feb? This statement from wynter_benton: "... our group will be buying the bulk of the contracts as the delivery date approaches so neither Blythe nor the Comex will have any idea what hit them." 15-Feb-2011


4. If the WB group gets done in any fashion for silver market manipulation then this would be the greatest double irony in the history of the world and I will laugh a bitter laugh. To this end I hope they are taking as many precautions as they can to cover themselves. Plausible deniability, etc.

A story based on falsehood comes undone, but a story based on truth can bear large amounts of scrutiny. For me, the John Titor myth was disproven by the objective claim that 2004 was the last Olympic Games held – because since then we have had the 2008 games in China. [That was curious enough, since he may have discounted or even detested the Chinese holding the games, or even mentioned it to make a point]. Back to Wynter Benton, we here at Screwtape Files are watching and waiting. I don't think these date deadlines have passed just yet. I also don't think the claims were vague. Put the $33-$37 mid march price call in context of when the post was made.