Wynter_Benton update on their recent raid

"With permission, I can update the results of our raid. It was successful beyond imagination but that "success" has spawned even more questions about the price of paper silver going forward. It was reported by SGS that he heard that on Friday Blythe was offering 30-50 percent premium and that at least 4500 hundred contracts will stand for delivery. I am here to give you a more accurate update (and a first hand account of what happened on Friday Feb 25). Our group was detemined to stand for delivery going into Monday because we were not going to take a 30 percent premium on a price of $33.50. It was reported that Blythe offered 50 percent premium. That was not even close in our case. We got over 80 percent premium. That's right. Over $50 per contract on the condition that our group sell all our contracts. Our counterparty even threatened us with the ghost of Herstatt. They openly admitted that they could not deliver even 20 million ounces to us but that if we stood for delivery they would be sure that they make delivery to everyone else before they defaulted on us which would make us 'unsecured creditors'. They told us directly that they could not allow even 5000 contracts to stand for delivery because they could not deliver a mere 20 million ounces. Like Vito Corleone said, "I'm gonna make him an offer he can't refuse." And indeed we did not refuse as this was our intention all along.

These sets of facts from our traders lead us to believe that the paper price of silver may have a difficult time surpassing $36 because if the counterparty at the Comex is so willing to pay north of $50 to dissuade people from standing for delivery yet the paper price of silver is still under $35, then we suspect that losses triggered by derivatives is the main reason for the price suppression of silver. We can see no reason why they would not allow the paper price to go up yet are so glad to pay off the comex contracts to show the world that so few are standing for delivery. In our mind, Comex could default with if as little as 4,000 contracts stood for delivery. We are very curious to see how high the paper price of silver actually trades during this run."


All,
I would like to step in and give you a definitive answer (as to whether this really is WB the author of this statement) but we are all just anonymous dorks. I do know WB looks at a number of Blogs and can step in at anytime to clarify.
The ball is in the WB court. We shall see -LC

Update: WB has stepped in and confirmed "Amber" as a messenger of the group. 

30 comments:

atlee said...

So there was no nondisclosure agreement in this deal? It is ok with the EE that you publize your settlement? Assuming this is real, you had 4,000 contaracts and that is all it took for us to get to this price point?

DayStar said...

What is your source for this? It didn't show up on the Wynter thread?

atlee said...

Louis
I know you are not WB so please do not think I am asking you these questions. I just find it all too incredible.

Louis Cypher said...

Wynter posted this in the comments section on this blog under "Amber" and I cut and pasted here.

Giel said...

WB,

You'll be back at the Comex/ATM in May?
You probably have to que up then. There will be more traders hungry for free cash.

That's billions each time. The FED will provide the money for JPM for free. All that money comes into circulation.
At some point the premium game could become worse for the dollar's value than the QE game.
A vicious circle.

Louis Cypher said...

Atlee,
On the "only" 4000 demand for delivery. I believe it was closer to 14,000 the day before stand and deliver or rollover deadline. So it really is hard to say at what point (if at all) how many stood resolute. SilverGoldSilver may have some insight into this with his contacts. The only contacts I have are in NY exchanges so I don't expect them to able to shed any light on what we already know. As regards the premium we can only speculate.

The last few COT reports have been pretty damn confusing. We already know the COT report is massaged per Harvey and GATA so it's tough to take things at face value from anyone. Especially the Crimex numbers.

Here's my take. Every trade through the Comex and every modern exchange can give you numbers by the nano second. JPM etc can see those numbers and everyone else has to wait 24 Hours before they are available. They have plenty of time to massage those numbers but occasionally they screw up and occasionally Harvey and others catch them.

The excuse that "proprietary trading positions would be exposed" is a crock repeated by crooks. If the numbers were available real time then we might have true price discovery which is supposedly the purpose of futures markets.

We already know JPM and the Comex are liars. We know this for a fact. All liars get exposed eventually as they can't keep the lies straight.

DayStar said...

Louis, thank you for answering my question. Now I have this concern. As you pointed out once, the Wynter group was concerned about their integrity. Now it appears they lied about not selling until $37. Now they claim they were planning on selling below $37. Why should I now believe what they say about Comex being openly unable to cover shorts? That is very important to me, for it for if it is true, the elites are done with their plan and they are probably ready to crash the system.

Head said...
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Head said...
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Louis Cypher said...

Head,
This is place for rational discussions. If you have a point to make then make your point without resorting to baiting and other troll tactics.
It will not be tolerated here. Feel free to re post your point without the baiting.

Louis Cypher said...

Daystar,
You shouldn't rely on anything anyone tells you unless it's your parents. Especially anonymous posters on the internet.
WB in the past has said they may change their tactics. Hedge funds are not our friends, they are not gold or silver bugs. They are simply amoral traders who will do what benefits them much the same as JPM etc.

Mark said...

Not sure if WB is legit or not, but this sure explains what I just saw happen. WE are going to have one hell of a time driving this market higher then $36.
Not that it does any good but keep flooding the CFTC with emails. Bring this stuff up so they can't deny knowing.

GM Jenkins said...

Daystar- I mentioned the word "integrity" in a guest post -- not Louis. Perhaps it wasn't the right word; what I was speaking to was that if this group didn't give a shit about common investors/ PM bugs, their behavior would be slightly different, such as not bothering to update us on why they were "signing off," not warning us how and when their tactics may conflict with ours, not insisting on trying to prove they're for real (including amber's present update, and the other letter from Wynter to Louis a few weeks ago) etc. There are other possibilities too but my point was that any other theories should at least be able to account for this previous "integrity." (e.g. perhaps they're trying to con us-- but as I pointed out,probabilistically, that possibility doesn't survive close scruitny very well)

Everything is relative of course; we're talking about anonymous internet posters ... there's not such a high bar for integrity in these here parts. On the other hand, we should be thankful for these updates, at least those of us who quite rationally feel that with all that has transpired over the past several months, the burden of proof lies upon those who still maintain that WB is a fraud.

What rational actors should do here is suspend disbelief right here, at least until finishing brainstorming what this new post means going forward and potential ramifications. Perhaps I'll write another post to this end.

victorthecleaner said...

The message now attributed to WB was originally posted by the user 'amber' in another thread. I am pretty sure it is not authentic.

Some time between First and Last Notice Day, every short needs to deliver on their contract. They choose the date. But they don't know who the long is they have to deliver to.

It is only the exchange who know that. And there is not a specific long that belongs to each short, but the deliveries are assigned to the longs in the order by which the longs originally opened their contracts. The short never knows who the long is. Only the exchange knows that. So the short cannot decide which of the longs to deliver to.

The post by the user 'amber' lacks basic knowledge of how the futures exchange works. That post is not from a trader.

A second mistake is the claim of what would happen in case of a defualt. The short who may be a bullion bank, a market maker, a mining company or a private investor, does not default just because they don't have the silver. They default only once they have used up all their cash in order to purchase spot silver to deliver on the contract. And if they don't, their broker will purchase the silver on their behalf and send them an invoice. For a bullion bank with head office in the US, default would mean Chapter 11 after they have used all their cash to buy silver in the spot market.

Then, if the short defaults, it is their broker who has to deliver. If the broker is also 'broke', it is the exhange who needs to deliver. But in the case of a broker failure, the exchange can settle in cash without payng a premium.

It also does not matter how much silver is in the Comex warehouse. If you are a mining company and you need to deliver on a contract, you can load your silver bars on a truck, drive to a Comex warehouse and have the silver checked into the warehouse at any day before Last Notice Day. This would still be acceptable in order to deliver on your contract.

Victor

Louis Cypher said...

Thank you Victor,
Some food for thought there.

atlee said...

Well, can somebody explain to me what it all means? I guess I am just too stupid to get it. Are you telling me there is no way we are going through $36? That the global mkt isn't big enough to move this mkt past where the Morgue wants it to go? If that is the case, then how did we ever get here? Is WB trying to tell me that they are responsible for the entire move? I have to say, honestly, I was trading silver profitably from the long side long before I ever heard of WB. All it seems to have done is add a large dose of confusion for someone else's amusement.

silvergoldsilver said...

post link to original source of this non sense, thanks.

DayStar said...

[quote]victorthecleaner wrote:
The short never knows who the long is. Only the exchange knows that. So the short cannot decide which of the longs to deliver to.
[/quote]

Ordinarily that is the case, but it is not the case with JPM who is the custodian for Comex. JPM probably knows both buyer and seller, and would need that information in order to make the presumed offers to settle for cash. I have to assume that Comex and JPM are unified in their efforts, because JPM administers Comex affairs.

[quote]victorthecleaner wrote:
The short who may be a bullion bank, a market maker, a mining company or a private investor, does not default just because they don't have the silver.
[/quote]

There have been reports that China shorted a ton on Comex to make up for the 300 Moz that they did not get back, and then they just walked away from their shorts. That would leave their broker on the hook (JPM?). If China did indeed walk away from their shorts, that also indicates that the end of Comex is near.

[quote]victorthecleaner wrote:
It also does not matter how much silver is in the Comex warehouse.
[/quote]

It does matter, because as custodian of the Comex, they have access to the physical to make deliveries, and it appears from Harvey Organ's remarks last night and from the WB's remarks regarding Comex's inability to deliver that the inventory that remains in Comex is mostly "silver vapor".

DayStar said...

Atlee, I think JPM is trying to stave off $37 for three more weeks. I don't think that long term JPM can keep it from going over $37, but I think they can for the short term if they don't care how many shorts they issue that they will never have to cover. I think they have to keep it below $37 to keep from triggering those derivatives. Letting silver go over $37 may be the trigger they plan to use to pull the plug or they want to avoid triggering a default before the planned event.

atlee said...

Daystar
Thank you for your response. Just what are the derivatives in question that are in jeopardy when the price moves above $36 or $37? I think knowing what they are would greatly enhance my understanding here.
Thanks again and in advance for any insight provided.

victorthecleaner said...

DayStar,

Comex does not have a custodian. Comex has certified warehouses that store the metal. For silver, there are four warehouses managed by:

1. Brinks (security and logistics company)
2. Scotia Mocatta (Canadian Bank, Toronto vault I suppose)
3. HSBC New York (UK bank, US branch)
4. One further warehouse somewhere in Delaware

Inventory is listed
Here (Excel spreadsheet, one new spreadsheet at the same link every trading day)

JPM has nothing to do with storing the Comex silver. JPM has nothing to do with administering Comex affairs. Comex is owned by NYMEX with is part of CME group (merger result of Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chiacgo Board of Trade).

JPM is a market maker and presumably owns quite a bit of the inventory in the 'resgistered' category of the above spreadsheet.

It would be rather helpful if everyone contributing to this discussion would
* cite sources
* clearly state whether something is a fact, a rumor or an unsubstantiated guess

If Louis Cypher can somehow confirm that the user 'amber' here and the user 'Wynter_Benton' on the yahoo board are the same, this would at least allow us to discard all the WB rumours as mere BS. That would be something indeed.

Victor

Louis Cypher said...

Victor, SGS and all,
I would like to step in and give you a definitive answer but we are all just anonymous dorks. I do know WB looks at a number of Blogs and can step in at anytime to clarify.
The ball is in the WB court. We shall see.

silvergoldsilver said...

Louis: post a link of the original message and where you found this please I cannot find it thanks.

Louis Cypher said...

SGS,
Right here.
http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2011/02/wb-claim-reminder.html

Louis Cypher said...

Ooops ... comment section

DayStar said...

Victor, thank you for the correction. I found a link that said that JPM was custodian of the iShares COMEX gold trust, and I made the stupid mistake of thinking that was Comex. My bad, and thanks for fixing that. I did find this little legal complaint about how JPM make money.

Defendants could pledge their silver to the ETFs in exchange for ETF shares, sell their shares to other market participants, drive down the prices of silver through trades on NYSE-Arca and CME/COMEX, buy back their ETF shares from investors at lower prices, and return their (now lower-priced) silver ETF shares in exchange for the silver bars initially pledged against those shares, the real value of which remained the same, and only notionally appears lower because of Defendants' suppression.

DayStar

Brian said...

@Victorthecleaner

have you seen this? actually everyone should watch this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-dBQd16cvg

silverto500 said...

sgs,
see also here, I believe it was the first time "amber" posted on this blog:

http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2011/02/wynterbenton-diaries-or-wynter-benton.html#c2126422598952397813

Regarding the name "amber", it's supposed to be the name of wynter_benton on yahoo:

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_YC57VANH36HQH47LRSNVKSMDFE

victorthecleaner said...

Brian, yes, some time ago, I even read parts of the prospectus myself. This is typical for the financial services industry. It is a teflon contract. They all look like that - take a look at your credit card agreement.

I don't think the language in the contract alone tells you anything about the good or evil intentions of SLV.

Victor

Brian said...

@victor - i really dont want to read my credit card aggreements. im scared. im just trying to get rid of all my debt so i dont ever have to deal with them again.

im so new to all this stuff, im learning really quick though, and wish that i would have learned this stuff a decade ago.